Three Derby Points races were scheduled this weekend, but icy cold temperatures across the country forced both the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct to be postponed. Instead, we’ll focus our attention to sunny South Florida for their first Derby prep of the season. After drawing nine horses, this field will scratch down to seven runners looking to join both Go for Gin and Barbaro as winners of both this race and the Kentucky Derby. More recently, Tiz the Law and White Abarrio did pretty well for themselves after graduating from this race.
From a future book perspective, the defection of Ted Noffey from the Derby Trail is going to throw a wrench into that market right now. The most recent odds I have are from before the defection of Ted Noffey, so I’ll hold off on including them for this post. Once the market adjusts, I’ll include some updated numbers for future races.
Gulfstream Park, Race 12: The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes (Post Time: 5:45 PM EST)
42 Total Derby points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 Incredibolt (9-2 ML): The only graded stakes winner in this field makes his first start of the year for Riley Mott. From a visual standpoint, his win in the Street Sense Stakes in his last start checks a lot of boxes. He covered extra ground while being wide on both turns, and still managed to run down the leaders, despite them setting a slower pace. The horses that he beat, though, have not been very impressive in their subsequent starts. Universe was the favorite in that race and while he finished second in a slow running of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he was dreadful in the Gun Runner after that. Very Connected, I Did I Did, and Ganaas, all finished off the board in five combined stakes tries after that effort. The only runner with a win since the Street Sense was the 6th place finisher, Bricklin, who went wire to wire in an allowance race at Oaklawn at the beginning of the month. After taking about 45 days off, this Bolt d’Oro colt reappeared on the work tab at Palm Meadows in mid-December. He’s worked six times leading up to this race. His AM drills have been workmanlike, so I’m not certain he’s fully cranked for this start. He does have a little more tactical speed than he showed last time out, and drawing the rail at this distance at Gulfstream is never a bad thing. He definitely has a shot in here.
2 – Roger That Dana (20-1 ML): This Florida bred son of Awesome Slew has never finished off the board in three career starts. However, he’s been soundly beaten in his last two stakes tries. After a solid maiden breaking score in state bred maiden special weight company, he came back to finish a well-beaten third to Strategic Risk in the Florida Stallion Series Stakes, In Reality Division at the end of November. He did all the heavy lifting on the front end in that race, holding off the heavy favorite, Khozalite, when he was asked to produce a run. While he won that battle, he was no match for the winner, who validated that win by scoring in open company in the Smarty Jones Stakes. This ridgling also faced open competition, running in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at the beginning of the month. He stalked the pace that day after setting the pace in his first two starts. He came with a wide bid, but the heavy favorite, Commandment, came through an opening and blew the doors off that field. He won the battle for second that day when going off at 23-1. He’ll be a similar price in this race today. He has decent early speed and he could wind up setting the pace. He does like to compete and he doesn’t just throw in the towel when he’s headed. I think some of the others are classier horses, but he could be the horse that adds value to the lower rungs of the vertical exotics in this race.
3 – Project Ace (20-1 ML): This colt has been working steadily here at Gulfstream since breaking his maiden in a maiden auction race at Churchill in November. Romans did cross-enter him in the Withers, which was originally scheduled to be run this afternoon. While he feels like he would have been a better fit in that race, it’s hard to imagine that Romans is itching to ship him to New York with the brutally cold weather they’ve been having and the general uncertainty that surrounds that. He moved forward in his third career start after pairing his first two Beyer Figures. However, it’s hard to envision him taking a big enough step forward in this race to beat this group.
4 – Global Aviator (5-1 ML): This Global Campaign colt is absolutely the X-factor in this race. He faced five other first time starters in a maiden special weight race here at the end of November. He was slow away from the gate, spotting the field several lengths early on. Bravo got in to him early and he caught the eye with a bold, prolonged, and wide bid, assuming command at the top of the stretch. The favorite, a Good Magic colt for Danny Gargan, had the rail and battled back gamely, and it looked like he was going to pull away. However, this colt gamely battled back when looking his rival in the eye and scored a strong victory by a neck margin. When compared to some of his rivals in this race, his pedigree is more modest. He only sold for $12,000 back in 2024, which pails in comparison to the seven figures that the colt in the stall next door cost. He certainly could be any kind, but what type of race he wants to run and whether or not he can compete at two turns is still a mystery. He adds a lot of complexity to the handicapping of this race. Seeing him in the Winner’s Circle would not be surprising, but I think he could wind up being a little bit overbet in this race. I think I’d want at least 6-1, and probably closer to 8-1 before I thought about using this one to win.
