The 4th and final Derby Points race for the weekend brings us back to Arcadia, California for the first of three races in 2026 that will offer Derby Points. The Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes reunites the top three finishers from the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes, which was contested here back in October. Bob Baffert has won this race a whopping 13 times since 1999 and he’s saddled the winner of the last seven runnings. Ferdinand and I’ll Have Another are the two horses that won both this race and the Kentucky Derby. Medina Spirit appeared to be the third runner to accomplish that feat, however his Derby win was nullified later in 2021. Baffert has a trio of runners starting from the three inside posts, and they’ll be trying to avenge the defeat that Intrepido handed them back in the fall
Santa Anita Park, Race 8: The Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Post Time: 4:05 PM PST)
42 Total Derby points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 Desert Gate (6-5 ML): The morning line favorite was the bridesmaid in his last two Grade 1 races, finishing second to Brant in the Del Mar Futurity and finishing second to Intrepido in the American Pharoah. He’s been sidelined since that October race and Baffert chose this spot for his first start of the year. His works have been fine, but maybe a little slower than some of Baffert’s better horses. Juan Hernandez has been in the saddle for all four career starts and he’ll be back in the irons once again today. The dam was a stakes winner on dirt and synthetic and graded stakes placed on dirt. Her first foal to race did nothing, but this one clearly has more ability. He has the pole position and I assume that Hernandez is going to go to the lead with him from his rail draw. I think Robusta or Secured Freedom are going to have to send, otherwise, he’s sitting on a fairly easy gate to wire trip. I don’t love him as the favorite, but his fit from a pace perspective in this race is hard to ignore.
2 – Plutarch (4-1 ML): The second Baffert runner is the third foal to race from the Champion Mare, Stellar Wind. His full sister is better on the turf, as she won a nice allowance at Keeneland in the fall and most recently finished a respectable 7th, not too far behind the winner in the Grade 2 Ms. Revere Stakes. This colt has three starts on the turf and two on the dirt, as it seemed like his connections weren’t exactly sure what this one was going to do best. He has five career starts and all five of them were solid efforts. He finished in the money in three stakes races while he was still a maiden. He returned to maiden allowance company at the end of November, easily beating a large field when going nine furlongs on the lawn at Del Mar. Both of his dirt races were solid, including his rail skimming rally to get into third in the American Pharoah, and if it weren’t for a brutal bob, he would have been second in that race. Florent Geroux will be here to ride him for the first time today. I think the mile distance of this race might be a little short for him, but I still expect a solid effort.
3 – Cherokee Nation (5-1 ML): The third horse from the Baffert barn is one that cost over a million dollars at auction in 2024. He hasn’t lived up to his billing yet though as he;s still a maiden after four tries. Robusta was better than he was in a maiden race when they last met and yet, he’s starting off at 5-1 while that one is starting off at 15-1. In fairness, he botched the break and spotted the compact field a handful of lengths before they hit the first turn. His narrow loss to Mr. A.P. in the fall was certainly upgraded when that one came back to run second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This colt shipped to Churchill and laid an egg in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Soldier N Diplomat was third in that race and he did come back to run a respectable second in the Southwest Stakes yesterday despite breaking from a challenging post position. That was the best effort to date from anyone to come out of that race. The dam was a stakes winning turf sprinter, so with Not This Time as the sire, I wouldn’t mind seeing what this one can do on the lawn. Antonio Fresu might be charged with trying to keep Intrepido either locked in or wide, but other than that, I’m not very bullish on his chances at this level.
4 – Intrepido (7-2 ML): What I really liked about his win in the American Pharoah Stakes in October was that at one point in the race, he was surrounded by four horses trained by Bob Baffert, two of which were really be ridden to try to prevent him from shaking free. That’s the crappy thing about betting these big races in California. Baffert typically has a large percentage of the field and while his horses typically are fast and have superb pedigrees, they get the advantage of stablemates that will be running interference or running a race that might be counter-intuitive to the horses running style, in order to avoid putting another horse in a bad spot. Things did not go well in the Breeders’ Cup for him as he drew the rail and was away slow. He was in last behind a moderate pace and was never going to be a factor, especially considering that was not the race he wanted to run and how that course was playing. I do envision that he’ll get a similar trip to the one that he had in the American Pharoah. I’m looking for him to be tucked in behind Desert Gate and hoping that he can find a way out. He was the better horse in the fall and he’s been working well for Jeff Mullins, who is having a strong meet. While I’d like his prospects even more at 1 1/16 miles, I think he has a big chance once again.
