This is the third of four, 42 point Derby Prep races this weekend across the country. There are some nice horses in this race, despite the fact that a third of the field are still maidens. That includes the morning line favorite, Renegade, who did technically cross the wire first in his second career start, finishing in front of Paladin. However, his number was taken down for some bumping in the stretch. He’ll make his 2026 debut while facing some horses that have shown a decent amount of promise.
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11: The $250K Sam F. Davis Stakes (Post Time: 5:30 PM EST)
42 Total Derby points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 Confessional (2-1 ML): Brad Cox sends out one of two sons of Essential Quality in the first of two Derby Points races at Tampa Bay Downs. He was an impressive maiden special weight winner at Keeneland this fall, handily winning a nice seven furlong race there despite going off at 12-1. He came back and had to deal with Nearly in an allowance race at that distance at Gulfstream in his last start. He probably made the right call by dodging that colt last week downstate at Gulfstream, as that colt was an easy winner of the Holy Bull. This will be his first two turn test and he should be tested here as this feels like an above average field compared to some of the recent runnings of this race. His dam broke her maiden on this oval and her first foal to race won her first route in a maiden allowance at Keeneland after two sprints to start her career. He has the rail and should be able to work out a decent ground saving trip. While Dr. Kapur will likely be firing from the outside post, Prat should be able to either hold the rail position or sit just off the pace, depending on what the situation dictates. I think he hasa big shot in this race.
2 – Epic Desire (15-1 ML): The first of two horses that Todd Pletcher will be sending out in this race is coming off a maiden score here last month. He got back on the dirt after two respectable races on the turf. He keeps getting a little bit better with each start, but this feels like a big step up after that score. The pedigree is there as he is a full brother to multiple Grade 1 winning mare, Adare Manor. That one continued to improve as a three year old and into her four year old season, so there’s reason to believe that this colt could be a stakes player as the season goes on. However, I don’t think he’s there just yet.
3 – The Puma (6-1 ML): The first of three maidens to speak of in this race is cross-entered in the 8th race at Gulfstream today. However, his trainer, Gustavo Delgado, announced on Twitter that he is going to ship here to compete in this stakes race. Clearly, the barn has a high opinion of him, and he was well-backed last month in his debut where he was the post time favorite. Bill Mott’s Chief Wallabee was a little faster that day. The dam was a debut winner sprinting on the dirt and she cleared the first level allowance condition when going nine furlongs on the turf. She was graded stakers placed on the dirt in a route as well. Gustavo Delgado campaigned Mage in 2024, so he knows how to get a lightly raced horse ready for races like this.
4 – Game for It (20-1 ML): He was entered in the Holy Bull last weekend, but his connections opted for this easier spot for his second career start. He was a heavy favorite at Aqueduct when he broke his maiden in an optional maiden claiming race there in December. He’s been working well for Chad Summers at Palm Meadows, but this is a big step up in class. I think he’ll be a horse that is better at two turns, but he doesn’t seem to be as gifted as some of the others in this race.
5 – Oceli (12-1 ML): Whitworth Beckman flirted with the idea of running this maiden in the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds last month, but he opted to stick with fellow maidens, racing earlier on the card that day instead. While that was a nice field of maidens that he faced, he wasn’t good enough to win that race. It’s hard to imagine him taking a big enough step forward to beat this group today.
6 – Renegade (8-5 ML): Despite a few decent races, this colt is technically still a maiden. I commented that I thought he was the better horse on the day he beat Paladin, only to have his number taken down via disqualification. They squared off again in the Remsen Stakes, with Paladin finishing in front of him that day. He was wide throughout the first turn and Irad Ortiz called upon him a little early in order to try to beat Paladin to a spot. He was successful with that endeavor, but Paladin was able to tip out four wide and he had the momentum off the turn to drive past him to win by two lengths on the wire. The final time and the speed figures for that race were on the slower side, so as the runners from the Remsen continue to resurface in 2026, it’s interesting to see what levels of success they are or aren’t having. This colt is the first foal to race from the mare Spice is Nice, who was a Grade 3 winner on the dirt. She was foaled by a Grade 1 winning mare, Dame Dorothy. He’s sired by Into Mischief, who is one of the premier sires of this generation. He’s clearly a nice horse as he cost his connections close to a million dollars. In recent years, front end speed has played well on these big race days at Tampa, which would make his task tougher if that pattern were to continue. He’s still a major player in this race.
7 – Wayne’s Law (30-1 ML): While he didn’t beat a very good field when he won the Aventura Stakes this fall at Gulfstream, he is the only stakes winner in this field. He was last seen finishing third in the Jean Laffite Stakes at Delta Downs. He lost to Oscar’s Hope, who was the 1-5 favorite that day. He was wide on both turns, which certainly didn’t help his cause as he was trying two turns for the first time in that two turn, 7 ½ furlong race on the bullring track in Vinton, Louisiana. One of the dam’s foals loved racing here at Tampa. His pedigree is modest and his speed figures are light, however, this is the kind of longshot that can be dangerous in the bottom rungs of the vertical exotics. I don’t see him as a serious win candidate, but he’ll be used underneath in some exactas and trifectas for me.
8 – Max Capacity (30-1 ML): The other 30-1 bomb in this race has more starts than any other runner in this field. He has a pair of wins in the Mid-Atlantic region, but all five of his losses have come in stakes company. All of those races came against softer competition than what he’s up against today. He is trying two turns for the first time today, but I can’t imagine that he’s going to take a big enough step forward to win this race.
9 – Dr. Kapur (5-1 ML): This McKinize colt is a bit of a wild card in this race. He probably has the best early speed in the field, but if Samuel Marin wants to have him on the lead, he’s likely going to have to work hard to get there. His maiden score at Keeneland was sharp and that win looks even better when considering that Chip Honcho, who was the runner-up that day, came back to break his maiden and then win the Gun Runner Stakes in his next two tries. Following his victory, he tried graded stakes company in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill, where he faded badly. He’s sired by McKinzie out of a Kitten’s Joy mare, so there are stamina influences on both sides of his pedigree. At the end of the day, one has to wonder why he faded so badly at Churchill? It could have been not liking the course. It could have been that something minor was wrong with the horse as he did have 30 some days off following that race before resurfacing on the worktab at Palm Meadows early last month. It it also could be as simple as he just doesn’t want to race this far. I guess whichever explanation for that effort will dictate whether or not you want to wager on this colt. I’m leaning against, especially at 5-1, and I prefer the two shorter priced runners in this spot. However, if he’s looking and acting the part in the paddock and on the track, I could be convinced to toss him in, especially if his odds float up a bit.
The verdict: 1-3-6
While it’s not particularly creative, I think the shorter prices in this race have a considerable advantage over some of the larger prices. Confessional (#1) has speed from the rail and should be able to secure a good position in the early stages. If speed on the rail is winning many of the dirt races on the card, I assume Prat is going to take the initiative. This colt has been successful when stalking the pace though, so he’s going to have options.
I’m interested to see what The Puma (#3) will do in his second start. He was sharp against a good bunch when making his debut last time out. I trust the connections and I do believe he’s a horse that can move forward when going two turns on the dirt.
Todd Pletcher brings Renegade (#6) to town for his first start of the year. He ran well to be second in the Remsen after covering a decent amount of ground early on in that race. The speed figures and the final times for that race were on the light side. I don’t put a ton of stock into that, especially with two year olds going nine furlongs. However, I wonder how his running style will play on this course. As a favorite in this spot, it might be worth trying to take a small stab against him.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