5 – Cannoneer (2-1 ML): The dam of this Into Mischief colt was on quite the roll with quality runners, producing four graded stakes winners, including two horses that made it to the Derby (Midnight Bourbon and Girvin). St. Elias Stable and Stonestreet Stable paid $1.75 million in hopes that her latest foal to hit the track can get them back to the big race this spring. He debuted against Comport and finished third in that race at Churchill back in June. He was sidelined until the end of November when he came back to easily beat a nice maiden field in a seven furlong sprint. Brad Cox is keeping him apart from his stablemate, Commandment for the moment, skipping this race in favor of the Fountain of Youth with that talented colt. Irad Ortiz keeps the mount on him for his first try against winners. Getting the added distance shouldn’t be an issue, seeing as how the dam’s other runners fared well in two turn dirt races. While he’s likely faster than the four horses breaking to his inside, the short run into the first turn might make it harder for him to take the lead away from Roger That Dana. We’ll see if this is a spot where they will try to get him to rate or if they want to gun it early and see if he can dictate the terms of this race. Either way, I think he has a pace edge over Nearly in this race.
6 – Buetane (SCRATCHED)
7 – Nearly (9-5 ML): For as many talented three year olds that Todd Pletcher has brought to South Florida over the last 20+ years, it’s interesting that he’s only saddled two winners in this race (Algorithms in 2012 and Audible in 2018). He’s won the Fountain of Youth four times and the Florida Derby a whopping eight times, which tells me that he’s not typically looking to use this race for his best horses. He was planning on starting Ted Noffey in the Fountain of Youth next month, until it was discovered this week that some bone bruising is going to sideline him for the next 90 days. This colt had a tough trip when showing little in his debut in New York, but he rebounded in a big way to crush some Florida bred maidens here in November. He cleared the N1X condition with a strong seven furlong win at the beginning of January, posting a field best 97 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort. It is worth pointing out that he received Lasix prior to that start, but he won’t be on that today. The dam won two lower level races in California and her first foal to race is a 14 time maiden based in Puerto Rico. However, this son of Not This Time clearly looks like a different animal, as Centennial Farms paid $350K for him back in September of 2024. He has a nice progression of races leading up to his first try at two turns. There are definitely things to like, but I think others might be better positioned to win this race.
8 – Bravaro (8-1 ML): This New York bred makes his first start against open company after two wins at Aqueduct. Saffie Joseph and Tyler Gaffalione, fresh off their Pegasus World Cup win with Skippylongstocking last weekend, send out this son of Upstart, who was the winner of the 2015 Holy Bull Stakes. He came with wide bids to win both his debut in state bred maiden allowance company and the Sleepy Hollow Stakes. He’s likely going to have to try to tuck in behind horses while breaking from the outside stall for his first two turn test, however, that kind of trip should be to his liking. He’s the first foal to race out of an unraced Tamarkuz mare. He’s been working well at Palm Meadows since shipping South for the winter. While going two turns for the first time and getting the wide draw are both things that this one will have to overcome, I think he showed that he definitely has a toughness that a lot of horses don’t have. I’d consider him a live longshot in this race.
9 – Game for It (SCRATCHED):
The verdict: 1-8-5
I think a lot of handicappers are looking at this race as a two horse contest between Cannoneer (#5) and Nearly (#7), however, I don’t think it’s necessarily as simple as that. Both of those runners are stretching out to a two turn route for the first time and while both are bred to handle this kind of trip, they still need to prove they can do it. Additionally, I don’t think there will be a ton of value with either of these runners. Short priced favorites in this race have not fared particularly well in this race, winning only 2 of the last 11 runnings (Tiz the Law in 2020 and Mohaymen in 2016). Horses like Fierceness, Tappan Street, Mo Donegal, Classic Empire, and Frosted, have all come up short at a small price in this race.
I see this as more of a spread race, especially since I think you can pare down in the Forward Gal and the Sweetest Chant Stakes races that precede this contest. I landed on Incredibolt (#1) as the top pick. He has the distance experience and he was sharp in his two route races at the end of his two year old campaign. Even though he didn’t beat a super-talented field at Churchill, I liked the way he handled his business, closing into a slow pace, while also covering more ground than the frontrunners. He’s drawn the rail, so I think he can tuck behind some horses that I’m not sure are going to be finishing as strong as they could be here.
Bravaro is absolutely getting a class test here. However, he is undefeated and he was impressive when winning both of his races in New York against some above average New York bred fields. He is trying two turns for the first time, but I think he’s going to be a much longer price than the three other horses that are doing the same. His sire pulled off a mild upset when beating Frosted here in 2015 and I think he could try to follow in his footsteps.
Of the two favorites, I think I’d prefer Cannoneer over Nearly. I’ll want to have coverage with both, but I think drawing inside of Nearly, and having the chance to lead every step of the way, gives him a pace edge over the Pletcher runner. I also want to see Nearly put up the same kind of large speed figure without Lasix. Sometimes that can be a big hurdle for some of these lightly raced horses. While both horses have nice pedigrees, I’d prefer to side with Cannoneer since he has four half-siblings that are graded stakes winners.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
