After a few weeks off, the Kentucky Derby Prep Race Series at In The Money Media continues this weekend with the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. A field of 7 has been assembled for the final Derby Points Race contested over the same track as the big race in May.
While this race has produced many useful horses over the last several years, you have to go back to Super Saver in 2009 to find the last winner of this race that would go on to win the Kentucky Derby the following year. Prior to that, Reign Count, Clyde Van Dusen, Twenty Grand, and Cannonade, were the four other horses to win both races.
There’s a pair of maiden winners, Dr. Kapur and Further Ado, who made some noise last month at Keeneland. They’ll be up against two runners from the Asmussen barn, two runners from the McPeek barn, and a Bob Baffert maiden shipping in from the West Coast. Post time for this Grade 2 contest is scheduled for 5:25 PM (ET).
Churchill Downs, Sunday 11/29/25, Race 10: The Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes:
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Spice Runner (12-1 ML): The first of two runners from the Asmussen barn is looking to rebound after a dull effort in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last month. On one hand, losing to the eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Ted Noffey, is nothing to be ashamed of. That was his first try at this 1 1/16 mile distance, so having that foundation could be advantageous. He also was a hard fought winner of the Iroquois Stakes on this oval two starts ago. The flip side is that he hasn’t really taken a step forward to convince me that he’s going to be competitive at this level of competition. He’s a full brother to the Grade 1 winning sprinter, Gunite. That one never won a race longer than seven furlongs, but he was a four time winner on this course, three of which came in stakes company. The dam never won a race longer than 5 ½ furlongs, so despite the stamina influence from Gun Runner, I still wonder if he’s going to be able to thrive at two turns. He does have the look of a horse that could be used in the lower rungs of the vertical exotics, but that is going to come down to price for me.
2 – Cherokee Nation (3-1 ML): It’s interesting to see Baffert choosing this spot for his third time starter, who is still looking for his first win. However, it is also worth noting this Not This Time colt is making the trip with Boyd, who is likely going to be favored in the Ed Brown Stakes earlier in the card, and Explora, who was the runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the morning line favorite for the Golden Rod Stakes following this race (Note: The filly did not ship to Kentucky, despite entering in that race). This colt did cost $1.15 million at the 2024 Keeneland September Sale, so the expectations have been high from the jump. It’s also fair to point out that Mr. A.P., this horse that narrowly defeated him in maiden company at Santa Anita last out, came back to run a game second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. The Equibase figure for their maiden race suggests that race was stronger than the Beyer Figure gave them credit for, and seeing the step forward that Mr. A.P. took last time out, does back up that theory. The dam for this colt was a stakes winning turf sprinter, who was crushed in her three starts at two turns in her career. None of her three foals to make it to the track have found the Winner’s Circle. Not This Time was a graded stakes winner on this course, and his runners have won 18% of the time in dirt races at Churchill over the last five years. That number goes up to 19% in route races here. Despite the stamina limitations from the dam side of the pedigree, his last race indicates that he’s going to be competitive in two turn races on the dirt. I think he has a chance in this race, but you’re likely going to have to pay the Baffert tax at the windows, so I’m not sure the value will be there on the horse that might just be coming along for the ride today.
3 – Dr. Kapur (8-1 ML): This McKinzie colt broke his maiden in his second career start in a seven furlong maiden special weight contest at Keeneland last month. The public sent him off at even money that afternoon and he did not disappoint his backers leading every step of the way that afternoon. Speed was faring well on that oval at that time of the meet at Keeneland. However, that race has already produced a pair of next out winners in maiden special weight company at this meet at Churchill. There are several runners in this race that could be trying to compete for the early lead, which could lead to strong pace in a contest where he’ll be trying two turns for the first time. He’s sired by McKinzie out of a Kitten’s Joy mare, so there are stamina influences on both sides of his pedigree. Saffie Joseph has strong numbers with runners routing on the dirt for the first time (26% winners over the last five years). However, he’s only 4-31 with runners routing for the first time in stakes company, and none of those four winners came in graded stakes company.
4 – Soldier N Diplomat (4-1 ML): The second runner that Asmussen will send out has the distinction of beating Further Ado in maiden special weight company when they debuted in the same six furlong contest at Saratoga at the end of July. Like Spice Runner, he was no match for Ted Noffey when they squared off in the Grade 1 Hopeful on Labor Day. He came back to be a much the best winner in allowance company on the first Stars of Tomorrow card on this oval last month. He makes the move back into grade stakes company while trying two turns for the first time after a steady progression of going longer distances in one turn races. He’s sired by Army Mule out of a Violence mare, so I do wonder if he’s going to be able to stick with the top contenders in this race in the final furlong. The first two horses foaled by this mare have yet to try running in a two turn race. He was a $950K purchase at the OBS Sale in march of this year, so there’s no doubt he looks the part. However, Asmussen has carved out a niche with some very good one turn dirt horses over the last several years and I think that is a more likely path for this colt.