5 – Briggs Armypower (30-1 ML): This Army Mule came to Turf Paradise for a small stakes sprint there at the end of December. He came to town after winning three of four starts at Arapahoe in Colorado, including a win in the Gold Rush Futurity. He was favored in the Lost in the Fog Juvenile where he was never involved, finishing last while being eased up late.Even if there was something minor that was amiss that afternoon, it seems like a massive ask for him to come to a premier circuit and expect to contend in a graded stakes race while also moving up to graded stakes company. While I understand that his wins in Colorado will make it challenging for him to find a race where he’ll fit the condition, however, I’m fairly certain that this spot is not it.
6 – Robusta (15-1 ML): When Cherokee Nation missed the break, he had a direct path to make the lead in a maiden special weight race here last month. That was his first try at two turns and he certainly passed that test, holding off a quartet of runners that were coming at him late. His dam didn’t do much on the track, but his grand dam was a very nice horse who was a multiple Grade 1 winner and a graded stakes winner at up to 10 furlongs. Emisael Jaramillo has had success in his first season in Southern California, and building a relationship with Doug O’Neill has helped his cause. I see him as a horse that can improve, but I think his task will be much harder today. If he makes the lead, I think he’s going to have to work too hard to get it. Otherwise, I think he’s going to be pressing a more experienced runner and he’s going to have to prove he can win that way. I’m going to be watching him in this spot, but if his odds do float over 20-1, I’d consider throwing a few bucks his way.
7 – Secured Freedom (6-1 ML): Tim Yakteen had success with a Practical Joke colt (Practical Move) in 2023, as that one won both the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. That is worth noting because I’m not crazy about horses sired by Practical Joke when they stretch out to two turns. There are definite stamina influences on the dam side as she was sired by Uncle Mo out of an A.P. Indy mare. It’s also a little interesting seeing that Kazushi Kamura ends is sticking with him as opposed to going back to Plutarch, who I thought he rode very well when he was third by less than a length in the American Pharoah. You never really know what goes into those decisions and whether or not he actually had a choice, but it’s fair to at least wonder. His maiden score on this oval at the end of December was exceptional. Drawing the outside post, while Desert Gate is on the rail, is less than ideal for his first route race. However, he’s been working well in the morning and could be a horse that could be dangerous in this spot.
The verdict: 4-1-7
I’m willing to forgive the effort from Intrepido (#4) in the Breeders’ Cup. He didn’t break well from the rail, which put him in a possible position while facing some of the top horses of his generation. He beat the two Baffert runners by ¾ of a length in a race where a contingent of Baffert runners tried to keep him bottled up and uncomfortable for the better part of the race. He’s a tough colt that should be in a better spot today. If it comes down to a stretch duel between him and Desert Gate (#1), I like his chances better.
Desert Gate has the post and the pace edge in this race, which is very dangerous in Southern California. While he’s going to be a short price, he’s not one of the best horses in the barn, and from a long term perspective, I think Plutarch (#2) might even have the higher ceiling. However, he’s shown he’s comfortable breaking from the rail and I’d be very surprised to see him not on the early lead. I think Cherokee Nation (#3) could be able to run some interference to keep either Robusta (#6) or Secured Freedom (#7) from being able to apply too much pressure.
I like both Plutarch and Secured Freedom in this spot. I see Secured Freedom having the higher ceiling and Plutarch having the higher floor. At the mile distance I think Secured Freedom might have a better chance of winning. Plutarch is one that will need to be used underneath if you’re playing the verticals though.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
