PTF posting for @blinkersoff420
The Santa Anita Friday card kicks off three days of racing with sunshine. With a forecast looking more of the usual weather for Arcadia, California an 8-race card is on tap. Taking a shot at the early pick 5 today and below is my analysis. If you have any plays you want to share, or comments feel free to log in on Twitter and fire away! @blinkersoff420 & @inthemoneymedia!
Early Pick 5 at Santa Park
Race 1 Maiden Special Weight 61k – Turf – 6 Furlongs – 3 YO
#7 First Class Dad (4-1)
The bug jumps from the Sadler horse (it appears) to ride back on the Jeff Bonde trained colt. Two reason to use, the first is the switch to turf. Dialed In does not interest me as the sire, the dam, Belle Chaussee is 4/16 winner overall with progeny. Even though the 4 wins are at a routing distance on turf it still suggest to me this was in Bonde’s back pocket. Nothing with getting weight off either.
#8 Hudson Ridge (7-2)
Looking at the numbers of the sire American Pharoah you will see way below average for 3 YO ^ first time starters yet some hope on the turf with overall progeny. The dam side shows turf obviously from Ireland but a couple of wins by Shell House are nice to see, even at a routing distance. No need to explain the connections or suggest Baffert cannot win on turf, DRF formulator will tell you other wise if you look at his history. DVD has had a slow start to the meet, but he is still solid and if you look at the whole history of workouts numerous .47’s are there, not just one or 2.
#2 Coulthard (5-2)
Yes, Philip D’Amato is good with foreign shippers, add Umberto to the mix and appeal is there. I am not buying it because he has already at 5 cracks at the distance or close to it. The footing will be firm and maybe it leads to Coulthard running the best race of his life, at the short price though my mind is made up to pass on the top spot.
7-8-2
Race 2 Fillies – Maiden Special Weight 61k – Dirt – 1 Mile – 3 YO
#5 Quick and Dirty (8-1)
My crazy thought of the day comes from watching his last race out. Going a mile and looking completely under hold from Gonzalez. Finished early after hitting the stretch but since then a couple of works and looking at over tab history a few suggest maybe some speed is really there. Understandable if the blood line scares you off but with a five-horse field and others in here likely to take more coin Quick and Dirty is worth a shot at the given price.
#3 Lady Mystify (5-2)
Once Prat was able to get her in a flow down the stretch, she actually showed some nice kick. A couple of recent works where the time looks good on paper and Peter Eurton who seems to improve his horses as they run more.
#1 Frosteria (6-5)
A grade 2 speaks volumes but the short field of 5 and others possibly showing something to reach her Beyer level at better prices led to the 3rd spot.
5-3-1
Race 3 Md 50000 (50-45) – Turf – 6 Furlongs – 3 YO
#10 Special Mission (8-1)
This race was not an easier one for me to really have a solid opinion. Post Position 10 has only one win this meet out of 16 going 6F on the turf, not ideal but with the connections and not liking much else here worthy of a top spot in this particular race.
#4 Amanofmystature (5-2)
First time gelding had Prat back aboard and is dropping the shades. A few workouts since and a connection combo J/T @ 40% makes sense. 5-2 a bit short in win spot.
#1 Soulong (4-1)
Joining the Peter Miller trained #4 is a horse with a TimeFormUS Early Pace fig you do not see often, 1. Understandable looking at the run line which is actually leads to a nice closing effort. Adding Joel Rosario and a lack of interest in others leads to a 3rd spot for Soulong.
Race 4 State Bred – OC 20k / N1X – Dirt – 1 Mile – 4 ^
#6 Diamond Doss (3-1)
After watching the last race and a horrible break, followed by taking the long way around the track and what seemed to be an okay enough gallop out my pick is Diamond Doss. The quick turn and one workout to me suggest he has plenty in the tank. It will be interesting to see which move Cedillo makes out of the break because it may very well determine the race.
#3 Coalinga Road (2-1)
It seems like the gelding likes to sit off the pace, if the 4 and 7 go and set a little bit quicker fractions than his last race out a dub might be in play.
#7 Signofthecross (5-1)
Using in the third spot because of the win last out against open company and winner 3 times out of four at the distance. The 1:39 mile recorded previous race would win again, and the pilot reads the past performances.
6-3-7
Race 5 Fillies and Mares – Maiden Special Weight 61k – Turf – 1 Mile – 4 ^
#1 Wind and Hope (10-1)
Positive workout notes from the DRF Clocker team along with what hopefully is a pace duel between the #5, Eyes Open and #8, Phoenix Tears put the Simon Callaghan horse at the top spot. On the turf the one post position is hitting at 16 percent and even though a trip might need to be worked out my thinking is speed will be ahead out of the gate, follow it.
#6 Witch Moon (2-1)
A Canadian first-time starter in the USA for Phil D’Amato this go around. Malibu Moon has had 22,582 starters and 13,866 of them won at 4 YO and up. Crazy numbers but the math is 13% and even it is average it is enough for me to use in the 2nd spot.
#2 Lady Crocker (15-1)
A complete stretch and looking at Carla Gaines shippers from GG confirms this thought. Blinkers off, new surface, nice string of workouts, Mike Smith up and the dam, Foxysox won 5 times going a mile on the turf under same trainer.
1-6-2