5 –Very Connected (15-1 ML): Ken McPeek is sending out the second and third place finishers from the Grade 3 Street Sense in this race. This Connect colt is the horse that finished third that day, coming from off the pace to get up for a minor placing in that race, which was not the strongest graded stakes race. The pace in that contest was on the slower side, so the fact that he was able to make up some ground to hit the board in that spot feels like a positive. He was alongside the eventual race winner, and both horses started to move at the same time. However, he got caught behind some dead cover, while Incredibolt was able to continue his prolonged bid for the lead. As a result, he had to go wider, which probably cost him a chance of at least getting closer to the leaders. He is making his 5th career start, and his speed figures have consistently increased in the first four tries, including in two efforts at this distance. He should have a stronger pace in front of him to close into in this spot, so at longer odds than his stablemate, I find him to be an intriguing price play.
6 – Further Ado (7-5 ML): This Gun Runner colt came to Keeneland after a pair of modest efforts in one turn races at Saratoga. He faced 12 rivals in his first try at two turns that afternoon. After settling midpack, while being kept well on the outside, in his first two starts, Irad Ortiz Jr. put him closer to the front end that day and after pressing the pacesetter, he made a strong bid for the lead and he opened up with ease. He drew clear to win by 20 impressive lengths, posting a very strong 98 Beyer Speed Figure, which puts him in the same conversation with another Spendthrift colt, Ted Noffey, who has been right around that number in his three Grade 1 wins. He struggled to switch leads in the stretch in his first two starts, lugging in both times when being asked to do so. He was also ridden hard in the middle stages of those races, suggesting that sprinting is just not his game. The dam has produced some quality horses, so the pairing with Gun Runner feels like a winning combination. Ortiz is going to have to avoid letting him go four or five wide into the first turn, but I think he could be perfectly comfortable sitting in 4th, just off the leaders. I’m not sure anyone of these will be able to keep pace in the final furlong with this one, especially if he’s close to his last race. He’s going to be a short price in this race, and this will be a definite test. He’ll be a short price, but there is plenty to like with this Brad Cox trainee.
7 – Universe (9-2 ML): The second McPeek runner gets the services of his go to rider, Brian Hernandez Jr., as he was on the sidelines with an injury that day. Jose Ortiz gave him a good ride, as alongside Ganaas, they were able to slow down the tempo, and effectively box in Vost, who was never comfortable in that race. When the real running began, he was a bit green, but he was able to pass the pacesetter with ease, but wasn’t able to hold off Incredibolt, who came from off the pace to score. While that was his first start at two turns, I would have liked to have seen him be able to put up more of a fight in the late stages of that race, especially as the 3-2 favorite. He now is drawn outside of at least four runners that could be going for the lead. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hernandez try to settle him off the leaders and try to get this one over to the rail. I expected a better effort from him in that spot and now that the competition is stiffer today, I’m not comfortable playing him as a horse that is likely going to be the second or third choice in the wagering in this race.
The verdict: 6-5-2
I think Further Ado (#6) is the one to beat in this race. While he didn’t beat much in that maiden special weight race at Keeneland, he certainly earned himself a boatload of style points for that romp. When going back to his replays, he looked like a horse that was never going to be comfortable in a sprint, but he certainly seemed to put it all together when going two turns. Spendthrift Farm also owns the presumptive Two Year Old Champion colt, Ted Noffey, so they could be turning the page for 2026 with a pair of aces on the Derby Trail.
The longshot play in this race for me is Very Connected (#5) who is the “other” McPeek horse in this race. He’ll still need to take a significant step forward to beat this field, but there are things to like. His last race where he tried stakes company for the first time, was better than it looks on paper. He has made forward progress in each of his four starts, and I think if he didn’t have to wait behind traffic last time out, he could have come closer to the winner in that race. He continues to work well in the morning and the pace should be more honest today.
I was ready to take a firm stance against the Baffert runner, Cherokee Nation (#2), but the fact that Mr. A.P. ran so well in the Breeders’ Cup gives me some hesitation here. I think his last race might be better than it looks on paper, and the fact that he has the fast track to the early lead is encouraging. Baffert horses are trained to be quick early and to finish strong, so I would expect Prat to have on the muscle, especially while facing some stretch out sprinters that might not be asked as hard as they would for the lead as they would be in a one turn contest. Despite the huge price tag, the other foals from this dam have not made any real impression on the track. He is going to look the part and is likely to be too short of a price for me to think about him as a win candidate. For me, I think fair odds would be closer to 6-1, but his morning line number is 3-1. However, he’s one that I would want to have covered on some tickets in the multi-race wagers surrounding this race.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
