Santa Anita Late Pick 4
by @blinkersoff40
After losing sleep and having reoccurring dreams of JK & PTF yelling “step your game up” at me the time is here to revenge my poor start writing on the site. In the four-race sequence two days ago I hit my single ($6) and missed everything else in the sequence. It happens though and today is another day.
Tip the cap to Dr. Martin Luther King Jr today and just be nice to people, including friends and family that drive you crazy. The late pick 4 is the sequence today that I will be launching winners at. Below is the write up and like always do you own handicapping. If you pull something from this article which contributes to winning some coin, then a smile will be on my face but when it comes down to it you have to get dirty in this game to have success. Dig in then dig deeper to find that horse which can change your whole day.
Race 6 – Clm 25000(25-22.5) – 6 Furlongs – Dirt – 4^
Ride or Die, DMX said, and it is the approach to the late pick 4 I will be taking. #2, Littlebitamedal went about a mile wide around the turn to the stretch last out at Los Al, and still looked like a winner until he lugged in a little from probably being tired and going a mile wide. With the inside post draw the trip I envision is to let the speed go bananas, stay nice and tight on the rail, make a move, and explode down the stretch to bring the riches to us all. Easier said than done for sure but Gonzalez reads the PP’s. On paper the speed looks to be there, on paper though a marriage certificate looks great as well. I will single away to get the pick 4 party started.
2 – 7 – 5
Race 7 – F – The Megahertz Grade III, $100k – One Mile – Turf – 4^
If my math is correct using two horses in a 6-horse field means I have 1/3rd of a chance to move on in the pick 4. Also, a 2/3rd chance of losing. Thank you to Pasco County (FL) Education for teaching me that 20 years ago. Only if they worked on my grammar a bit more.
#4, Mucho Unusual speaks for herself. Tim Yakteen looks to have the mare ready and you can not ask for a better horse for the course & distance. No reason to break down #4, the price is short (9-5 ML), and she will likely be a popular single with a body of work which speaks for herself, especially in this field.
#5, Ippodamia’s Girl will bring the Unsolved Mysteries angle into play. The mare last raced Nov 2019 at Santa Anita but the early TimeformUS pace # caught my eye at 118. You can have all the pace advantage in the world but if you have not won at the distance prior after a few attempts it means nothing to me. Speed is great, but ability to keep a lead and finish a winner is more exciting. Also, I am wearing my Richard Baltas is my homie t-shirt today and with an 8-1 ML she will be used to possibly spring an upset.
4 – 5 – 6
Race 8 – Clm 16000(16-12.5) N2L – One Mile – Dirt – 4^
Well hot damn we have a party, and the cool four-year-old and up horses are invited, as long as they have not won more than twice. This race condition is one of the easiest I have read in a while and it was a nice breather for once. Sometimes you can breakdown the racing conditions into a paragraph when they get crazy long.
#9, Bam Bam Again, when a horse drops in class and improves in the Beyer # department it leads to me using them. A simple angle which may or may not work out and yes, the previous race can be dissected to validate if the number is true. It seems like a simple angle, but reality is you would be surprised how many class droppers do not improve at all, just continue to run flat or show signs of nothing.
#3, Union Leader. If the two inside horses use their speed accordingly, they will either get away from the field and be loose until the finish or crush the pace. If so, it will set up for the 1/20 Jeff Metz trainer horse. Yes, 1/20, this race is not the Santa Anita Derby if you have figured it out and with the gelding seems to be the only one here that is a real closer.
#1, Western Smoke & #2 Tejon. Both speed horses will be used in case one gets ahead and sets a comfortable pace.
9 – 3 – 1 – 2
Race 9 – Md 50000(50-45) – One Mile – Turf – 3 YO
#2, El Joy lost last out to Mac Daddy who has already came back for a win. The MD 70k race seems to be legit and that is enough reasoning to use the Kitten’s Joy / Blue Grass music colt in his first shot as a three-year-old.
#8, Labor Union is headed up by trainer Peter Eurton who has not had an ideal start to the meet 1/20. Yet I will use the Union Rags colt for the same reason above, I like that Mac Daddy came back to win and the addition of blinkers may help out. Disregard my comment earlier in the article using horses who have already tried a few times at a surface and distance already, I love this game.
#7, Sierra Pass is a first-time starter with progeny numbers I like from the dam side, check them out and you will see why I choose to include the 30-1 morning line horse.
#1, Mount Pelliar has competitive speed figures and will have to work out a closing trip from the #1 hole, if it can be done though Prat is one to do it and even though this is the 5th shot at the distance and surface to leave such an obvious horse will not be a choice I make.
2 – 8 – 7 – 1
Best of luck today and be sure to give me a follow @blinkersoff40 and @InTheMoneyMedia for all great horse racing content.
