Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Shady Gem (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 3-6-2
3-Fancy Lady ran exceptionally well on debut for conditioner Michael McCarthy to grab the runner-up spot despite a troubled journey. The 3-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo was bumped at the gate, forced to take up, and then rallied extremely wide late to come up just a head short. Three horses have returned to win from that Feb. 1 “key” race, and this jockey-trainer combo is 4-for-14 (29%) with second-time turf starters. 6-Ou La La (by multiple Group 1 winner Blue Point), debuts for trainer Richard Mandella off a sharp and steady work tab and picks up the red-hot Jaramillo. Her sire clicks at an impressive (26%) with 3-year-old & up debut runners. 2-Rethink has seen her Beyers improve with each subsequent start for D’Amato, and this Vekoma 4-year-old makes her second try off the bench today. Two solid synthetic drills since that last try add to the appeal.
Race #2: Selections: 7-8-3
7-Shady Gem flashed good early speed while wide in his Feb. 7 well-backed debut and now drops in for a tag in career try number two as a first-time gelding. The heat he exits has proven quite productive, producing next-out winners Tommy Norris, Parnelli Jones, and the Galloping Ghost. 8-Hungover finished a good second at this $50k maiden claiming level on debut (beaten only a ½-length) and is dangerous with any normal second-out progression switching to leading pilot, Juan Hernandez. 3-My Man Joe Roldan was an even fourth on debut, March 6, and now drops in for a tag with the addition of Lasix in start number two. Improvement is likely.
Race #3: Selections: 6-5-2
Two sprints to a route 6-Call Me Cory looks like today’s clear pacesetter on the stretch-out and return to turf today for trainer Ryan Hanson. The 4-year-old Uncle Mo colt has run well in both local tries, including a sharp second on dirt with a (87) Beyer in his most recent try on Feb. 15. A recent five-furlong bullet drill on March 9 in :59.4 indicates he remains on edge, and could be ready for a career-best effort. 5-Let’s Be Frank hasn’t been out in 4 ½ months but is Grade 2-placed for McCarthy, and has trained steadily since finishing a well-beaten and overmatched 11th in the BC Juvenile Turf (G1) last Halloween. 2-Sabino Canyon (by multiple Grade 1 winner Maxfield) is a $575k Keeneland purchase. The sophomore colt has been training lights-out over the dirt for Team Baffert, but the barn is a chilly 1-for-27 with turf debut runners the past five years.
Race #4: Selections: 7-2-6
Class dropping 7-Smoovin Saturday is a stakes winner for trainer Michael McCarthy and now returns to dirt for today’s $50k tag after being outrun in the Pasadena S. on Feb. 22. The huge class plunge is an obvious concern, but the colt figures to get a flattering pace to close into. Lasix on. Recent maiden turf winner 2-Scatalotingdong moves back to the main track to face winners this afternoon for conditioner Leonard Powell, and has run well enough over dirt to be considered a win threat today. Jaramillo, who was in a dead heat with Hernandez for leading rider through last weekend, retains the mount. 6-Fionello rallied for a sharp second despite a tardy break (when facing a pair of today’s returning rivals) when dropping to this reduced level on March 6. The 3-year-old gelding stretches back out to a mile today.
Race #5: Selections: 8-5-7
8-Confidentiality (by G1 winner Complexity) is nicely drawn outside for her unveiling and has trained sharply for Glatt. This shrewd barn is 18-for-90 (20%) with a lofty $3.10 ROI with dirt sprint debut runners the last five years. Her “best of 42” five-furlong bullet in a blistering :58 flat on March 2 certainly catches the eye. The Baffert-trained 5-Weekend Princess is by hot sire Vekoma (16% with debuting 3-year-olds) and arrives on the scene with the barn’s typical flashy worktab. The $625k Keeneland purchase debuts with Florent Geroux in the saddle, who is 3-for-5 (60%) and 5-for-5 ITM when teamed up with the barn’s firsters the past four years. Her stablemate, 7-Sounds Lucky, has been somewhat of a disappointment in four career tries, with her best finish being a third on debut at Del Mar last September. The daughter of Tiz the Law has trained smartly in recent weeks, however, and is a solid bounce-back candidate with Hernandez retaining the mount.
Race #6: Selections: 4-3-7
4-Harcyn threw in a clunker on Feb. 21 when breaking from a tough outside post when facing several of these, but moves inside this afternoon while making his third start of the form cycle. A solid second two-back and a winner three-back, sprinting on grass, makes the 5-time winning gelding a good bounce-back candidate. The 8-year-old gelding 3-Mubtadaa hasn’t been out in 457 days for conditioner Vladimir Cerin, but has proven he can fire off long layoffs in the past. He loves this grass course, evidenced by his 7-3-2-1 career mark, but his age and the long break are a lot to overcome this afternoon. 7-Hacking It Up flashed speed and tired to sixth at 38-1 on Feb. 21 and now drops from $32k claimers to today’s $25,000 level for trainer George Papaprodromou, second off the bench. The shortening up to six panels may help him last for at least a piece of this today for the top barn.
Race #7: Selections: 7-3-6
7-Uncle Chilly was an odds-on short-priced winner in his most recent try for Mullins on Feb. 6 off the claim and looks primed for the repeat. 3-Special Club finished an even third versus similar on Feb. 20 and is usually in the hunt for conditioner Craig Lewis. Hernandez sticks. The multiple stakes-winning 6-Wild Jewels has been sidelined for two years but returns for a new barn at a reduced $20k claiming level off a steady worktab. Jaguar Jon and Tiger in My Tank ran 1-2 on Feb. 15 with an 82 & 80 Beyer, respectively, and figure to be battling for the early lead again this afternoon.
Race #8: Selections: 9-2-6-3
Several of these fillies exit the same Feb. 21 $12,500 maiden claiming dirt sprint. 9-Bitter Truth just missed the show spot in a decent unveiling for conditioner Craig Lewis when attracting solid tote support. The 4-year-old filly by Clubhouse Ride moves from the inside to today’s outside draw and should prove tough with any normal second-out progression. 2-Play for Me showed improved speed in career try number two for Knapp, exiting back-to-back thirds at this level, and now makes the all-important third start this afternoon. She figures to get another upfront pressing trip. 6-Celestial Skies has been facing slightly better in recent tries and has hit the board in four of seven career efforts for the low-profile barn. The daughter of Om has run some of the swiftest dirt Beyers in this weak field and shortens back up to a sprint today. 3-Daddygaveittome makes career start number 16 today but finished second at this level when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals on the aforementioned Feb. 21 event.
