Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Single Track Mind (Ire) (Race 1)
Race #1: 5-Single Track Mind (Ire) has run several solid races against straight MDSW types and now drops in for a first-time tag today. The April 22 race he exits from has produced several runners that have returned to run well including next-out winner Bold Supremacy. This colt should mow this inferior group down late. 6-Admiral Halsey was a beaten favorite in the last pair but deserves another chance making his second start against Maiden Claimers. 4-Belmont Bill makes career start number 9 today and has tailed off in last pair but merits some respect on the turnback and switch to Hernandez. This 5-year-old gelding ran some competitive turf Beyer numbers for this level earlier in the year.
Race #2: 4-It’s Saul Good is by multiple G1 winner Stay Thirsty and has trained solidly for today’s unveiling for conditioner Jeff Bonde. This barn has won with its last two filly first time starts – Crazy Hot (5/20) and Fly a Fantasy (4/29). 6-Stay Quiet attracted some tote support on May 20 unveiling when finishing a non-threatening 5th but returned with a bullet drill on June 2. Improvement likely. 5-Keepyourpranceon had little chance on the Keeneland grass in debut when rank and steadied while breaking from the rail. This filly heads west for her first start on the main track and barn has good overall numbers with their second time starters.
Race #3: The speedy 3-Took Charge steps up off sharp gate-to-wire score and lands in a sprint that appears (at least on paper) to be void of any serious early pace. This gelding defeated veteran 9-year-old next-out winner Hembree who came back to score with an (89) Beyer on June 3. 2-Natural Power (Ire) has run two strong grass races since arriving over from Turf Paradise including the field’s best last out grass Beyer (91) with narrow game victory on May 13. This 6-year-old gelding moves further inside and projects to carve out another favorable trip. 1-Exultation hasn’t started in over a year for trainer Peter Eurton but has trained well for today’s return effort and has had good success sprinting on this turf course. Hernandez sees fit to ride.
Race #4: 1-Riverside co-tops the field’s best last out Beyer (85) when just missing the place spot on May 19 when making first start for a tag. This son of Bernardini has come back to drill a sharp 5-furlongs on June 4 for Sadler and looks primed to break through today in career start number nine. 6-Looks Rare finished in front of Riverside in the after mentioned May 19 event and makes his 3rd start off the bench today for Team O’Neill. A logical fit again. His stablemate 3-Mucino finished a disappointing sixth when dropped in for a tag and last seen back in April. He returns protected today and picks up Hernandez. There may be more in the tank than initially catches the eye.
Race #5: The 6 for 18 5-Vandalia has never tried dirt but will do so this afternoon after recent Steve Knapp claim. This barn clicks close to 30% with recent acquisitions when Pereira is aboard, and this filly’s breeding suggests she’ll take to dirt. Her sire G1 winner Vancouver (Aus) gets 17% with his dirt route runners. 4-Flatterwithjewels has never strung two wins together in 23 starts but comes in off sharp mile win against similar earning above Beyer par for this class level. 7-Lucy L was runner-up in most recent effort on April 30 going this mile trip and a winner two-back facing N2L $12,500 claimers. This filly comes in with an improving Beyer pattern and gets in light again.
Race #6: 8-Pushiness is by Kantharos who gets 14% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. This filly draws the outside with a flashy worktab and attracts Hernandez for today’s unveiling. Trainer Michael McCarthy had two debut winners in May. 3-Borntostaythirsty saw her Beyer increase 30 points in second career start for trainer Steve Knapp with runner-up finish on May 20 and another move forward today makes her a solid contender. Her stablemate is 5-High Flying Gracie who rallied for 3rd in her debut on the same afternoon as Born and is eligible to build off that decent debut effort.
Race #7: 5-Irish Patsy was a troubled trip 2nd in same race as second and third choice and figures competitive again with Hernandez staying aboard. She owns the field’s best last out grass Beyer (73) and was stuck in traffic during the late stages of that stretch drive before finding room along the rail and galloping out past the race winner. 6-Miss Lizzy broke poorly from the rail in most recent start when facing a trio of the same runners here and got going too late settling for fourth. This filly moves outside today and projects to get a better trip. 1-Aventapp is 1 for 14 and was a beaten favorite 3rd in last at this level coming up less than length short. This mare is usually close but does have some hang in her. Therefore she’s difficult to endorse on the win end with much confidence.
Race #8: The Friday nightcap is a challenging bottom level $20k Maiden Claiming dirt route for 3-year-old & up colt and geldings. A good spot to try a price play. 2-Danz Till Ten makes the all-important 3rd career start this afternoon with an improving Beyer pattern and should trip out well tucked in behind the outside speed. 7-Port Royal goes turf to dirt on the class drop for the Desormeaux brothers making 3rd start of the form cycle. This 4-year-old colt’s main track efforts back in Kentucky weren’t awful. 3-Stella Boy goes two sprints a route today and drops again from $50k to bottom level $20,000 claimers.