Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Bowtie Boys (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 6-4-1
6-Improbable U is a logical choice for conditioner Jonathan Thomas, having finished second in three of four grass route tries. The sophomore daughter of Improbable adds blinkers and Lasix today, drops in for a first-time tag, and makes her second try off the bench. 4-Velvet Lilly (by Connect) showed good early zip before tiring to sixth in her Nov. 28 unveiling at 20-1, and the Sadler barn has solid stats overall with second-time turf starters. This filly also drops in for a tag today, removes the blinkers, and adds Lasix. 1-Photogenic flashed improved speed on the stretch-out in start number two for trainer Leonard Powell and now drops in for a first-time tag in the all-important third career try. This barn is 0-for-7 with MDSW to MDCLM turf dropdowns, however.
Race #2: Selections: 5-3-4
A voided claim when last seen back in March 2025, 5-Bowtie Boys has solid early foot in a pace-less affair for trainer Tim Yakteen and should clear this field relatively easily off the layoff with an alert break. The 5-year-old gelding has trained well in recent weeks, including a “best of 29” five-furlong bullet in :59.2 on Jan. 12. This top barn is 6 for 21 (29%) with a lofty $5.67 ROI with dirt runners at Santa Anita returning >180 days. 3-Smiling Tizzy has not hit the board in his last three tries, but goes two sprints to a route today, on the class drop, and projects to be positioned close to the lead. The Eurton-trained 4-Spun Not Stirred has run some of the quickest dirt route Beyers in this field, but needs some pace to run into, which he might not get this afternoon.
Race #3: Selections: 3-4-7
Second off the bench, 3-Miss Donna goes two sprints to a route today for trainer Michael McCarthy, dropping in for a first-time tag. This lucrative barn is a strong 7-for-19 (37%) with a $2.59 ROI over the past five years, including MDSW-to-MDCLM turf runners at SA. Lasix on. This filly should fall into a favorable stalking journey. 4-Springline has been well-beaten in his last pair against tougher but drops back into the maiden claiming ranks, adds Lasix, and can compete with this suspect group. Blinkers off 7-Angel Baby showed improved speed from a tough post on Dec. 28 before tiring badly late, and now drops back in for a tag with the addition of Lasix. She’ll likely try to bottom out this field, and improvement is likely to follow.
Race #4: Selections: 4-6-3
4-Liam Smith (by Midshipman) finished sixth and last in his Dec. 28 debut for Team O’Neill, but earned a respectable (70) main track Beyer in defeat, and can improve substantially with that race under his belt. This red-hot barn is 8 for 22 (36%) with a $3.55 ROI the past five years with MDSW to MDCLM droppers in dirt sprints. A beaten favorite in both career starts, 6-Sharons Beach ships in from Colonial Downs for trainer Jonathan Thomas, making career start number three, and has worked well locally since arriving in Southern California. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 12 for 31 (39%) overall the past two years, and this 3-year-old gelding looks to have ability while protected this afternoon. 3-Bay Cruiser is by multiple G2 winner Catalina Cruiser, who gets an ordinary 10% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. He debuts with Lasix, lures Hernandez, and the Sadler barn is certainly capable of winning on debut.
Race #5: Selections: 5-3-1
The Grade 1-winning 5-Speed Boat Beach has been plagued by layoff lines for Baffert, but his recent a.m. drills indicate he may be back in top form off the mini-freshening. He’s a Grade 3 winner on turf as well and figures to get an upfront-pressing trip in the first try over the downhill layout. He gets Lasix today, too. 3-St Anthony shortens back up to a sprint today and would likely be the beneficiary of a spirited duel on the frontend. This veteran gelding is winless since August 2024, however. The stakes-winning 1-Vlahos has only one grass start for Team O’Neill, but ran well enough over the surface to suggest he handles it fine, and this 5-year-old figures to be hustled along by Maldonado from the rail.
Race #6: Selections: 6-3-5
6-Cash in Toknight goes turf to dirt on the class drop for conditioner Doug O’Neill, and this barn has solid stats with MDSW to MDCLM dropdowns on this surface switch at SA the past five years—5 for-14 (36%) with a $3.57 ROI. 3-Shady Stripes was a beaten favorite at Los Al on Dec. 12 when dropped to this level for Bonde and now makes her second try off the bench today, adding Lasix. The 3-year-old daughter of Smiling Tiger has worked well over the Santa Anita main track since that last effort. Her stablemate, 5-Tammy Baby, makes her second start at today’s reduced $50k maiden claiming level, exiting an even fourth-place effort on Nov. 16. She adds Lasix this afternoon and deserves another chance posting the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (55).
Race #7: Selections: 7-6-1
The stakes-winning 7-My Love Caroline has won two straight for conditioner Jorge Periban and has been well-rested off her most recent dead heat victory in the CTBS S. at Del Mar back in August. The daughter of Stay Thirsty has seen her Beyers increase with each subsequent start, adds Lasix today, and figures to trip out nicely this afternoon from the outside draw. A winner of two of her last three starts, 6-My Kat returns to her preferred dirt surface today for George Papaprodromou and figures to be on or close to the lead this afternoon. She was a decisive winner over three of today’s returning rivals two back. 1-Tapatia Mia finished third behind the top choice in the aforementioned CTSB S. and returns off the four-month freshening with a steady but uninspiring worktab.
Race #8: Selections: 2-5-4
2-Captain Choochies returned off an extended layoff to score an impressive gate-to-wire win on Dec. 29 in a starter allowance with an (89) Beyer, and is dangerous for the potential repeat, utilizing similar tactics. The 6-year-old gelding is in for today’s $50k tag. The veteran 9-year-old gelding 5-Lammas (Ire) is a 13-time winner, drops a notch and shortens up to a mile off a sharp third-place finish (beaten only a neck) when last seen Oct. 11. The old timer continues to run hard since entering the Mullins barn. The Jonathan Thomas-trained 4-Geometry drops out of four consecutive stake events, including a pair of Grade 2’s, adds blinkers, and is in for a career-low $50k claiming tag. Improvement likely.
