Winners of the Santa Anita Derby have won the Kentucky Derby 11 times, with Justify being the most recent dual winner. Justify and Affirmed won this race before winning the Triple Crown. California Chrome, I’ll Have Another, and Sunday Silence won this race, along with the Derby and the Preakness. Journalism was second in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont last year, but he did give us a memorable Preakness win. Seven are entered in this year’s running of this Grade 1 contest where the runners are scheduled for dispatch at 4:46 (PDT).
Santa Anita Park, Saturday 4/4/26, Race 10: The G1 Santa Anita Derby:
200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)
1 – Cherokee Nation (5-2 ML, 18-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 16-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): Bob Baffert is looking for his 10th Santa Anita Derby win and he’ll have runners in the first two stalls of the starting gate today. It took this Not This Time colt six tries to break his maiden, but his recent win at the end of February certainly explains why his connections paid over a million dollars for him in 2024. He entered that race 20 days after losing in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes by almost seven lengths. It’s fair to point out that there have been spots of trouble in the races where he has underperformed. My issue with this horse is that a lot of problems have been a result of his immaturity. He’s very aggressive, but he’s also kind of clumsy, which isn’t the best combination for a younger horse. He was much more professional in his maiden score last time out, and if that is who he is, he has a realistic chance to not only win this race, but also win the Derby. However, he’s going to have to prove that he can be that effective at this level, while also racing without Lasix. He hasn’t been working like a typical Baffert runner in his last few drills and the fact that Emisael Jaramillo kept the mount on Robusta also feels meaningful.
2 – Potente (2-1, 22-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 20-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): This Baffert runner cost his connections $2.400,000 in 2024 and so far he’s done everything that he’s had to do. He won on debut at the end of January and then he grinded out a win in his first try at two turns in the San Felipe Stakes in his last start. He had to overcome being in a tight spot and working his way through traffic in order to be able to nail Robusta on the wire that day. His recent drills have been a little zippier than his stablemate’s workouts. His granddam was Perfect Sting, but his dam’s other runners haven’t been great on either turf or dirt. At this point, he looks like the best chance from the Baffert barn to represent the stable in the Derby, He already has the points from his win in the San Felipe, so losing this race would not be a deal-breaker to make it to Louisville. He should be able to work out a reasonable trip from his post. I think the plan for the barn is going to be to send Cherokee Nation to the front and let this one stalk him, without applying too much pressure, but also trying to keep Robusta wide if at all possible. He showed that he can overcome trouble and make a run from off the pace. I don’t think the added distance will be an issue. He’s a clear contender in this race.
3 – Vitruvian Man (15-1 ML): Doug O’Neill has a pair of runners in this race, and this one will be longer price of his pair, He ran this son of Vino Rosso five times in his two year old season, competing in two turn races in each of those five starts. Two of those races came on the turf, two on the dirt, and one on the synthetic Tapeta course. He was a winner on the dirt in an auction maiden race at Keeneland and he ran a respectable race in the slop on the main track at Churchill when facing starter allowance company. While I imagine he’s been training well and he’s filled out over the winner, nothing in his running lines tells me that he’s ready to make the leap in to Grade 1 company.
4 – Robusta (8-1 ML, 55-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 100-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): The second runner that O’Neill will be sending out actually ran two respectable races in the graded stakes on the Derby Trail at this meet. He had wide trips in both races, so it wasn’t surprising that he was getting a little leg weary in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes two starts back. He had another wide journey in the San Felipe, going four paths deep on the first turn and staying in the three path for the better part of the race. At long odds, he made the lead at the top of the stretch, only to be nailed by Potente in the final strides. There are definitely things to like about this colt, who seems to be trending in the direct direction. O’Neill has had success in this race in the past, winning it in two consecutive years in 2012 and 2013. I think his presence will make life difficult for Cherokee Nation. That one ran big when things set up perfectly for him, but he didn’t have to answer to another talented colt in that race that figures to be breathing down his neck. Cherokee Nation also has a history of bad starts, so if that happens, I can see this colt taking advantage of that. If he can replicate his effort or take another step forward, he’s going to be tough in this race. I also feel that the price on him should be relatively fair. While he was a deserving longshot last time out, there is no way he should have gone into that starting gate at 67-1. His 8-1 morning line number feels high, but I also think it feels realistic seeing as how the public has wagered on the last few Derby Prep races here. He’s an interesting player in this race.
