With Churchill Downs purchasing Colonial Downs a few years ago, it makes sense that they’ve tried to find a way to get this track involved in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby. Fields are short for the three day, all dirt meet at a track known for its sprawling turf course. However, in its second year as a Derby Prep race, some big name trainers are coming to town, looking for redemption with some of their runners. 10 horses are entered in this unique, one turn, nine furlong prep race. 6 of the 10 runners in this race last competed in another Derby Points race, so this contest may prove to be useful in helping to sort out some of the form from those races. Post time for the Virginia Derby is scheduled for 5:10 (EDT).
Colonial Downs, Saturday 3/14/26, Race 9: The $500K Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Buetane (5-2 ML, 50-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Bob Baffert campaigns this son of Tiz the Law who cost his connections $1,150,000 at the OBS Sale in April of last year. He was a winner at first asking at Del Mar, but instead of taking on some of his stablemates in the Del Mar Futurity, Baffert shipped him across the country to the Spa, where he finished a distant second to the eventual two year old champion, Ted Noffey. He came back to run second in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes three weeks ago, losing to Mark Glatt’s Runhappy colt, So Happy. He was last seen in Arkansas in the Southwest Stakes where he tried two turns for the first time. He was chasing a stretch out sprinter D’Code in the early stages. He was pushed along, but he never hit the front, fading to be third, beaten a little more than three lengths. Silent Tactic came back to lose the Rebel by a mere nose, but Soldier N Diplomat, who was second in the Southwest, could do no better than 5th in that race. The dam was sired by Forestry and she never won a race beyond five furlongs. He’ll get his stamina from his sire, Tiz the Law, but none of the dam’s five runners that tried routes won at first asking when going a mile or longer. If this horse is going to win at nine furlongs, I feel like this would be the best possible spot for him to pull it off. Early speed was deadly last year during this brief meet, and if that is holding true, I think Prat is going to have no choice but to push him early. Even still, I think he’s going to go off at odds below his 5-2 morning line figure and I’m not willing to take that chance with him, because I think he’s going to be getting leg weary in the final ¼ mile.
2 – Grittiness (12-1 ML, 75-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Todd Pletcher is sending a pair of runners to New Kent, Virginia, and they’ll break side by side. Mike Repole owns this maiden son of Curlin, out of the mare, Coach Rocks. He finished second to Courting in a maiden race at Aqueduct back in November. That effort was good enough for him to be entered in the Remsen, which has proved to be one of the more productive two year old races last season thus far. He finished 5th in that race, never really threatening the winner. Pletcher kept him in New York over the winter and he sent him out in the Withers, which was also at nine furlongs. While he finished second in that race, the race winner, Talk to Me Jimmy, was in a different zip code than this colt when he crossed the finish line. The pedigree is there and the expectations are high, but I don’t think things are panning out as hoped up to this point and it’s hard to predict a form reversal here.
3 – Epic Desire (15-1 ML, 175-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): The 5th place finisher in the Sam F. Davis last month is one of three horses coming out of that race and running here. He finished in front of both Incredibolt and Confessional, yet he’s a longer price than both in this spot. From a pedigree standpoint, he is right there with the best of them in this race. He’s a full brother to Adare Manor. While he hasn’t been nearly as flashy as his sister, he has improved in each of his six career starts. While I don’t think he was going to seriously challenge his stablemate, Renegade, in the Sam F. Davis, he didn’t have a great trip, stuck behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go. He was forced to move off the rail and out into the six path, but meanwhile, whatever momentum he had was lost. While winning this race might be a reach, I see no reason why he can’t improve with a better trip in this race. The distance won’t be an issue and he has a solid foundation of races so far. One other thing worth noting is that Sheldon Russell, a Maryland based rider who won with 26% of his mounts in 2025, is very familiar with this course. Nik Juarez, who rode American Promise to victory in last year’s Virginia Derby, was also very familiar with Colonial. While American Promise was much better than his six rivals last year, Juarez gave him a perfect ride for this course. He’s a live longshot for me.
4 – Work (20-1 ML): Doug O’Neill is quietly making noise in some Derby prep races with some longshots. Pavlovian beat the big favorite by a nose to win the Sunland Derby and Robusta came within a neck of pulling off a massive upset in the San Felipe Stakes last weekend. I ignored those horses, who seemed overmatched, and it didn’t go well for me. While O’Neill is known for taking big chances in these races, he doesn’t enter horses if they’re not showing him that they’re willing to compete. That being said, this one that is coming off a pair of turf sprints in California, is tough for me to wrap my head around. The fact that he lost his first two starts, which were his only two dirt efforts, by almost a combined total of 50 lengths, is helping his cause. I’ll be passing once again.
5 – High Camp (9-2 ML): He’s one of four horses trying stakes company for the first time in this race today. William Walden sends out this OXO Equine homebred after an impressive maiden score in his second career start last month at Gulfstream. That was a bit of an odd race where he looked like he was in perfect striking position on the turn. However, he was not keeping pace with the longshots that were circling up to his outside, and he actually lost position for a bit. He swung out into the middle of the track and finished strongly, earning a hard fought one length win. The figures from the effort came back solid and the fact that he did find his best stride after being passed tells me that there is some mental toughness there. He’s paired his first two Beyers, which signals to me that he could be ready to improve here. John Velazquez has been in the irons for his first two starts and he’ll follow this son of Instagrand to Virginia for this race. He’s an interesting new face here.
