Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Cosmo (Race #5)
Race #1: The holiday Columbus Day 10-race card starts off with a competitive Maiden Special Weight turf sprint for juvenile fillies. 10-Fun Money is unproven on grass but moves back down to face straight Maiden Special Weight types after finishing 3rd in the Generous Portion Stakes. He didn’t have the best of trips in two runner-up finishes two and three-back. 3-Diamonds Danzing adds blinkers and comes in from Albuquerque off close 4th place finish in $50k stake event on September 18. The juvenile filly has trained well locally in Southern California. 9-Cholly is by Mo Town who was a G1 route turf winner so perhaps today’s switch to grass will help this juvenile filly who has already shown some decent ability sprinting over the main track.
Race #2: 4-Flat Out Joy stretches out going 2nd off the claim for conditioner Charles Treece who is 3 for 12 (25%) with a $3.22 ROI with this claiming maneuver. The 6-year-old mare is projected to be on the lead in here this afternoon and is a strong wire-to-wire threat. Second off the claim 3-Brittle and Yoo comes off an even 3rd place finish at Los Al against better where he just fell short of Beyer par for this class level. 6-Mercy Mercy moves up off sharp win and claim for trainer Steve Knapp who has a pair of 6-year-old mares entered here. This barn is 10 for 34 (29%) with a $3.51 ROI with newly acquired purchases on SA dirt.
Race #3: 7-Maeve of Connaught (Ire) has been hampered by back-to-back slow starts in last pair but shows and improving Beyer pattern and switches to Rispoli who clicks close to 30% when riding for this outfit. 2-Leisurewear (Ire) is 0 for 11 for D’Amato but has 7 combined second and third place finishes routing on turf at this class level. The 4-year-old filly is usually forwardly placed. 3-Vivando exits the same last 3 races as Leisurewear where the pair have finished extremely close to each other and are therefore hard to separate.
Race #4: 8-Lookin for Revenge has been a popular commodity at the claiming box this spring and summer and moves up second off the claim today for Knapp. The 5-year-old gelding is the likely pacesetter in here and is a multiple winner going this mile trip. 5-Of Good Report has strung back-to-back wins together only once in 42 career starts but must be respected off sharp Los Al win against cheaper where he earned the field’s best last out main track Beyer (80). 3-Colonel Bowman has shown little in last 3 starts but takes a substantial class drop today and makes second start off the mini-freshening.
Race #5: In a race that’s projected to be run fast early on according to TimeformUS, things should set-up nicely for 8-Cosmo who owns the field’s best late pace figure (107). The gelding goes route to sprint and drops in class today today for trainer Mike Puype and has had good success going 6 panels at SA. First off the claim 6-See Through It is the one to beat off recent DMR victory where he earned a (90) Beyer going 5 furlongs. Team O’Neill is 10 for 44 (23%) with FOC runners at Santa Anita on grass. 9-Grit and Curiosity gets in light; should be much tighter making second start since February and is another who should benefit from a swift pace.
Race #6: 4-Practical Move goes two sprints to a route and should show more early zip this afternoon for trainer Tim Yakteen. The 2-year-old colt by Practical Joke has faced a pair of sharp Baffert juveniles in both career starts including finishing second to multiple G1 winner Cave Rock. Speaking of Baffert second time starter 9-Fort Bragg looks best of his pair in here. The Tapit colt chased undefeated stakes winning stable mate Speed Boat Beach in debut and should appreciate today’s stretch-out. 2-Riverside was no match for runaway winner Carmel Road in last but makes the all-important 3rd career start today for Sadler; is on the improve; and drilled a bullet 4 furlongs in preparation for this.
Race #7: 5-Mischievous Path has been sidelined since February, but this barn has done extremely well the past year with returnees off extended layoffs at Santa Anita going 4 for 9 (44%) with a $3.53 ROI. Bravo Ace gets the assignment and is 6 for 13 (46%) riding turf sprint starters for this outfit. Upset chance if race falls apart. The speedy 6-Moose Mitchell goes turf to dirt seeking third straight and is a re-claim for the George Papaprodromou barn. 3-Square Cat owns the field’s best last out turf Beyer (79) and his versatile running style serves him well over the downhill course.
Race #8: 5-So It Would Seem adds blinkers off solid runner-up finish at DMR at this level and now goes first off the claim for Papaprodromou barn. This lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 2 for 2 with newly acquired purchases despite barn’s 0 for 22 skid as of this writing. 4-Warren’s Queen Bee showed little in last pair at DMR but returns to track where she’s done some of her best running including breaking Maiden three-back. 2-Chao Mar should improve making second start off the 9-month freshening and if the expected lively race flow comes to fruition the 4-year-old filly should be rallying late.
Race #9: The lightly raced and talented 6-Thorne House has won two of three for trainer Dean Pederson and looks tough to overhaul in here if she takes to the downhill course. 5-Extra Speed Limit goes route to sprint this afternoon making second turf start and has trained well since last weakening 7th place finish. A strong stretch threat on the cutback with Rispoli. 1-Lil Nas draws the rail which is a tricky post to maneuver on the downhill course, but the colt goes two routes to a sprint for Sadler and should also be making up ground late.
Race #10: Perhaps there’s enough speed drawn outside to help set-up the strong late kick of 5-Valiancer who ran well to rally for the show spot despite post 14 in the G3 DMR Juvenile Turf and now drops back down to face straight Maiden Special Weights. 10-Reincarnate must overcome another outside draw but showed good speed on debut try for Baffert from post 9 only to fall a neck short earning the field’s best last out turf Beyer (70). The colt shows two sharp drills since that encouraging effort. 2-Game Time showed excellent progression when moved to grass on the stretch-out and should be set for best making 3td career start for Sadler.