5 – So Happy (7-2 ML, 66-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 80-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): Of the quartet of shorter priced runners in this race, I feel like he might be the odd man out. He was excellent in his first two start, winning both his maiden race and the San Vicente Stakes with relative ease. He drew an outside post in the San Felipe Stakes last month when trying two turns for the first time. He was stalking the pace in between runners as Brant was on the rail and Robusta was on his outside. He’s been training well since that race and the experience likely helps his cause. However, I think it’s going to be hard for him to run the race he wants to run, and he’s yet to prove that he has a Plan B. I’m also wondering how much farther he wants to go as a son of Runhappy. For me, if he’s on the board at a number close to his morning line, he’s going to be the one that I’m going to take a stand against.
6 – Start the Ride (30-1 ML): Dan Blacker sends out this son of Upstart, who will be trying to improve off his 10 length defeat in the San Felipe Stakes last month. Somehow, he was sent off at only 26-1 compared to the huge number that Robusta went off at. He was a winner in the California Cup Derby, which was his second career start and his maiden win as well. At the end of the day, he’s a nice Cal bred, but I don’t think he’s in the same league as most of these runners.
7 – Intrepido (7-2 ML, 40-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Caesar’s, 60-1 Kentucky Derby Futures @ Westgate): Jeff Mullins sends out this son of Maximus Mischief, who will be looking to show that he’s back to the form that put him in the Winner’s Circle in the American Pharoah Stakes as a two year old. He’s had two starts since that race, one in the Breeders’ Cup and one in the Robert B. Lewis. His race in the Breeders’ Cup was in jeopardy in the first few strides out of the gate as he stumbled and was relegated to the back of the track on a course where closers were struggling to get home. He never fired in that race, finishing 5th. He was sharper in his last start when he was narrowly defeated by Plutarch, who has since been taken off the Derby Trail. He was a little keen in that race and he ended up on the early lead, although that might have been more of a function of breaking well on a day where the three Baffert runners (in the first three posts) weren’t as sharp from the gate. He dueled hard with Plutarch in that race, but had to settle for second. Mullins opted to bypass the San Felipe and wait for this race. That was a bit of a calculated gamble, because while he has some Derby Points, he is going to need more to get into the starting gate at Churchill next month. He had a rough trip in the American Pharoah as he was able to overcome multiple points of trouble. Those trouble spots were basically caused by Baffert’s horses running like a team. While I don’t think that’s going to be an issue today, I want to see this horse relax off the speed , while staying in close contact with the others. If he tries to go for the lead, I think it’s very likely he winds up four wide in the early stages, which instantly puts him at a disadvantage in a field that appears to be evenly matched. If he can comfortably rate in 5th, while saving some ground going into the first turn, I’d feel very good about his prospects in the stretch.
The Verdict: 4-7-2
I don’t think there is that much separating the top five runners in this race, and perhaps there are more scenarios for Robusta (#4), who figures to be the longest price of the quintet, to get the job done. He had wide trips in both the Robert B. Lewis and the San Felipe, and while he was unable to overcome that in February, both he and his rider, Emisael Jaramillo, grew from that experience. That had to deal with the same problem in the San Felipe, but Jaramillo pushed him to the front sooner and he was able to hit the front, only to narrowly lose in the final strides when Potente (#2) shook free. I think he’s going to make Cherokee Nation’s (#1) task very difficult in this race, assuming that one gets out of the gate cleanly. If he doesn’t break well, that only bolsters the case for my longshot play. Doug O’Neill has Triple Crown experience, scoring with both I’ll Have Another and Nyquist. He has done a fabulous training getting Pavlovian to improve his way into the Derby Field and I think we’re seeing him do the same with this colt.
I thought Hector Berrios rode a great race pushing Intrepido (#7) to the front in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in his last start. This is a horse that was ganged up on in the American Pharoah and still managed to get the victory. By sending him early when both Desert Gate and Cherokee Nation were a little flat-footed, he was able to avoid any of that trouble, while also effectively keeping both horses bottled up behind him. The other Baffert runner, Plutarch, was able to put the pressure on and get the narrow victory that day. While I loved that ride last time, that kind of trip feels like it will be his downfall today. He’s proven he can come from off the pace, even when he might be a bit uncomfortable when doing so. If he can sit just behind the front runners, I think he will have a big advantage for the stretch run here.
Potente is the favorite and the horse that is carrying the flag for Team Baffert at the moment. His San Felipe score was strong as he had to overcome some adversity to get up in the final strides. He’s not as flashy as some of the other Baffert runners and his late rally was more grinding than explosive. That may still serve him well in a race like this, especially if there are four or five runners duking it out in the early stages. He has every right to improve and he could easily get the right kind of trip to score here. He might still be better on turf though and I worry the price is going to be a bit low. If the public is enthralled with the Big Beyer Cherokee Nation posted last time out, perhaps that will allow this one to go off at odds close to or just above his morning line.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Westgate or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
