Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Darya (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 6-2-3-1
6-Darya (Ire) rallied strongly for second in a sharp Stateside unveiling on Feb. 21 for D’Amato after getting shuffled back early on. The daughter of multiple Group 1 winner Persian King should be tough to overhaul in start number two over the local grass course and will appreciate an additional eighth of a mile to work with. The Leonard Powell-trained 2-Nerida (Fr) also makes start number two on American soil after a tardy break on Feb. 28 when well-backed as the public betting choice. She’s by G1 winner Zelzal and is likely to improve off that fifth-place effort. Trainer Michael McCarthy sends out a pair of second-time starters. 3-Tipitap flashed good speed on debut two weeks ago before tiring to sixth at 27-1 and figures to have gained valuable racing experience off that OK try. She draws well again. 1-Mass was a well-beaten sixth on dirt on debut after attracting decent tote support. The daughter of Not This Time (16% grass routes) will likely show more today, switching to Hernandez.
Race #2: Selections: 5-2-1
5-Lorenzo Berini is a seven-start maiden who moves back to the main track on the class drop for the Papaprodromou barn and figures to take these a long way on the front end. The 4-year-old gelded son of Authentic should prove tough to reel in late, making the third start of the form cycle. 2-Redial hasn’t been out in nine months but is a logical win threat after a much-improved second with a field’s best (80) main track Beyer when switched to dirt last June at Los Al. This barn has above-average stats with main track extended returnees. Blinkers off 1-Maximum Gladiator goes two sprints to a route today and drops from $32k maiden claimers to today’s $20,000 level with an improving Beyer pattern. He’s bred to relish two turns.
Race #3: Selections: 3-2-5
3-Coach Cronin scampered away to a sharp three-length win at 4-5 against similar on Feb. 20 (earning a lofty 90 Beyer) for conditioner Mark Glatt and looks primed for the repeat at short odds. 2-Refocus was a wide fourth as the tepid betting choice going this one-mile trip on Feb. 22 for Team O’Neill and Reddam Racing. The 5-year-old is a bit suspect at the distance but is a potential bounce-back candidate. 5-Fix It Quick is returning off a six-month freshening off a steady worktab. The gelding ran some decent efforts last year over the main track and may have matured further in the interim for Mike Puype.
Race #4: Selections: 5-2-4
5-Texas Wildcat has improved Beyer-wise in each subsequent try for a low-profile barn, including earning a field’s best (57) on Feb. 20 with a solid runner-up effort. Another potential move forward makes this gelded son of Frosted a logical threat to break maiden today with regular pilot Kyle Frey. 2-Map Me Sexy returns from a six-month freshening as a first-time gelding for conditioner Doug O’Neill after a non-threatening, well-beaten tenth and last back in September of last year. The sophomore son of Liam’s Map drops in for a first-time tag today and adds Lasix off an encouraging worktab. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 8-for-28 (29%) with a $3.41 ROI with dirt starters at Santa Anita this year. 4-Another Juanito finished fourth behind the top choice in his last, but fits on raw numbers in this weak lineup.
Race #5: Selections: 2-6-1
2-Theresasilverlinin was outrun in her lone grass try but deserves another chance moving back to the turf after a sharp-looking main track score on Feb. 14. The 7-time winning 6-year-old mare is by Stanford, who gets an above-average 16% with grass route runners, and she followed up that last score with a “best of 40” bullet four furlongs in :46.4 on March 16. A recent fast-closing runner-up over the Turf Paradise grass course, 6-Catalina Cocktail ships back into Southern California for Sadler. The 5-year-old mare has worked smartly over the Santa Anita synthetic course since that encouraging last run and looks well-spotted this afternoon. 1-She’s Splendid was an even third with no real excuse in her most recent grass route try on Feb. 28 at 41-1, but gets a key rider change to Hernandez today and sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (74).
Race #6: Selections: 7-2-3
An encouraging sign to see 7-Dustem Too moving up from $20k maiden claimers to today’s $50,000 level after a disappointing debut try breaking from the rail. I’m willing to excuse that poor showing after she broke a step slow, rushed up into contention, and folded late. This barn is a solid 8-for-27 (30%) with a $3.18 ROI with second-time dirt sprint starters at Santa Anita the past five years, and improvement is likely. 2-Lyndee’s Dream showed improved speed in start number two before tiring to finish a well-beaten fourth and now drops back down to the $50k maiden claiming level today for trainer Antonio Garcia. Another potential move forward makes this gal one of the main contenders for the win this afternoon. The Sean McCarthy-trained 3-Run On Om goes turf to dirt and drops in for a first-time tag today for career try number three. Om gets a respectable 15% with dirt sprint starters, and this filly can improve on the class drop and surface switch.
Race #7: Selections: 1-5-3
The multiple stakes-winning 1-Grand Slam Smile is ultra-consistent, sporting an impressive 18-10-6-2 career record and is likely to get back on winning terms this afternoon, dropping out of the Buena Vista (G2) on the cutback in distance. This talented mare holds a double turf Beyer advantage over the rest of this field and is proven over the downhill layout for conditioner Sean McCarthy. 5-Prancingthruparis has finished behind the top choice on multiple occasions, and while there’s no reason to think she can turn the tables this afternoon, she makes her second try off the bench for the Eurton barn and merits respect as a stakes winner. 3-Young Love is the potential upsetter today if she breaks on top with Gonzalez after chasing a 21.4 and 43.2 half over the downhill last start and losing the crop. The Grazen filly is lightly raced for Miller and 4-for-9 lifetime. The filly gets a stiff class test this afternoon, but she could prove tough to reel in late with an alert break.
Race #8: Selections: 4-5-3
4-Hawker has regrouped after a disappointing effort back in early January based on solid local drills for conditioner Andy Mathis, and now drops back down to a softer level, second off the claim. If this gelded son of Justify can run back to that (89) Beyer figure from two-back at Del Mar, he should prove tough today with red-hot Jaramillo getting the return mount. Dirt runners returning off 61-180 days is the sweet spot for this barn (14-for-32, 44% with a $3.29 ROI). 5-Hard to Figure was second-best to the top choice at Del Mar two back but is 0-for-11 over Santa Anita and switches back to winning pilot Juan Hernandez. 3-Code Duello was beaten only a neck in last and a winner two back since moving to the turf for trainer Craig Dollase. Today, the veteran 8-year-old gelding moves back to dirt but continues to work well in the a.m., arriving here in top form.
Race #9: Selections: 4-2-5-8
A beaten even-money favorite in the San Marcos (G3), the veteran hard-hitting 8-year-old 4-Gold Phoenix looks to get back on the winning track today after back-to-back off-the-board finishes. He’s 0-for-5 at today’s trip but has had a series of outside posts in recent tries and should benefit from the better draw. He’s the only runner with four triple-digit turf Beyers on the resume. The late-closing 2-Truly Quality benefits with today’s 1 ½-mile journey, where he sports a solid 5-3-0-2 career mark at the marathon distance. The multiple Grade 2 winner draws well again this afternoon and will be picking up the pieces late if able to get an adequate pace to close into. 5-Mondego (GB) was an upset 9-1 winner of the aforementioned San Marcos over a trio of today’s returning rivals, but will need another favorable trip today for the potential repeat. The Grade 2 winning 8-Watsonville is unproven at the distance but may find himself as today’s pacesetter if sent to the front by the Hall of Famer Mike Smith despite the outside draw. The Mark Glatt barn is red-hot as of late.
