Looking back at the glorious life I have had as a gambler one particular moment pops up in this crazy brain of mine. Movie night, when I was 18 years old right out of high school my apartment was a hot spot. Each night friends would come over, even girls at times and we would play cards, get drunk and watch movies. The best part is we would watch the same damn movie each night, Rounders. At the time, the poker boom was huge, and my life had been determined. Maybe not to be a lifetime poker player but to be a lifetime gambler (not saying poker is all about gambling, calm down). The gambling approach has led to no consistent success at betting the horses since I started playing more five years ago. There have been a couple of decent scores but overall, the numbers speak, and I am knee deep in red. My 2021 resolution is to no longer be a gambler when playing the greatest sport on earth. It is to be an investor, looking at value of opinions and to max out those opinions the best I can, so return can buy me a mansion. Doing so requires having a betting plan heading into a card. Today I share mine for the early pick 4 at Santa Anita Park.
My strategy: Win tickets each race on the highest odds at post with my selections. Pressed pick 4 tickets to “A” horses.
Race 2 – Md 30000 – 6 ½ Furlongs – Dirt – 3 YO#1, Cashlings is the morning line favorite at 6/5. In the past these types would be a no brain single for me, followed by them not showing up. With that being said the Peter Miller trained horse will be my “A” but others will be used. My question is there another in here which can get to the speed # put up already by Cashlings.#7, Mr. Tripledouble is 12-1 and a horse that caught my eye. Change can be good and the move to a sprint race on the dirt might work out. On the dam side, Gorgeous Goomah has shown success with 3 YO horses sprinting, 30%. Another positive is the recent workout from the DRF Clocker team (which I will refer to again in this article) and trainer Neil French has won before with this angle, 5/24 over the last five years.#5, Lance the Legend in the win spot is not one I will be betting. According to the DRF Clocker Note he was able to hold off Cosmic Cowgirl in a recent work, who is a 0/6 filly. The key words are hold off, to me that means barely able. He will be the “C” horse in my pick 4 with the bug Pyfer up on the mount. 1-7-5
Race 3 – Clm 12500 (12.5-10.5) – 7 Furlongs – Dirt – 4^
11 are entered for the third race of the day at the great race place. It can be overwhelming, or assumptions can be made to be spread happy in a bigger field. From experience and advice from more successful players these are the races to single in a sequence. The majority of the horses in the field are here because there is nowhere else to go, they need to race because they are racehorses, even if they are not winning ones.
#4, Black Storm. With a positive workout note and watching the gallop out last race my there are reasons to believe Black Storm can win this race at a decent price. As much as I want to pull the trigger and use the gelding as a single a run line from on other in here caught my eye. #2, Minoso. There is really nothing telling me Hector Palma’s trainee can get the seven-furlong distance. Looking three back and with the added distance I think this one may get the lead out of the gate though. If Pyfer can manage her internal ticker then maybe a 12-1 can shake up the pick 4. 4-2-8
Race 4 – S – Md Sp Wt 61k – 6 Furlongs – Turf – 3 YO
#6, Hockey Dad. With a run line showing speed then fade, then fade away more is not the best. The 2nd time colt with Nyquist as the sire recently showed a solid workout which noted he went best over winner, DK’s Crown. If you can not pick a horse in this race that has won, you might as well back one that has shown something against winners in a workout. #8, Mindhunter. The string of workouts leading up the race led me to including Mindhunter on my pick 4 ticket. Mike Puype may not show the strongest numbers with FTS but with a solid Tomlinson # at 389 and 5-1 morning line sets my thinking to the gelding showing some run first time out. 6-8-4
Race 5 – F – Md 40000 – (40-35) – One Mile – Dirt – 3 YO
All the ladies in the house stand up! Nine will do so going one mile on the dirt to close out the early pick 4 on the card.
#2, Chevelita. If Abel Cedillo can guide her to the front out of the gate, she might be able to set fractions to work in her favor or if chosen to do so by Cedillo just hit the gas with hopes to get loose.. #4, Tequila Diva. A nice routine of works coming into the race and Jeff Bonde being 3 of 5 with FTL led me to using the filly. If you check out the sire, Violence,
you will see some encouraging numbers routing and with 3 YO horses winning. 10-1 ML it satisfactory for me to add her on my ticket .#5, Made in Karoo. Peter Miller. 2-4-5
|2||MD 30000 (30-28) – 6 1/2 FURLONGS – 3 YO||1||7||5 (sct.)|
|3||CLM 125000 – (12.5-10.5) – 7 FURLONGS – 4 ^||4||2|
|4||S – MD SP WT 61K – 6 FURLONGS – TURF – 3 YO||6||8||4|
|5||F – MD 40000 (40-35) – ONE MILE – DIRT – 3 YO||2||4||5|
$1 base = 1,5,7 / 2,4 / 4,6,8 / 2,4,5 = 54
Bonus Material: The JK & Pete Special
The @utbighhair and @loomboldly special is in reference to the early days on ITM whenk the the benefits of the pick 5 were discussed often against playing the pick 4. At the time being my game is not ready to be dedicated to the pick 5, but I do believe in firing off one pick 5 ticket in addition to my pick 4 plays with respect to the OG’s who founded the site.
Race 1 – #6, Itsthattime. Trying turf for the first time, sprinting with a pattern of works speaking to me and even though the layoff has been long 10-1 is $$. Today’s special is served.
Pick 5 = 6 / 1,5,7 / 2,4 / 4,6,8 / 2,4 5)
$27 / .50
Good luck today and holler at me @blinkersoff420 and make sure to check out all the content with @intheomoneymedia, especially for the Pegasus!