Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Thirsty Trickster (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 1-5-3
Blinkers off 1-The Old Nine (Ire) shortens back to six panels this afternoon, second off the bench, and finished a sharp closing second over this course and distance two back with an 81 Beyer—par for this level. Dirt to turf 5-Player B prefers to finish underneath rather than win, but has run grass Beyers that have met or exceeded par. The 6-year-old is reunited with jockey Juan Hernandez. 3-Bolt Supremacy is 1-for-24, but moves back to turf today, his preferred surface, and makes the third try of the form cycle for conditioner Richard Baltas.
Race #2: Selections: 6-3-5
6-Mr. Tariff is slowly improving for trainer Jeff Bonde, exiting a closing third on Dec. 13 at Los Al, over a pair of today’s returning rivals. The 3-year-old gelding adds Lasix today and makes the all-important third career start. Maldonado is back for the return mount. Two sprints to a route, 3-One Step Beyond makes career start number nine this afternoon, having hit the board a half dozen times. The Pavel gelding just missed by a neck in his most recent try on Jan. 2, and is a logical threat with a similar effort on the stretch out. His sire gets an above average 19% with dirt route runners. 5-Golden Chaser finished a troubled trip fifth on Jan. 11 and now drops back down to today’s $20k maiden claiming level, where he finished second two back. The gelding goes second-time Lasix today.
Race #3: Selections: 1-4-5
Route to sprint 1-Silly Rabbit returns off a five-month layoff, co-tops the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (79), and has run well in all three career tries. The son of Uncle Mo sports the top late pace figure in this field, and should get a perfect ground-saving closing journey with Berrios from the fence. 4-A Day to Remember has not been out in six months, but has run well in all four turf sprint tries for trainer Mark Glatt, and has trained well for today’s return to action. A repeat of the gelding’s maiden-breaking (87) grass Beyer over this course would make him tough to overhaul today. The speedy 5-Burning Rubber shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon after finishing a good second behind repeat winner Crazy Cavalier when last seen back on Nov. 23, when facing winners for the first time. He figures to get a favorable upfront-pressing trip.
Race #4: Selections: 1-3-4
The ultra-consistent 1-Auditory loves this track (5-3-1-0) and 5 ½ furlong distance (4-3-1-0) and has beaten some of her main rivals here on multiple occasions. She exits a beaten favorite third under the Los Al lights when breaking slowly and can rebound today on the stretch out and venue change. 3-Rousing Jewel has finished behind the top pick in recent months but now goes first off the claim for trainer Steve Knapp. This barn is 10-for-47 (21%) with newly acquired purchases sprinting on the SA dirt. 4-Uffda defeated both Auditory and Rousing Jewel on Dec. 14 at Los Al when runner-up going this 5 ½-furlong trip and is quick enough to clear this field if sent by apprentice jockey Alfredo Bautista.
Race #5: Selections: 6-4-3
The import 6-Inbox (GB) (by multiple G1 winner Ectot) makes her first Stateside try for D’Amato off one start at Dundalk back on Oct. 10. The 3-year-old filly has trained well over the Santa Anita synthetic course in preparation for today’s U.S. unveiling, and this barn has solid stats with these turf types over the last several years—Lasix on. 4-Victorious Dream (Ire) attracted decent tote support for her first American try on Nov. 9 but broke slowly and never really picked up her feet, finishing fifth of six. She adds Lasix, stretches out an additional eighth of a mile, and can improve for McCarthy. 3-Channel Place flashed improved speed on the stretch out on Nov. 29 for Team O’Neill before tiring to sixth, and now makes the all-important third career start, second off the bench. The Liam’s Map filly switches to excellent turf pilot, Hector Berrios.
Race #6: Selections: 5-4-1
A beaten favorite in the last pair, 5-Thirsty Trickster goes second off the claim for conditioner Jeff Mullins, exiting a wide trip sixth at Los Al. This barn is a strong 6 for 10 (60%) with a $5.04 ROI with this claiming angle on dirt at Santa Anita the past five years, having won five straight with this move. 4-Wishtheyallcouldbe exits a sharp 2 ¼-length win over this course and distance on Dec. 28 over a bulky field and now goes first off the claim for conditioner Ryan Hanson. This barn is only 1-for-44 (2%) with new acquisitions the past five years, however. 1-Emirates Affair flashed speed and tired badly against better on Jan. 11, but drops in class today and was a winner against similar two-back with a (75) dirt Beyer. This 8-year-old mare is a 12-time winner, but both tries at Santa Anita have resulted in double-digit length defeats.
Race #7: Selections: 10-3-1-4
The first leg of the late $3 Pick three features an ultra-competitive 1X optional $50k claiming group of fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. 10-Resolve is stuck outside but drops out of the American Oaks (G1) into this softer spot this afternoon for conditioner Leonard Powell and was a solid second at this level two-back. He’ll need to work out a trip from out here, however. 3-Royal Charter (GB) just missed third in a solid effort on Dec. 28, facing a trio of today’s returning rivals, and now goes second off the claim for Mullins. This red-hot barn is 4 for 14 (29%) with second off the claim turf routers at SA the past five years, and this 6-year-old mare should appreciate the additional real estate, second off the bench. 1-Corporate Violette (Ire) had little excuse in her most recent try on Dec. 28 when backing up, but can rebound today with another upfront-pressing trip. 4-Angelic Appeal (Ire) has not shown a whole lot in two Stateside tries for D’Amato, but switches to Hernandez today off the mini-freshening and can improve quickly.
Race #8: Selections: 4-5-3
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the G3 La Canada five times and has three bullets this afternoon. His filly 4-Brilliantly (a $500k Keeneland purchase by Uncle Mo) stretches out to two turns on dirt, making her third start of the form cycle, exiting an even fourth against considerably better in the La Brea (G1). The blinkers come back on, and she is reunited with Hernandez—a solid gate-to-wire threat. The Doug O’Neil-trained 3-So There She Was also drops of the aforementioned La Brea and G2 Mother Goose and is proven around two turns, taking the 1 1/16-mile Remington Oaks S. back in late September. One of the other Bafferts, 5-Nafisa, took a while to start slowly paying dividends on her lofty $1.8 million purchase price for Zedan Racing, but has strung together back-to-back wins. She might now be at her best at age 5.
Race #9: Selections: 4-9-1
4-Christel Clean has never been off the board in four career tries, including a pair of wins for Sadler. The 4-year-old daughter of Violence switches to turf today and has enough grass pedigree on both sides to suggest she will successfully handle the surface switch. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 16 for 54 (30%) with grass sprint runners at Santa Anita the past three years. 9-Shezmisbehaving got rolling too late when finishing well for sixth when last seen back on Oct. 26, facing better, and now returns off a three-month freshening against cheaper. The 7-year-old mare owns the field’s best late pace figure and projects to get another live race flow to close into. 1-Goodnight Nellie moves back to the turf, exiting a ½-length score at Los Al on Dec. 12, and has run well in her two previous grass sprint tries at Del Mar. The 5-year-old mare switches to Hernandez this afternoon and may fall into a favorable pocket trip behind the pacesetters.
