This is the second of six stops on the Derby Trail at Aqueduct, in what figures to be the final season of racing at the Big A. The Grade 2 Remsen Stakes is the first time that two year olds can earn Derby Points when going nine furlongs. This race has a rich history in New York with horses like Northern Dancer, Damascus, Carry Back, and Pleasant Colony having won this race. Go for Gin and Thunder Gulch won this race in back to back seasons in 1993 and 1994, and they’re the last two winners of this race to also win the Kentucky Derby. In recent years, this race has been up and down in terms of quality. Two years ago, we saw a thrilling finish with Dornoch narrowly defeating Sierra Leone. Dornoch would go on to win the Belmont Stakes as a three year old, while Sierra Leone saved his best race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic that year. In 2021, Mo Donegal and Zandon dueled to the finish and both of those runners would go on to be Grade 1 winners.
Assuming this is the last Remsen at Aqueduct, this feels like a good way to go out. This race drew a spicy 12 horse field with some horses that cost their owners a great deal of money. On paper, this appears to be one of the best betting opportunities of the day on a stakes laden card in Queens this afternoon.
Aqueduct Race 9: The Grade 2 Remsen Stakes (Post Time: 3:08 PM EST)
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Day One Starter (15-1 ML): Shug McGaughey sends out this son of Upstart for his fourth career start this afternoon. He was an impressive maiden breaker in his second career start on this course when going 6 ½ furlongs in September. That effort was good enough for him to be considered for the Nashua Stakes going one mile on this course last month. He was the even money favorite in a compact five horse field, but he was never a factor in that race, pressing the pace from the outside, but never looking like a winner. I have questions about whether or not he wants to run this far at this class level. He’s a no for me in this race.
2 – Paladin (3-1 ML, 18-1 Future @ Caesar’s): In 2023, Chad Brown showed up to the Remsen with a second time starter that was coming off a maiden special weight win in a one mile dirt race. That horse was a 2.3 million dollar son of Gun Runner who was owned by the same ownership group as this 1.9 million dollar son of Gun Runner. The horse in 2023 was Sierra Leone, so it’s hard not to draw similar parallels to this flashy colt. He ran faster in his debut and he showed more tactical early speed than Sierra Leone did. While he did not finish first, his number was put up via DQ after he was bumped in deep stretch by Renegade, who will get another crack at him today. He was the first winner from three starters by the Tapit mare Secret Sigh. He looked the part on the track on debut, and he’s drawn a good post for the race he wants to run. He has some other major contenders posted outside of him, risking some ground loss into the first turn, which comes up fairly quick here in nine furlong races. He’s bred to run all day and he’s one of a few that has a big shot in this race.
3 – I Did I Did (12-1 ML, 80-1 Future @ Caesar’s): This son of Curlin was another high ticket purchase in 2025, selling for $300K in March. He’s the 9th horse to make it to the track from the mare, Ithinkisawapudycat. Her best runner was Sweet Loretta, who was the winner of the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes in 2017. This colt broke his maiden in his third career start at Churchill in September, catching a sloppy track for that race. He stalked the leader and then opened up at the top of the stretch. He got a little tired late, but he was clear and able to hold on for the win. He tried his luck in stakes company when finishing 4th in the Street Sense Stakes in his last start at the end of October. He is trending upward and he has more two turn dirt experience in this race than any of his rivals. The runner up in from the Street Sense, Universe, came back to finish second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last weekend, so that effort validates a respectable try in stakes company for this colt. However, this is a big step up in class and I don’t think he’s fast enough to beat some of the better colts in this field.
4 – Grittiness (20-1 ML, 150-1 Future @ Caesar’s): The first of three runners from the Pletcher barn in this race is probably the one that will be going off as the longest price of the trio. He was no match for his stablemate, Courting, in maiden company last out. That was his best effort to date after a pair of disappointing efforts at Saratoga to start his career. He faced good horses in those races, but he didn’t really catch the eye in either race. He’s the second foal to race from the Oxbow mare, Coach Rocks, whose best race came when winning the 2018 Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. It’s not uncommon for Pletcher to run a maiden in these New York Stakes races, but this is a colt that hasn’t been close to winning a race yet. He’s a tough sell for me here.
