Since moving this race on the calendar in 2005 to the end of the month, this race has become the gold standard of Derby Prep races. Five horses, Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming won this race and the Derby. Maximum Security won this race and crossed the wire in front in the Derby in 2019 only to have his number come down. Both Mage and Sovereignty were second in this race before going on to win the Derby in 2023 and 2025 Tiz the Law won this race in 2020 and appeared primed to take on overmatched rivals in the Kentucky Derby. However, the COVID pandemic put those plans on hold, but he came back to win the Belmont that year, which was the first leg of the Triple Crown in that weird season. This year’s edition is strong with four serious contenders in this field of nine (eight when considering the one defection that appears to be a certainty). Post time for this race is scheduled for 6:42 (EDT).
Gulfstream Park, Saturday 3/28/25, Race 14: The G1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘N’ Dale Farms at Xalapa
200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)
1 – Albus (20-1 ML): Riley Mott sends out this son of Yaupon for his first try against winners this afternoon. He ran twice as a two year old, finishing fourth at Keeneland and third at Churchill this fall when facing some nice fields in both starts. He was given some time off before returning in a maiden special weight race at Tampa last month where he was an easy winner. He earned a solid figure and he certainly looks like a horse that could have some type of a future. He’s a half to Song of Spring, who was a Grade winner on dirt at this nine furlong distance. He’s sired by Yaupon, and he’ll be the first one of his babies to try nine furlongs. Tyler Gaffalione gets the call for the first time today. I think this is about as tough of a spot as there is right now for a recent maiden winner.
2 – Chief Wallabee (2-1 ML, 10-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): While I wasn’t sure that he was up to the task in the Fountain of Youth last out, he certainly proved me wrong, losing in a heartbreaker to Commandement. He covered a lot more ground than the winner did that day, despite getting a heads up ride from last year’s Kentucky Derby winning jockey, Junior Alvarado. He was four wide early and three wide down the backstretch. He advanced to the outside of Commandment, while trying to get the jump on his rival, leaving him stuck in traffic. He made the front with a four wide sweep, but a large hole opened up along the inside for Commandment and he was able to take advantage. Chief Wallabee was game and made him earn every inch, but he had to settle for second best. It makes sense that he’s a shorter price than his rival, at least on the morning line in this race. He figures to appreciate the longer distance and by breaking from post two, he should save a lot more ground in the early stages in this race. Longshots set a strong pace in the Fountain of Youth, allowing for both of these runners to come from off the pace to score. With Redland Rebels defecting, the pace should be a little more moderate than it might have been. He’s a major player and it feels like the sky is the limit for this son of Constitution.
3 – Wayne’s Law (15-1 ML): I thought he was a sneaky longshot in the Sam F. Davis last month because there was not a ton of early speed in that race. Marcos Meneses got him over from post seven in the early stages of that race and he was able to slow the tempo down while under little pressure for the first half mile. When Renegade came with his bid, he didn’t have an answer for that colt, but he kept battling hard and was able to finish ahead of The Puma, who he’ll see again today. That effort was notable because The Puma came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby in his last start. Meneses shouldn’t have to work that hard to get this horse to the front in this spot, but I do think Nearly is going to be breathing down his neck. While I respect the heart of this improving Florida bred, I’m not sure he’s going to be able to keep pace with some of the better runners here. I do see a scenario where he’s on a loose lead and could be stubborn in the stretch, but I suspect the bottom of the trifecta is his most likely ceiling for this race.
4 – Commandment (5-2 ML, 12-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): There’s a lot to like with this son of Into Mischief in this race. He is riding a three race winning streak, which includes two stakes wins on this course. He handled two turns without an issue last out when winning the Fountain of Youth. He really got a dream trip in that race though. He was able to save ground on both turns and he got a dream run as Pete Aiello noted “the Red Sea parted for Commandment” as you could have driven an 18 wheeler through the hole that opened up along the rail for him. Irad Ortiz rode him in three of his four starts, including both stakes wins. He also rode Renegade in three of his four career starts including his stakes win in the Sam F. Davis. He rides a lot of races for Cox and Pletcher, but the fact that he chose to ride Renegade in Arkansas rather than stay home for this race feels important to me. While he has some other mounts on the card at Oaklawn, he is clearly there to ride Renegade, meaning that he chose that one over this colt. Both horses are nice and getting Flavien Prat as a replacement is noting to sneeze at. However, it’s worth noting that Prat has not set the world on fire in his 34 starts at Gulfstream during the Championship Meet. He only has four wins with those runners and he’s 0-3 when riding for Cox here. It’s also fair to point out that by winning the Fountain of Youth, he doesn’t need to fire his A race to get into the Derby. This is a spot where Cox can try a few things out with this horse that could prepare him better for the Derby in five weeks. Sometimes those tweaks work, other times they don’t. He’s a very nice horse, but when you start splitting hairs, he feels like the odd man out in this race for me.
5 – Redland Rebels (15-1 ML): Patrick Biancone has indicated that he’s going to defect from this race in favor of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn this afternoon. I’m operating under the assumption that he’s not running here.
