Santa Anita Early Pick Four Analysis

Mike Dennis is a horseplayer who enjoys doing bet sequence write-ups. You can find him on Twitte @blinkersoff420. Take it away, Mike!

Simply put, I have seen a lot of people win money over the years and a lot of people lose money over the years playing the greatest sport there is. Luckily for me the dollars do not matter because I have lived this crazy ass lifestyle of a gambler and it is embedded in my soul. When the highs are high you eat steak and when the lows are low it is tuna in a can. One thing a horse player can do though to help themselves out is sticking to what they are good at. For me, it is Santa Anita Park. Wondering why that is the track? Numbers do not lie and pulling your betting data can do wonders. My New Year’s Eve was not spent out chasing girls, not that I could have with local restrictions. It took me a while to dump all of my 2019 bets into an Excel sheet, but a much shorter time to figure out what I really suck at. SA is the highlight and I think playing this particular track will give me the edge I need. The sequence feels right, and the money will be tight with rubber bands around it.

Race 2 – State Bred – Maiden Special Weight 61k – Turf – One Mile – 4 ^

One tip in the past I found written on the bathroom wall at Santa Anita is to never trust maidens. Other tips included to look for any sort of change, a great work off a long layoff or any sort of pace advantage.

#7 – Tallemark

The Dam has shown success routing on turf and hope with 4-year-old horses and up. Yes, it is a stretch, but for a guy who does not trust maidens I am willing to include the 20-1 ML in my first leg of the pick 4.

#1 – Secret Club

It does not take Nate Newby to figure out Secret Club woke up last time racing on the turf. A few works back opened up the eyeballs and with an inside post we will see how things roll. The 5-2 is not ideal obviously but refer to top.

#6 – Fly Buddy Fly

Peter Miller is winning a solid at a solid number and the 4-year-old gelding has a nice workout pattern coming into the race. There is no reason to over analyze using Fly Buddy Fly.

#8 – Big Billy

Just hear me on this one, if you can go back and look at all of Big Billy’s workouts since March as a whole, #’s that look quick make you think this one has not shown full ability yet. A bomb, but if it comes in the pick 4 explodes like my Buckeyes title hopes did.

Use: 7-1-6-8

Race 3 – State Bred – OC 50k/N1X – Dirt – 6 Furlongs – 3 YO

Only three-year-old horses are invited to this party and they all of won before. With the race looking have a bit of speed

The attraction of Prat on Mister Bold (#3) did not draw me in to using the horse as a single. It was the race two back which looks like the three-year-old showed some closing ability. This race looks fast to me and Prat reads the form.

Use: #3 – Mister Bold (Single)

Race 4 – State Bred – Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Sprint 150k – 6 Furlongs – 4 ^

Once in a while instead of using eight horses you need to just tough it out and find two that really impress you. It is called handicapping and it is why I love this game.

#4 Homehome

This is called the Unsolved Mysteries angle, a show that scared me very much as a kid. If I can name to two people who have burned me with horses off of a decent layoff it is Doug O’Neill and his pal Mario Gutierrez. Plus, I am hoping Mario takes the 6-year-old mare right off the inside speed.

#7 Mo See Cal

Mentioned above is the visual I see in my head of the race playing out. Two horses, quicker than the other horses in the field. If another horse decides to spoil my visual, then this pick 5 goes down in flames. Unless ….

#9 Nardini

She can set off mid pack with a decent enough pace. I think she may get first run over the deep closers at the shorter race distance.  If the pace is really dancing upfront, she might succumb quickly too it, the fractions need to be exactly right for a win. If that point comes then its tuna time.

Use: 4-7-9

Race 5 – State Bred – Female – Md 50000 – 6 Furlongs – Dirt – 3 YO

Going into the last leg I am looking to score for millions. Using two horses here, I did not think this race came out super strong. Two horses are in play and I hope we all got rich or fired our bets off trying.

#1 Medusa’s Gaze

Looking at the sire Coil I see some sort of hope, with numbers slightly above winners overall at 3. Throw that in there with early speed inside and I will take a shot. Kristin Mulhall has started off just terrible at Santa Anita, said nobody ever (4/7 winner).

#7 Allergic to Logic

Not only does the three-year-old filly have a great name she may a great chance to win first out just based off of works and Smiling Tiger having decent numbers. Not thrilled by much others and call it lazy handicapping but take what is given at times.

#5 Complete Control

She is the looks the part and if runs the race will win at a short price. I have learned before to not let short-price favorites ruin a nice payout.

The way I follow may not be the path of others. I will press the bets, play a win bet on the single, then win bets in the other 3 races at ¼ the cost of my total win bet amounts. Feel free to tweet me @blinkersoff420 to talk all the smack you want or to share a horse you may like. Thanks for reading.

 

SA Race A B C  D
2 7 1 6 8
3 3      
4 4 7 9  
5 1 7 5  

 

Bonus material above, I will press the pick 4 tickets per the law of the land laid down by @tommyhammer. As well, punch a pick 5 ticket per the law of land laid down by @utbighair

 

 

 

 

 

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