Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – By Eric Solomon

The signature race of the year at Okalawn Park is the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, which offers a whopping $1.5 million in purse money. Since 1990, winners of this race have accounted for 11 victories in Triple Crown races. American Pharoah made his final prep race here before his Triple Crown victory in 2015. Smarty Jones was brilliant when winning this race in 2004 before winning both the Derby and the Preakness. Curlin won this race in 2007 and while a brutal start sabotaged his Derby, he would go on to win the Preakness and earn Horse of the Year honors after his Breeders’ Cup Classic win at Monmouth. Nine are entered in this year’s running, but we already know that Napoleon Solo will not be making the trip here. Post time for this race is scheduled for 6:48 (CDT).

Oaklawn Park, Saturday 3/28/25, Race 13: The G1 Arkansas Derby

200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)

1 – Redland Rebels (15-1 ML, 175- 1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s): He has been cross-entered in the Florida Derby this afternoon, but Patrick Biancone has indicated that he’s coming here. Early speed is the name of his game and he’s got the pole position in this spot. There are horses that want to be forward in this race, but he’s the one that figures to dictate the tempo. He battled hard in the Tampa Bay Derby at the beginning of the month, leading for most of the race, only to give way at the top of the stretch. He hung around to be 4th in that race, which was his first route race on the main track. I think he’s eligible to improve in this spot, but I don’t think he’s going to be able to get away with slow fractions to steal this race. However, I do think it’s worth paying attention to how the course is playing. The weather should be a little cooler than it’s been, but it’s also expected to be dry. If inside speed is playing well on this course, I do think he’s worth upgrading in this race. I think he has a decent chance of winning the pace battle, but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to fend off the two favorites on a fair course. 

2 – Silent Tactic (5-2 ML, 16-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): This son of Tacitus keeps getting better and better with each start at this meet. He has danced every dance on the Arkansas road to the Kentucky Derby, winning the Southwest and finishing second in both the Smarty Jones and the Rebel Stakes. He looked poised to blow past the front-runners and draw clear in the Rebel, but Class President had a strong counter punch and those two dueled to the wire with the lightly raced Class President winning by a nose. He’s never finished worse than 2nd in his five career starts and he’s proven to be better on the dirt than he was on the Tapeta course in Canada where he made his first two starts. Cristian Torres seems to have a good rapport with this colt and he’s getting the assignment for the third time today. I suspect the nine furlongs will not be an issue, but I do wonder if Renegade is going to be in position to get first run at the leaders in this race. He’s clearly a contender and at this point, he might be Mark Casse’s best Derby chance since Classic Empire back in 2017. 

3 – Blackout Time (6-1 ML, 65-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s): He caught a lot of attention this summer when he was a dominating maiden winner in a one mile maiden race at Ellis Park back in August. Ken McPeek bypassed the Iroquois or the Hopeful and waited for the Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland at two turns where he ran a game second behind the two year old champion, Ted Noffey. He missed the Breeder’s Cup and then went to New Orleans to gear up for the Derby season. He was a little late for the Risen Star, so the plan became to point toward the Rebel here four weeks ago. He finished eight lengths behind both Class President and Silent Tactic, and close to three lengths behind Litmus Test. I thought he was a little keen in the early stages of the Rebel when he was third in a line of seven going into the first turn. He was outside of both Litmus Test and Class President every step of the way.  He’ll have to deal with the latter two in this spot once again. He has been working well over the course since relocating to McPeek’s barn here at Oaklawn. He’s a good gate horse so he figures to be forward again. The dilemma for Brian Hernandez is that Litmus Test is going to need to be sent forward from the outside and Redland Rebels is probably a little quicker early on. I think this horse is in trouble if he’s going to be in chase mode while in between runners in this spot. If Brian Hernandez can let Litmus Test and maybe Bricklin keep Redland Rebels honest early on, while getting this colt to relax while leading the second flight of runners, I think he has a much better chance. This is the spot where he’s going to have to prove whether or not he’s progressed enough as a three year old to make the Derby. 

4 – Bricklin (20-1 ML, 200-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): After watching Pavlovian come back and nearly pull off the 21-1 upset last weekend in the Louisiana Derby, it’s hard to fault the connections of this Nyquist colt for swinging for the fences and opting for this spot instead of the Hot Springs Stakes here the other day. After all, it was his allowance score on this course at the beginning of January that earned him a spot in the starting gate in the Sunland Park Derby where he finished 3rd behind Pavlovian. He wasn’t keeping with the top two in that race and now he’s facing horses that have run faster races than those runners today. Cristian Torres opted to stick with Silent Tactic, so Jaime Torres will ride this colt for the first time today. I prefer others in this spot. 