6 – Nearly (3-1 ML, 12-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): The Holy Bull winner is back in action this afternoon ,while looking to give Todd Pletcher his 9th trophy for this race. I think the defection of Redland Rebels helps him more than any other runner in this race. He can either go to the front if Johnny V. feels like no one is really pushing to set the pace or he can use his speed to secure a good stalking spot, potentially pinning in either Chief Wallabee or Commandment on the backstretch. His last three wins, which have come consecutively, have been really good efforts. He’s the third choice on the morning line, but I think there’s a bit of recency bias here. I thought his Holy Bull was really good and Johnny V. has been brilliant in helping to develop this horse over the last several months here in Florida. While his dam never won a race beyond six furlongs, there’s a ton of stamina influences in her pedigree. He’s paired with Not This Time, who has become one of the top five sires in the country right now and might be the versatile. He’s trending in the right direction and if I had to bet, I think he’s going to get a better trip than the other two short prices. The pace scenario favors him and Pletcher knows how to win this race. He has eight Florida Derby trophies in his case and he’s trained seven of the last 12 winners. I think this colt makes it number nine for him.
7 – Timeless Victory (20-1 ML): Trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. is planning to hang it up and retire from training shortly after this longshot runs here. He has two wins in optional claiming/N1X allowance company here at Gulfstream, but that was because he was entered with a $75K tag when he first won at that level in December. He was a six length winner when going this distance at that level in his last start, but he really hasn’t taken a big step forward in terms of his speed figures. He also was able to compete with Lasix in his last two starts, but not so here. I
8 – The Puma (9-2 ML, 30-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): Like Commandment, this Essential Quality likely has enough points to get into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. As a result, others need this race a lot more than he does. However, this is also a good class test to see where this colt fits in with some of the better runners in his class. He went from last to first to win the Tampa Bay Derby in his last start. While it’s not always easy to work out that kind of trip at Tampa, a passing storm before the race seemed to change some of the makeup of the track from earlier in the day. There were also some odd rides in that race from some horses that probably should have run a better race. He broke his maiden when winning last out, but he’s done nothing wrong in his three career starts. It’s fair to point out that he was beaten by both Chief Wallabee and Wayne’s Law, both of whom he’ll have to deal with today. Javier Castellano is back in the saddle for the third time for Gustavo Delgado. This duo teamed up with Mage to win the Derby in 2023, so the familiarity there is helpful. At the end of the day, I’m struggling to come up with a scenario where he wins this race. He’ll take some money at the windows after his last start, so he’ll be a much shorter price than Wayne’s Law, who he’ll have to deal with again today. I think I’d rather take a long price with him and use that one underneath, as opposed to getting little value here.
9 – Gregarious (50-1 ML): This maiden son of Mo Town was second in his only career start. He ran a respectable race to clearly maintain the place position, but that effort wasn’t good enough to inspire much confidence in him turning around and running a huge race in this spot. He’s not for me in this race.
The Verdict: 6-2-3
My thought for this race is that Nearly (#6) and Chief Wallabee (#2) are the two I want to key on. Both runners need points here and they both need to be at least second to lock up a spot in the starting gate for the Derby. A third place finish for both is likely going to be enough, but it would be leaving some things up to chance for sure. I think Nearly is going to be one I’m going to focus on. While the Fountain of Youth is almost always a tougher race than the Holy Bull, his performance in the Holy Bull was really good. You can see how Pletcher has mapped out his campaign to get to this point, and seeing that Johnny V. came here in November before the Championship meet to ride this one in a state bred maiden special weight race. They’ve thought highly of this horse for a while and I think he’s set up to get the ideal trip now that we know Redland Rebels is going to run in Arkansas.
I think it’s fair to assert than Chief Wallabee ran a better race in defeat than Commandment (#4) did in the Fountain of Youth. While that doesn’t take away the fact that Commandment ran really well, a lot of things went right for him where Chief Wallabee had more struggles and covered a lot of ground. He’s still young and this is another big test. He definitely could win this race if the top pick gets a little leg weary late. He’ll be the primary backup for me.
I think both Commandment and The Puma (#8) are in situations where they would like to win, but they don’t need to win. If the end goal is the Derby, the plan will be to get them whatever experience is necessary to be ready to fire their best shot in the biggest race in the country. Commandment wouldn’t be a shock, but I think the other two are more likely winners. As a result, I feel like this is a race where you can pare down some tickets to try to get value elsewhere in the multi-race sequences. The Puma won’t be on top of any of my tickets because it’s hard to imagine that he’ll get to a price where I think he’s going to offer fair value. I also feel the top three are just better and they’ve all drawn better posts, which only makes his task harder. I’ll use Wayne’s Law (#3) as an underneath horse in this race. I think he has more upside today than any of the other four longer prices. I think winning this race is a stretch, although I’d probably throw a few dollars his way if he’s sitting at odds greater than 30-1. He’s more of a horse I want to use underneath because I can see a favorable pace scenario for him. Marcos Meneses is a sneaky good rider with longshots here at Gulfstream, especially when he’s on the front end with them.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Westgate or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
