Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Stage Run (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 3-4-5
3-Sketchy is the tepid choice in the Friday afternoon opener, having faced considerably better N3L starter allowance foes in her last several tries. The 5-year-old gelding is 2-for-21, but has the right grinding running style to perhaps get up late from a stalking position. 4-Geometry drops from $50k claimers to today’s $30,000 level for trainer Jonathan Thomas, exiting an even third in a five-horse field. 5-Gem Mint Tea finished an up-close fifth (beaten less than three lengths) in an OK effort Jan. 10 and should find himself closer to the front today, stretching out an additional eighth of a mile.
Race #2: Selections: 2-6-7
2-Stage Run finished up well to round out the superfecta despite a slow break on debut Jan. 15 when facing $50k maiden claimers, and now drops to today’s reduced $12,500 level for start number two. Trainer Craig Lewis is 3-for-10 (30%) the past five years with sprint-to-route second-time starters. 6-Irish Element makes career try number twelve this afternoon but drops back down to face maiden company after trying his hand against winners on Feb. 21 for Team O’Neill. The 4-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (64). It’s never easy routing on debut at this level, but 7-Silversmith lands in a weak field for McCarthy off a decent work tab and does not need to be much to compete against this suspect group.
Race #3: Selections: 2-5-1
2-Spun Not Stirred removes the blinkers and moves back to the main track after a subpar effort against better off the Feb. 13 claim and just missed at this level two-back. A runner-up in the last, 5-Smiling Tizzy drops to a career-low claiming tag today, second off the Jose Valdez purchase, and this gelding sports the field’s bets last-out dirt Beyer (72). 1-White Mountain is likely to be sent away from the fence this afternoon and could find himself on a clear lead, making his third start of the form cycle.
Race #4: Selections: 4-3-8
4-Olivia finished a solid second when dropped to this level over a pair of today’s rival fillies on Feb. 6, when returning off a five-month freshening. The daughter of War of Will should prove tough, second off the bench, and second-time Lasix this afternoon for trainer Ryan Hanson. 3-Sugar Reign was third behind the top choice in last and now adds blinkers for trainer Jeff Bonde, making the all-important third career try. 8-Cosmo Friday has not been out in nearly six months for trainer Doug O’Neill, but drops in for a first-time tag, removes the blinkers, and adds Lasix off the freshening. The Hard Spun filly gets a favorable outside draw,
Race #5: Selections: 3-5-4
3-Willow in the Wind was a much-improved third (beaten less than a length) behind She’s Back in last, breaking a step slow and then running gamely on the fence. The daughter of G1 winner Graydar should appreciate the stretch-out to a mile and deserves another chance to make amends at today’s reduced level. 5-Golly Golly Dolly moves back to the main track on the class drop for Team O’Neill, and her lone dirt debut try on debut at Los Al was better than it looks on paper, when breaking slowly and finishing up across the wire fourth. The sophomore filly could easily bounce back this afternoon at this softer level. 4-She’s Back exits back-to-back seconds at this level for her low-profile connections and did so from a far outside post in last. She is a logical fit right back, with a similar effort.
Race #6: Selections: 2-7-1
2-Shangrilama (Ire) has only been off the board once since arriving Stateside and edged clear to a solid turf sprint win on Feb. 14 when offered for a $32k tag. The 6-year-old mare now drops in for $25,000 this afternoon for trainer Mark Glatt and looks primed for the potential repeat. 7-Candy Bar finished a wide fourth at 47-1 when shortening up to try the downhill layout against better on Feb. 15 when in for the $50k tag off the claim. She drops back down to the $25k purchase price this afternoon for conditioner Isidro Tamayo, where she was a good runner-up two back, and this barn is a strong 6-for-16 (38%) with a $2.80 ROI with second off the claim grass runners. 1-Headed for Om returns off an eight-month layoff for conditioner John Sadler, but lures Hernandez off the bench and faced considerably better most of her 2025 season.
Race #7: Selections: 4-5-2
4-Ryan’s Girl is exiting a career-best Beyer (82) when finishing second on Feb. 28, going 5 ½ furlongs, but has proven to be equally effective at a mile, evidenced by her 3-2-1 career mark at the distance. 5-Stay in Line flashed speed and tired to second on the stretch-out when finishing in front of a pair of today’s returning rivals, and now goes second off the Andy Mathis claim. This barn is a strong 7-for-15 (47%) with a $2.63 ROI over the past five years with this claiming angle on dirt. 2-Dorie Miller was a beaten favorite third behind Stay in Line in last and now makes her third try of the form cycle. The 5-year-old mare is only 2 for 33 lifetime and is still looking for her first win at Santa Anita (0 for 10).
Race #8: Selections: 1-9-5-10
A field of 10 closely matched colts and geldings line up for this $10k claiming sprint, which looks like a spread race for those participating in multi-race exotics. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 1-Man Child drops in for a career-low $10k claiming tag, while making the third start of the form cycle. The 5-time winning 6-year-old gelding will need to work out a trip from the tricky rail draw again. 9-The Big Cheeseola has traded punches with several of these over the last several starts and opened a clear lead before getting run down by Windribbon in his most recent try as the 4-5 favorite. The 10-year-old veteran gelding, 5-Windribbon, has won two straight and is 11-for-56 overall in his hard-hitting, established career. He has shown no signs of slowing down. 10-Broadway Unions shortens back up to a sprint today after a solid one-mile score on Feb. 8 and has run three consecutive (72) dirt Beyers.
Race #9: Selections: 7-1-8
7-Flash of Lightning rallied for third despite a troubled journey when returning off a three-month mini-freshening for conditioner Richard Baltas on the stretch-out, and is likely to improve off that encouraging effort, second off the bench. The sophomore colt goes second time with Lasix today. 1-Dr. Filkins finished a much-improved second when stretched out in distance on Feb. 13 over four of today’s returning rivals and figures to be forwardly placed once again with today’s rail draw again. The D’Amato-trained 8-Robin Olds ran up on the heels of a rival early on, trailed down the backstretch, and then made a belated run for the show spot (and a solid gallop-out) for a barn that rarely wins at first asking. The sophomore son of Grade 1 winner Mo Forza is likely to move forward off that solid unveiling.
