The final prep race before the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby next month is the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. Journalism made his 2025 debut in this race en route to finishing second in the Derby and winning the Preakness last year. Authentic, California Chrome, and Fusaichi Pegasus are the last three runners to win this race and then win the Kentucky Derby. Brant, who was the winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and the third place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, will make his 2026 debut here. Post time for this race is set for 3:41 (PST).
Santa Anita Park, Saturday 3/7/26, Race 8: The G2 San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Flashy Fritz (30-1 ML): This Stay Thirsty gelding has nine career starts under his belt. He broke his maiden in a $32K maiden claiming race back in November. His only start in any kind of stakes race prior to this start came in a California bred stakes race at Los Alamitos where he was a non-threatening 6th. He was recently claimed for $25K by Dan Blacker. While the ownership groups are different, Blacker does have the horse in the next stall over as well. I do wonder if this one is entered to ensure that Brant gets a fair pace on the front end. That’s really the only way I can see this horse affecting the outcome of this race.
2 – Start The Ride (12-1 ML, 250-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Like his stablemate, he was also bred in California. This son of Upstart broke his maiden in his second career start, which happened to be in the Cal Cup Derby in January. He came from off the pace to pull off the 13-1 upset that afternoon. That was a decent effort, but he’s going to have to move forward a decent bit to be a factor with this field. I feel like the bottom rungs of a trifecta would be a ceiling for him in this race.
3 – Secured Freedom (6-1 ML, 80-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Tim Yakteen brings this son of Practical Joke back after a third place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes here last month. That was his first try at two turns, and he was asked to try the route while breaking from an outside post. He was wide throughout that race and had to settle for third place, beaten four lengths by Plutarch (who is now off the Derby Trail). He has a better post for his second route race and he finished with enough energy to make me think there is a forward move for him coming in this race. I see him as the main threat to the favorite in this race.
4 – Brant (1-1 ML, 30-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): The heavy favorite sold for three million dollars at the OBS Sale almost one full year ago. He started to chip away at that hefty purchase price by winning his first two starts, the second of which came in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He wasn’t as flashy in that race as he was earlier in the meet at Del Mar when he was a brilliant debut winner. He tried two turns for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which was also at Del Mar last fall. He got the setup that he wanted, while setting reasonable fractions on a course that played nicely to front end speed that weekend. When Ted Noffey engaged, he tried to fight back, but he couldn’t hold off the two year old champion. He was caught late by Mr. A.P., who was surging late to get into second. Baffert gave him off close to 90 days before bringing him back to the worktab at Santa Anita. He continues to work well in the mornings for a barn that has an impeccable record with runners coming back off the layoff. The fact that he couldn’t finish the deal in the Breeders’ Cup soured me just a little bit on this horse. He is sired by Gun Runner, so there’s reason to believe that he is going to improve throughout his three year old campaign. The biggest speed threat to him figures to be his stablemate, Potente, who isn’t going to torpedo both horses’ chances. He’ll have a new rider today as Flavien Prat is going to Tampa to ride Canaletto. I find that choice interesting as Canaletto is certainly the less proven commodity of those two runners. Florent Geroux will pick up the mount on the horse that is clearly the one to beat.
5 – Potente (9-2 ML, 35-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Baffert only has two runners in this race, which is less than usual for these kinds of races lately in Southern California. However, he is still sending out $5.4 million in horse flesh here as this $2.4 million son of Into Mischief makes his second start. He debuted in a six furlong race here at the end of January and he won a hard fought victory in a small field while leading every step of the way. The dam did most of her work on the turf, which is not surprising since she was foaled by Perfect Sting, who was a hell of a horse on the lawn. His maiden win was fine, but I don’t think it was enough of a “wow” performance for me to get behind him in this spot.
6 – So Happy (2-1 ML, 50-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Mark Glatt sends out this undefeated son of Runhappy who is looking for his third consecutive score. He was a nice maiden winner this fall toward the end of the Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar. He made his next start in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes going seven furlongs, where he was an impressive winner over a few nice Baffert runners. He’ll have to answer the two-turn question today, which as a son of Runhappy, is a fair question to ask. The dam was sired by Blame, but both of her wins were also sprint races. Her first two foals to race have not been anything special. The works are solid, but the distance is a huge question for this one in this race. I have some mixed feelings, but if he’s close to his 2-1 morning line figure, I’ll need to look elsewhere.
7 – Robusta (20-1 ML, 175-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): He’s another horse that had a wide journey in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month. He was dismissed at 36-1 in that race and after staying close to the leaders early, he faded in the stretch, finishing sixth. His maiden score was respectable two starts back, but he had everything his own way that afternoon. With the way they’re lined up, he’s likely going to have to go wide again today. He’s be a surprise to me if he won this race.
The Verdict: 3-4-2
I see this race as a two horse affair, and if the price continues to be right, I’ll take the chance with Secured Freedom (#3). He had a tough trip last out, but is getting post relief. He’s making his 4th career start today and his secured try at two turns. He should be able to stalk the pace early and try to make a run at Brant (#4) late.
Brant is the one to beat in his seasonal debut. He was really good overall in three races last year. While I do wish he would have been able to hold on in the Breeders’ Cup, he still put in the kind of effort that would likely be good enough to win this race with relative ease. He’s a classy colt that has a decent amount of early speed. Geroux is going to have to try to get him to settle in the early stages as he could be extra keen while making his first start of the year.
Start the Ride (#2) is a longshot that doesn’t feel like he has much of a chance to win this race outright. However, with his stablemate, Flashy Fritz (#1) entered in this spot, I do wonder if the plan is to let that one cook for as long as he can on the front end, in hopes of softening up Brant for a horse that is comfortable coming from off the pace. He’ll need to improve a good bit, but I don’t think a small piece is out of the question.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
