Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Decapo (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 6-4-3
6-Decapo moves from the downhill layout to the regular grass course this afternoon for Sadler after finishing an even fifth (beaten less than three lengths) on Feb. 21. The 4-year-old colt by Mendelssohn sports the field’s best last out turf Beyer (83) and figures to be on or close to the lead today. He fired a pair of bullet synthetic drills since that last try, and should prove tough to reel in late. The Brian Koriner-trained 4-I’m Otter Here rallied for the place spot at 18-1 off nearly a year’s layoff and figures to move forward off that encouraging try. The Munnings gelding continues to train well. 3-Legitimate returns from a three-month freshening as a first-time gelding for McCarthy and picks up the hot hand of jockey Emisael Jaramillo.
Race #2: Selections: 1-5-4
1-Ya’ll Come finished behind both Bluegrass Go Go and Cupids Crusader in his most recent try, but now goes first off the Mullins claim. This top barn is an impressive 7-for-12 (58%) with a $2.70 ROI the past five years, with newly acquired sprint dirt purchases at Santa Anita the past five years. The speedy 5-Bluegrass Go Go usually prefers to finish underneath, as evidenced by his 26-2-6-1 career mark, but looks like the commanding speed today exiting a sharp runner-up finish at this level on Feb. 28. 4-No More Ding Dongs steps up in class from N2L to N3L this afternoon after a game, gate-to-wire win on March 8. The 5-year-old gelding gets in light again this afternoon and followed up that last score with a three-furlong blowout work on March 20.
Race #3: Selections: 2-3-5
None of the five fillies and mares entered here has won at today’s 1 1/8-mile trip. The late-running 2-Quantum Innergy rallied from far back to grab the place spot on Feb. 27 and will now have an additional eighth of a mile to work with. The 5-year-old mare holds a double Beyer turf advantage over the rest of the field, but will need some pace to run at, of which I am not entirely sure she will get this afternoon. 3-Going Deep has speed and takes a sizable class drop today from $50k claimers to today’s $20,000 level. The 4-year-old daughter of Bodexpress will likely try to take these on a gate-to-wire mission with Maldonado and is eligible to improve today, off a pair of subpar tries. 5-She’s a Joker makes her third start of the form cycle today for Miller and is reunited with Fresu, who has ridden well when teamed up with this 7-year-old mare.
Race #4: Selections: 4-5-6
A $58,869 Pick Six Carryover begins here in race four. 4-Honorable Gal brings his Los Al speed back to Santa Anita, and despite the mare’s 0-for-4 record over the local course, she’s run well against this level and better in the past and figures to attempt to bottom out this field as today’s likely pacesetter. The caveat is the seven-month layoff, but this barn is 8-for-32 (25%) over the past five years with dirt sprint returnees of >180 days. 5-Respect the Crown steps up in class off the under the lights, Los Al win and claim on Feb. 15, and this barn has solid stats with newly acquired purchases, including a 2-for-5 (40%) clip at Santa Anita from a small sample. 6-Cee’s the Image finished fourth and last two weeks ago when flashing brief speed, but should appreciate the outside draw today. The mare’s last (60) dirt Beyer is just as good as anyone in here.
Race #5: Selections: 3-4-1
3-Gallatin doesn’t have a ton of grass pedigree to speak of, but the Authentic colt adds blinkers this afternoon for trainer Jonathan Thomas on the stretch-out and surface change. This barn is a strong 19-for-45 (42%) overall with MDSW to MDCLM class droppers the past five years, and he is a legitimate gate-to-wire threat with Kimura jumping on board. 4-Prime Artist (Fr) finished an improved third with the class drop to this level on Feb. 27 for Powell, earning the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (65). The French-bred import makes his third try of the form cycle this afternoon and retains Ayuso. 1-Saharian (the gelded son of Blame) has yet to hit the board in three career turf tries but drops in for a first-time tag today off the two-month freshening and picks up Jaramillo, who is 3-for-3 (100%) on grass riding for this top barn this year.
Race #6: Selections: 2-6-4
A likely single for many Pick Six tickets, the speedy 2-Sendit Mo packed it in late in his most recent try (when beaten by double digits) but adds blinkers on the class drop for Mullins, shortening up to 5 ½ furlongs, and should prove tough to reel in late. The gelding’s two efforts prior to his last resulted in a gate-to-wire win last November and a near-miss second on Jan. 9. Recent maiden winner 6-Joker Went Wild goes first off the claim for Team O’Neill, who has above-average stats with new barn acquisitions. The sophomore colt by Practical Joke teams up with the meet’s leading pilot, Jaramillo. 4-Desert Kat was not all that competitive when stepping up in class to face winners when behind Sendit Mo in the aforementioned Jan. 9 event, but takes a sizable class drop today for a sharp barn.
Race #7: Selections: 2-4-3
2-Still Unwritten was a sharp gate-to-wire 2 ¾-length turf maiden sprint winner when last seen back on Jan. 17, with a competitive (66) Beyer. The 3-year-old filly by Cat Burglar has trained steadily since then and looks well-placed off the mini-freshening. The lightly raced 4-Troisieme Etoile has run well in both career tries for the leading barn and exits a game maiden turf sprint win on Feb. 14. The 3-year-old daughter of I’ll Have Another looks well-placed for her first crack against winners, with plenty of upside. 3-Eighties drops out of a pair of stakes events into this softer spot today for conditioner Antonio Garcia and should appreciate the turnback in distance.
Race #8: Selections: 5-7-6
5-Meridian Mae scampered away to an impressive 6 ¼-length maiden main track romp on the class drop Feb. 21, with a field’s best (63) Beyer. The daughter of Stanford looms a likely repeater for the Puype barn despite facing winners this afternoon. Kimura sticks. Trainer Doug O’Neill sends out a pair. 7-Stardialed is an interesting newcomer, who arrives in Southern California off an 8 ½-length maiden score at Mahoning Valley on Feb. 12. The (60) Beyer she earned that afternoon appears to match up well against this group, and she worked a decent five furlongs over the local strip. Her stablemate 6-Memetic has finished an even fifth and sixth in both tries at this level since breaking her maiden over this course three back. She switches to the meet’s leading rider today, stretching out an additional furlong.
Race #9: Selections: 8-6-4
The ultra-consistent 8-Certitude (Fr) holds a solid lifetime turf and career record of 18-4-8-1 for trainer John Sadler, and exits a sharp beaten odds-on second on Feb. 6 over the downhill course. The 5-year-old mare moves back to the straight course today, second off the bench, and figures to sit a perfect stalk-and-pounce trip with the outside draw. The Leonard Powell-trained 6-Imaboutago was overmatched in the Wishing Well S. in her most recent try on Feb. 21, but drops back down to her winning level from two-back today, where she defeated three of today’s returning rivals over the downhill course. She’s reunited with winning pilot Mirco Demuro today. Dirt to turf 4-Irina’s Charm drops out of the G2 Lukas, making her third start of the form cycle, and despite being unplaced in both grass tries in Kentucky, she’s reunited with Kimura today, who guided her to a 13-1 upset win two back. The 5-year-old mare has plenty of turf pedigree on both sides of her pedigree.
