Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Area Code (Race #2)
Race #1: 4-Aventapp makes 2nd start off the bench off good 2nd place effort behind next-out winner Bowl Of Cherries who came back to win again on February 11 with a (77) turf Beyer. This filly has worked well since that try and is the expected frontrunner today. 3-Dial Her attracts Prat for unveiling with Lasix and barn is a strong 4 for 5 (80%) with a lofty ROI of $8.04 with debut runners. The mare 2-Red Diamond is a 5-year-old Maiden which is always a concern, but she’s run par for this level on grass multiple times and has been freshened for this for trainer Ron McAnally.
Race #2: 2-Area Code is by multiple G1 winner Honor Code and goes turf to dirt in 2nd career start for trainer John Sadler. This barn is 4 for 12 (33%) with a $3.01 ROI with today’s surface switch at SA with 2nd time starters. 5-Magnificent Ride improved with switch to the main track in last with a speed and fade effort. The 3-year-old gelding makes the all-important 3rd career start today. 1-Heavens Music owns this short fields best last-out Beyer when just missing by a neck and is an obvious threat to break through Maiden ranks today in career start number 10.
Race #3: Recent Maiden winner 6-Increase Stakes is nicely drawn outside with speed and looms a BIG threat to repeat while facing winners for the first time. 5-Squared Shady returns from Golden Gate off back-to-back wins and this 4-year-old filly has run well over this strip in the past. 1-Youte finished ahead of the top choice when facing off on January 28 and appears to be improving with racing experience.
Race #4: 5-Bicameral moves back west after two subpar tries at Oaklawn. The 3-year-old filly stretches back out this afternoon and shows a much-improved 4-furlong bullet drill since her last try. She could very well find herself alone on the lead if aggressively sent by Bravo. Upset chance. 2-Micro Share both main track Beyer speed figures lay over this field for trainer Richard Mandella and this top barn is 8 for 30 (27%) with a $3.42 ROI with horses returning off 61-180 Days in Maiden Special Weight events. Logical betting choice. A $750,000 purchase by top sire Into Mischief 3-Brocade has been somewhat of a disappointment in both local starts but stretches out this afternoon for Baffert making her 2nd start off the bench. Improvement expected.
Race #5: Class dropping 2-Dream Robber adds blinkers today and makes 2nd start off the claim for trainer Steven Miyadi. The 4-year-old broke Maiden at today’s 5 ½ furlong trip and looks like the controlling speed drawn inside. 4-Sometimes Always drops in class and owns the field’s best last-out Beyer (71). 7-Kimmer game maiden win in last when rallying up along the inside and switches to meet’s leading rider who has had good success for this barn.
Race #6: 5-Excelerina was a powerful Maiden winner going this trip on the grass despite a ton of traffic trouble and retains Prat this afternoon making 1st start against winners. This 4-year-old filly from the Phil D’Amato barn should only move forward off of her sharp try in U.S. unveiling. The other D’Amato runner 7-Annaghlasa just missed as the beaten chalk making her 1st start against winners and is the expected pacesetter again today. The 4-year-old filly makes her 3rd start off the bench and could be a handful to run down if allowed to settle along with modest fractions. East coast invader 3-Split Then Double was not disgraced in return effort when not having the cleanest of trips and fits extremely well with these with any normal 2nd out improvement.
Race #7: The veteran 7-year-old gelding 1-I’m Corfu could not parlay an ideal trip in Southern California debut into the winner’s circle when hanging late in deep stretch. He makes his 3rd start off the layoff today, however, and drops in class with very competitive speed figures. 5-Fury Cap moves up in class today after sharp victory off the extended layoff and two drills since then indicate he remains in good form and a form regression is unlikely. 2-Mister Bold has shown little in last two tries at Golden Gate but gets significant class relief today.
Race #8: 1-Comradery should enjoy stretching back out and today’s trip is where he’s had most success. The lightly raced 5-year-old comes out of a tough sprint that’s produced two next-out winners including G3 winner Barraza. A projected ground-saving journey should set him up well for the stretch drive. Upset chance. 10-Anaconda recent winner off extended freshening owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (90) but must now negotiate an outside draw. Having said that, the 5-year-old has enough tactical early zip to get good position. French import 3-Cash Equity adds Lasix; has been freshened and makes first U.S start for barn that traditionally excels with these invaders. This lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 7 for 16 (44%) with a $3.06 ROI with these types.