5 – Chambersville (30-1 ML): This son of Giant’s Causeway is the only runner with three starts at two turns, however, all three of those races came on the turf. He just missed two back when he lost in a photo to Behold the King. That one came back to score in a small stakes race at Gulfstream Park last month. This colt came back to win at this distance at Keeneland in a slowish race on the grass there. He was a handy winner that day, however, I’m not certain he’s going to be at his best on the dirt. The best runner from his dam was Bubble Rock, who was a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/16 miles on the turf in her best race. I’d be more inclined to take a chance on him at this distance in an allowance race as opposed to this kind of race, especially when considering the pedigrees and performances from some of the other runners here.
6 – Courting (9-2 ML, 18-1 Future @ Caesar’s): Todd Pletcher sends out this 5 million dollar son of Curlin, out of the Grade 1 winning mare, Cavorting. He’s a full brother to the multiple Grade 1 winning mare, Clairiere. He’s the 4th runner to make it to the track from this mare, and all four runners have been solid. He debuted in a loaded maiden allowance race here at the end of September. Igniter was the winner that day and he’ll break from the stall next to this blue-blooded colt. The runner up from that race, Rebel Instinct, who is a beautifully bred colt trained by Chad Brown, came back to break his maiden last month with relative ease. He’s making his third career start after pairing his first two Beyer Figures. He figures to take a step forward in this race as he only faced three runners last out and was never really challenged. He’s the second of three high priced runners for Todd Pletcher in this race. John Velazquez gets the assignment.
7 – Igniter (6-1 ML): Richard Dutrow sends out this Volatile colt for his first start against winners after a strong maiden score on this course at the end of September. He beat Courting in that race, but he figures to be a longer price than his rival in this race, which means that he could offer some decent value. The dam was a Grade 1 winning mare at this distance on the dirt at Saratoga, and she’s had four runners make it to the track. All four have broken their maidens, and his full brother, Mickswagger, was a stakes winner at two turns at Prairie Meadows earlier in the year. Three Chimneys Farm LLC bred both him and his brother, but they opted to sell the brother. I think it’s a positive sign that they opted to keep this one and campaign him. Both of his maiden races have produced multiple next out winners, so he’s faced good horses. I would have preferred to see him with another start in between this race and his last, but there was a decent amount of time in between his debut and his second start, with about seven weeks in between those races. I’ll chalk that up to him being a horse that needs more time in between races. He’s an interesting prospect as a horse that could be the 5th choice in the wagering here.
8 – Concarneau (50-1 ML): Marya Montoya is taking a big swing by entering this Parx invader in this race today. He was an easy maiden winner there two back after a dull debutante PA Derby Day. He tried allowance company at Laurel and was embarrassed in that race, finishing 27 ½ lengths behind the winner. A win here would be an absolute shock.
9 – Renegade (5-1 ML, 35-1 Future @ Caesar’s): Technically, this colt is still a maiden, but he crossed the wire first when facing the highly regarded Paladin last month on this course. When watching the race back, I think it’s fairly clear that this colt was the better runner on that day. He settled off the pace, behind runners, while Paladin stayed in the clear, stalking the leaders while running three deep. He had to wait in behind rivals to start his rally, and once he was clear, he was forced to split rivals in mid-stretch. While passing the runner to his inside, he drifted out late and bumped with Paladin, who was trying to fend off this colt. He finished a head better than his rival, but the stewards felt that last drift and bump was enough to warrant a disqualification. He’s the first foal to race from the mare Spice is Nice, who was a Grade 3 winner on the dirt. She was foaled by a Grade 1 winning mare, Dame Dorothy. He’s sired by Into Mischief, who is one of the premier sires of this generation. There are going to be some tiring horses in the late stages of this race, and I think he’ll be finishing well. I think the betting public could attack Paladin, seeing as how his Future Book Price at Caesar’s is half that of this colt’s figure. If that is the case, I think there could be decent value on him in this race.
10 – Balboa (12-1 ML, 50-1 Future @ Caesar’s): For the last several years, we’ve typically seen a large number of high priced two year olds debuting for Bob Baffert, owned by a conglomerate of owners headed by SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stables. Inevitably some of them don’t live up to expectations, and they’re usually transferred to trainers that are based at lesser circuits like Brittany Russell and Rodolphe Brisset. That is the case with this $875K son of Not This Time, who was a dull 5th in the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita in October. Baffert sent out four of the six runners in that race, and he failed to make an impression when facing the likes of Intrepido and Desert Gate. He also showed that he couldn’t keep pace with Brant, who is probably the best of the Baffert bunch up to this point. He was transferred to Russell at the end of October, and she had him cut back in distance in the John F. Lewis Stakes in the mud last month, where he was an easy winner. He moves back into graded stakes company, but he has a tough post to navigate, and he’s yet to prove that he can be as effective in longer races against better opposition.