6 – Lockstocknpharoah (5-1 ML): Another new shooter for this race is this gelded son of American Pharoah. He’s undefeated after two strong races on the Tapeta at Turfway for Tom Drury. It feels like an interesting decision to send him here as opposed to staying at home for the Jeff Ruby Steaks there next weekend. He’s the first foal to race from a Nyquist mare who showed little on the racetrack in her two career starts. He’s not Triple Crown nominated and he’s a gelding, so I’m not certain if making the Derby is a part of his end game or this spot simply makes sense for his third career start after clearing the N1X condition in impressive fashion when routing for the first time. He’ll have to answer the question about whether or not he can thrive on a traditional dirt course. His pedigree seems to suggest that is a possibility, but I do think I’ll need to get a better price than his 5-1 morning line odds on him.
7 – Incredibolt (10-1 ML, 60-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): After ending his two year old season with a win in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes, Riley Mott chose the Holy Bull as the race to launch his three year old campaign. He was well supported by the public, going off at 7-2, he was never a factor in that race, backing up steadily from the ½ mile marker on. Mott went back to the drawing board and since that race, he’s been working well at Palm Meadows. He broke his maiden in a one turn mile race at Churchill, so the one turn 1 ⅛ distance might be to his liking. Jaime Torres has been the regular rider of this Bolt d’Oro colt. He’s probably the horse that I’m struggling with the most here. His return at Gulfstream was visually awful and with there not being a tangible excuse for such a dull effort, it’s hard to feel confident to fully back him in this spot. However, in the same breath, I liked the optics of both of his wins in Kentucky and if that horse is still inside of him, I think he would have a chance.
8 – Confessional (4-1 ML, 125-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): While Flavien Prat is one of the best riders in the country right now, there have been some rides that I’ve seen from him on the Derby Trail that have been baffling at best. I’d file the ride he gave this colt in the Sam F. Davis under one of those rough rides. Allowing Wayne’s Law to make the lead after a 23:4 opening quarter on a speed friendly course, when breaking from the rail, felt like a bad decision right away. If I were live betting that race, I wouldn’t have played this horse after that first quarter, even if you gave me 100-1. He finished 7th that day, but I wouldn’t rule out his ability to compete in a route race just yet. Cox took the blinkers off for that race, but in hindsight, that might have been a mistake. He was an impressive winner at seven furlongs on debut back in October at Keeneland. He couldn’t match strides with Nearly at that distance 11 weeks later when returning at that distance in allowance company at Gulfstream. That effort was flattered when Nearly came back to win the Holy Bull impressively. His half sister, Eunomia, is graded stakes placed in a dirt route and she’ll be the heavy favorite in the 7th race today. Irad Ortiz gets the mount on this colt today and I think the distance here will be to his liking. He’s the pick for me.
9 – Ocelli (15-1 ML): This son of Connect is the other maiden runner in this field, trying to break through in his fifth career start. He ran 6th without any real excuse in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa last month. Prior to that race, he had three in the money finishes in maiden allowance races at Churchill and the Fair Grounds. On one hand, he only cost $12K and he’s already banked $33K in his four starts, so there is an element of playing with house money in these spots. However, I’m not convinced throwing maidens into these graded stakes races is great for their overall development. For me to back him in a spot like this, I would have needed to see him be more competitive in that last start when trying stakes competition for the first time. I’ll be passing on him in this spot.
10 – Clocker Special (8-1 ML, 150-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Rodolphe Brisset brought this Not This Time back for his three year old debut in an allowance race at Oaklawn. While some of those N1X races there can get fairly salty, especially in the three year old division. However, that was not the sharpest field, as an Arkansas bred narrowly beat him that day. While Honey’s to Blame is a nice horse, he was nowhere to be found at the end of the Rebel Stakes. Brisset’s horses do typically improve in their second starts off the layoff, however, I think this one is going to have a large step forward to contend with this group. Cristian Torres is missing the afternoon at Oaklawn to ride this colt today, so clearly he thinks he has a shot. I’m going to take a wait and see approach with him though.
The Verdict: 8-3-5
I think this a good spot for Confessional (#8) to get back on track after adult effort in the Sam F. Davis last time out. Blinkers will go back on this Brad Cox trainee this afternoon. The dam has already produced a productive dirt route runner and his first two starts were pretty sharp. You’ll have to be willing to forgive his last start at Tampa where he never looked comfortable. I didn’t like the ride, but perhaps not having blinkers on was a part of that equation as well. We’ve seen The Puma come back from that race to win the Tampa Bay Derby and I think Renegade is a serious racehorse. In terms of depth, I think that race has a chance to be more impactful than the Holy Bull, the Withers, and the Southwest, which are the three other races that some horses are coming out of.
Epic Desire (#3) is an interesting longshot in this race, who was also competing in the same race. He’s well bred, as he’s a full brother to a multiple Grade 1 winning mare on the dirt (Adare Manor). That horse was pretty sharp from the jump, but she really matured nicely with more experience. I see a steady pattern of improvement for a top tier trainer. He gets a high percentage rider who is very familiar with this course. There is plenty to like here.
The new face I’m most interested in is High Camp (#5). Even though he stalled for a bit in his maiden breaking effort last out, he finished strong while clearing the maiden ranks that day. He’s stretching out from seven furlongs to nine furlongs, however, I don’t think that’s as big of a jump as he’s staying at one turn today. OXO Equine has invested in several high priced runners over the years in order to build up their breeding operation and this horse is carrying that torch today.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
