Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Vinalia (GB) (Race 10)
Race #1: Selections: 8-6-7
8-Betty Pack is one of several class-dropping fillies in the Saturday afternoon opener. This gal drops from $50k Maiden Claimers to the bottom $8,000 level for trainer Steve Miyadi. She flashed speed and tired to last in a short field on March 21 but can carry her early zip a lot further against this reduced level. The 4-year-old makes her third start of the form cycle today. The obvious knock is the short price. 6-Charmed Dream takes a serious class plunge this afternoon for conditioner Sean McCarthy while making the all-important third career try off an improving Beyer pattern. 7-Cestrand got pounded by nearly 40 lengths in her Feb. 7 unveiling, but drops into this bottom level from that MDSW debut off a wide, non-threatening effort. She adds blinkers for career start number two, and this barn has solid stats with these types of class plungers.
Race #2: Selections: 5-4-7
The 1-for-18 5-Bold Supremacy has been facing better in recent months for trainer Richard Baltas and has run some of the better grass Beyers in this field. Today’s class relief should help this gelding register career win number two. 4-Zombo Bombo goes dirt to turf off a beaten-favorite third on March 22 when flashing speed and tiring going seven furlongs over the main track. He’s by Munnings, who gets an average 14% with grass sprint prodigy and may be able to carry his speed further on the green. The lone 3-year-old 7-Maximus has been beaten by double digits on turf in the last pair for conditioner Cesar DeAlba, but gets some class relief today and projects to get an upfront pressing trip.
Race #3: Selections: 2-1-4
2-Nation makes his second try off the bench for conditioner Michael McCarthy and sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (82). He was no match for winning stablemate Extensive on March 16, but can move forward today. The $260k Keeneland purchase 1-Nevada Beach is by multiple Grade 1-winner Omaha Beach, debuting for Team Baffert off the barn’s traditional spirited work tab. This sire gets an ordinary 7% with his 3-year-old & up debuting offspring, and the colt must negotiate the tricky rail draw going one mile. Nonetheless, he deserves much respect from this top barn. 4-Rank makes career start number 11 today for Team O’Neill while moving back to dirt and shortening up. The colt has trained well but has yet to regain some of that sharp 2024 form.
Race #4: Selections: 6-1-7
6-Miss Jo’s Curlin stumbled leaving the gate and ran into some traffic issues late when last seen on March 17. The 4-year-old gelding makes his third try of the form cycle today for trainer Breandan Galvin and returned to drill a sharp :59.3 over the synthetic track on April 10. 1-Big Notion ran a decent third in his five-furlong turf debut five months ago for trainer Steve Miyadi. He returns with Lasix for career start number two, and this barn is a solid 6 for 25 (24%) with a positive ROI with turf sprint runners returning off 61-180 days the past five years. 7-Roxiiesbadboy was no match for top choice Miss Jo’s Curlin on Feb. 9, but did improve Beyer-wise in start number two when switched to turf.
Race #5: Selections: 3-1-2
3-Shop Till You Drop moves up in class off her Feb. 21 win and claim, and now goes out for the Richard Baltas barn. The 4-year-old filly has trained well since the new acquisition, and this barn is a solid 3 for 11 (27%) with first off the claim dirt runners. 1-Isabel Ludlow was overmatched against allowance grass foes on April 10, but no moves back to the main track and drops back down to the N3L level, where she’s been competitive for Glatt. Blinkers on today. 2-Cheeky Gal goes turf to dirt for trainer Peter Miller and was runner-up at this level two back when finishing in front of Isabel Ludlow.
Race #6: Selections: 6-2-4
6-The Old Nine (Ire) makes career start number 10 this afternoon, but exits a sharp runner-up effort at this level on March 16 and now makes his second try off the seven-month freshening. The Sadler trainee needs only to repeat that last (76) grass Beyer to finally break through on American soil today. Blinkers off 2-Crazy Cavalier looks like the main threat to the top choice when finishing fourth behind him in the aforementioned March 16 event. This gelded son of Palace Malice has hit the board in five turf sprints from eight career tries. 4–Bigredsandribeyes hasn’t been out in 15 months since being claimed for $50k back in January 2024. He returns at the same level for a new barn that’s 3-for-5 (60%) with a lofty $7.28 ROI with new turf sprint purchases, albeit a small sample.
Race #7: Selections: 1-2-5
The ultra-consistent 1-Richi (Chi) has hit the board in 12 of 13 career tries for Baffert and exits a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile behind barn stablemate Cavalieri. The 5-year-old mare figures to be aggressively sent from the rail. The other Baffert trainee is 2-Splendora. The lightly raced 4-year-old daughter of Audible is Grade-1 placed and is reunited with winning pilot Juan Hernandez. She’s bred to relish two turns. 5-Ultimate Authority was no match for Richi in the Beholder Mile when finishing sixth and last, but was a sharp winner two-back against softer.
Race #8: Selections 3-8-1
The lightly raced 3-Tom Seaver ran well in defeat when returning to turf and finishing third on March 22 for the D’Amato barn and now makes his third try of the form cycle. The son of Sir Prancealot has come back to fire a pair of sharp a.m. drills over the synthetic track since that encouraging effort. The other D’Amato gelding is returnee 8-Miracle Mark. This gelding returns with blinkers off a sharp work tab that includes a five-furlong bullet drill over the synthetic course in :58.1. He ran third in his only prior downhill effort when finishing third behind Grade-1 winner Raging Torrent and Grade-2 winner King of Gosford. Class dropping 1-Tigerhon (Fr) makes his third start of the form cycle today for conditioner Mark Glatt and just missed the place spot in a blanket finish for the runner-up spot on March 15. The five-time winning 7-year-old gelding has run well enough over the downhill layout and merits big respect at this reduced level.
Race #9: Selections 3-1-5
3-Mr. Disrespectful gets top billing off his 8 ¾-length one-mile main track romp on March 22 over a short field and should be tough to overhaul at short odds with a similar effort. 1-Be Punctual steps up off the March 2 claim and win for new conditioner Bob Hess and gets go-to veteran pilot Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. The gelding will have to step up considerably to beat the top pick, however. The veteran 8-year-old gelding 5-Lil Richards Bello is likely to move forward, making his second try off the bench for trainer Peter Eurton. The four-time winner finished a troubled trip fourth on March 14, and has run some main track Beyer figures in the past that would be competitive today.
Race #10: Selections 4-2-7
4-Vinalia (GB) ran well in defeat in her March 15 grass sprint debut when fanned six or seven-wide at the top of the lane to engage the frontrunners before getting swallowed up late. Still, she was only beaten two lengths and is likely to build off that encouraging effort for D’Amato, who usually doesn’t have his fillies fully cranked at first asking. The daughter of Grade-1 winner Havana Gold has come back to work well since her unveiling, including a four-furlong “best of 25” bullet synthetic drill on April 5. Runner-up 2-Prestige Fungson was fanned out even wider than the top choice when making her debut in the aforementioned March 15 six-furlong turf sprint, and now adds Lasix for career start number two. The Peter Eurton trainee is a logical threat with any normal second-out improvement. Hernandez sticks. The other D’Amato-trained filly, 7-Favor to You removes the shades this afternoon and shortens back up to a sprint for career start number three. She was a game second to the repeat winner Irish import Jungle Peace (from the same barn) when sprinting on grass two-back.