11 – Talkin (5-1 ML, 40-1 Future @ Caesar’s): He’s sired by the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Good Magic and trained by Danny Gargan. Gargan has trained seven other horses sired by Good Magic so far. Three of those runners, including the 2024 Belmont winner, Dornoch, are graded stakes winners. Another one was Grade 1 placed as a two year old. This colt was foaled by the mare Rote, who has had seven other horses make it to the track. Five of them were winners, with the best being Royal Obsession, who finished second in the 2016 Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes. His full brother was a maiden special weight winner at two turns on the dirt at Keeneland, so there’s reason to believe that he can improve when going longer distances. His connections paid $600K for him at the Keeneland September Sale in 2024, so he’s looked the part for a while now. He handled his best at first asking and he showed he was comfortable while coming from off the pace to score. He was a handy debut winner at the Spa when going seven furlongs at the end of August. That race looks a lot more impressive now as he finished six lengths better than Further Ado, who came back to run a monster figure when breaking his maiden at Keeneland, and then he followed that effort up with a workmanlike score in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last weekend. This colt came back to run a distant second in the Champagne Stakes behind Napoleon Solo, who was all over that field that afternoon. By drawing the 11 hole in this race, he’s likely going to have to fall toward the back of the field and find a comfortable spot to settle in the early stages. He’s another runner that will likely be finding his best stride late, however, the trip is likely going to be a part of his story in this race.
12 – Probably Dreaming (15-1 ML): In a field loaded with blue-blooded talent, you have to respect the hustle of this Improbable colt who has already earned five times more than his $37K purchase price on the race track. He was impressive in the Mid-Atlantic region, scoring by open lengths on debut at Laurel and then easily winning a pair of stakes races at Delaware. He was no match for My World in the Nashua Stakes last month when trying tougher company on this circuit. He finished over seven lengths better than the post time favorite, Day One Starter, who he’ll see again in this race. Post 12 is a miserable place to be in nine furlong races here at the Big A, and I think there is a sizable gap in talent between him and some of the other runners that have more advantageous posts. He’s one that I’ll be siding against today.
The verdict: 9-7-2
I think there’s a reasonable talent gap between the five shorter prices in this race and the seven longer priced runners. Several of these runners were bred to be good runners, so we’ll see how many in here live up to the hype. The hype is probably strongest with Paladin (#2) here. He’s the morning line favorite, who is following in the footsteps of Sierra Leone. From a pace standpoint, he does have an edge, especially breaking from post two in this race. He’ll get the services of Flavien Prat, who has been riding out of his mind at this meet, winning with 38% of his mounts coming into the final week of this part of the meet. While he’s going to be on many of my multi-race tickets, taking a short price on him in this race is not ideal.
The top pick for me will be Renegade (#9), the horse that crossed the finish line in front of him last time out. While Paladin was making his first start and is certainly eligible to improve off of that effort, I think it’s a fair statement to say that Renegade was the better horse on that afternoon. He had a tougher trip, and showed the ability to accelerate while splitting rivals, which to me, is an impressive sign from a young horse in only his second start. Irad Ortiz gets the assignment on this one who figures to get a midpack trip here. I think he’ll be coming late and he could benefit from some longer prices that might be able to soften up Paladin early on.
Igniter (#7) is the 5th choice on the morning line in this race, and I do think this colt is interesting in this race. He was third on debut against a good maiden field at the Spa. While the winner of that race has yet to make his second start, the runner-up was a next out winner and has three wins in his last four starts, including a handy stakes score at Delta Downs in stakes company. He finished in front of the $5,000,000 colt, Courting (#7), when that one was debuting here in September. His full brother is a stakes winner at two turns and the fact that three Chimneys opted to keep him as opposed to selling him as they did with his brother is encouraging. We’ve seen Dutrow get the most out of White Abarrio when spacing out his starts, much like he has done with this colt. I expect him to give them a run for their money here.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