5 – Taptastic (20-1 ML): We’ve seen some good second time starters make some noise in these Derby prep races over the last few weeks. Emerging Market appears to be headed to Louisville after winning the Louisiana Derby last weekend in his second career try. A few weeks earlier, Canaletto was a wide 3rd in an exciting stretch run in the Tampa Bay Derby. Steve Asmussen debuted this Tapit colt in a one mile race in the mud three weeks ago against a respectable maiden field. He was behind runners on the rail in a compact field, taking a decent amount of mud to the face. He was always within himself and he was able to slip through a narrow opening along the rail to win with relative ease as the 4-5 favorite. Being in behind runners and coming through the rail, it was hard to gauge how good that performance was. The debut runners that tend to boast the huge, gaudy Beyer figures, are typically doing the heavy lifting up front and then pulling away from their discouraged rivals. He was clearly the best runner in that race, and there’s reason to believe that under different circumstances, his debut figure could have been higher. He’s bred to be a good horse and there’s no doubt in my mind that the added distance of this race will be to his liking. How he stacks up against this kind of competition is going to be the big question. 

6 – Renegade (3-2 ML, 18-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): Todd Pletcher picked this spot for the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes to make his final start in advance of the Kentucky Derby. He still probably needs a few points to ensure his place in the starting gate, but this feels like a reasonable landing spot for this improving three-year old. Technically, he broke his maiden in that last race, although he did cross the finish lane first ahead in a maiden race where his number came down via the stewards. The Puma validated the Sam F. Davis as a legitimate prep race when he came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby at the beginning of the month. He’s the first foal to race from a Grade 3 winning mare, who was foaled by a Grade 1 winner. They paired her with Into Mischief, who is one of the best sires of this generation. He has a similar running style to Silent Tactic, but he might have a little more tactical speed than the rival, which could allow him to get first run on the pacesetters. He’s going to be a tough customer in this race, but I do think his morning line figure could be a little low. Making any horse 3-2 on the morning line tells me that horse should tower over his competition. While I think he’s a deserving favorite, I don’t think there’s that much separating him and Silent Tactic. 

7 – Napoleon Solo (6-1 ML, 40-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): It has been reported that this colt will scratch from this race and point toward the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct next weekend. 

8 – Exosome (20-1 ML, 175-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s): There are very few options for a three year old, outside of stakes races, who has already cleared the N1X allowance condition. That’s the dilemma for this son of Candy Ride who was a narrow winner in a slow first level allowance race one month ago. He did finish a little more than five lengths behind Golden Tempo in the Lecomte Stakes three starts ago, however, from a speed figure perspective, he hasn’t shown much growth, despite winning a race in his last start. The added distance of this race, not to mention the huge purse, were things that were probably more appealing in this race as opposed to the one mile distance of the Hot Springs Stakes here on Thursday. He’d need to take a huge step forward here and at this point, that feels unlikely. 

9 – Litmus Test (5-1 ML, 60-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): While I thought that Blackout Time was going to be a bit short in the Rebel, I was surprised at the dull effort that he turned in for that race, especially since he was dictating the terms from the rail. The horses vying for the early lead stacked up seven deep going into the first turn of the Rebel, and he had the luxury of breaking from the rail and holding that position. Class President was to his outside and Blackout Time was three deep. When the real running began, I was disappointed how quickly he folded up shop. I don’t think the winter has gone according to plan for this horse, which could offer an explanation for his dull effort. He was scheduled to make his first start of the year in the Southwest Stakes in February. Between what he was seeing from him and the race being pushed back six days, Baffert scratched this colt of that race. He kept him in California and brought him back for the Rebel. Since that disappointing third place finish, he didn’t fly back home. He’s had a pair of drills over this course in preparation for this race today. Baffter has had success in this race in the past, winning five times (including both divisions of the 2020 Arkansas Derby. With all due respect to Francisco Arrieta, who is a sharp local rider, the fact that Baffert doesn’t have another rider coming to town from California suggests to me that he’s not bullish on his chances in this race. 

The Verdict: 6-2-1

I think the two shorter prices in this field are the two most likely winners in this race. While the price might be a little better with Silent Tactic (#2), I think Renegade (#6) has a slight edge. He’s gone toe to toe with Paladin twice, and once he got away from him, he was able to win with relative ease. Like Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher is also a five-time winner of this race. I think he’s going to get the jump on Silent Tactic, and I think he’s going to be tough to catch. 

Silent Tactic is looking to give Mark Casse his third win in this race and his second consecutive score after winning with Sandman last year. This talented colt has a similar running style to his stablemate, but he showed he can run a big race while staying a little closer to pace last time out. He has the advantage of being very familiar with this track, running in every local Derby Points race here and training regularly over this course all winter long. Cristian Torres is vying for another riding title here and he’s had a good beat on when to put this colt in play. I would have liked to have seen him pass Class President last out, however, he has shown improvement with each start. He is a worthy adversary here. 

While both Blackout Time and Litmus Test have solid two year old form to fall back on, I thought both runners were disappointing last out, and I’m not sure I’ve seen enough to convince me that they’re going to be good enough to be there at the end of this one. I think Redland Rebels is a live longshot that might make things difficult for both of those runners. He has the best early speed and the rail post, so I think both of those colts might get stuck in chase mode. It’s not uncommon to see tracks play very kindly to speed runners on these big race days, so if that is the case, I’d consider upgrading him. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Westgate or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.