Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Meaning (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 1-8-2
The 12-race Santa Anita Derby blockbuster card kicks off with a field of eight sophomore N1X fillies over the downhill grass course. Post time is 12:00 p.m. PT, 3:00 p.m. ET.
1-Mo’ Em Down has not been out in eight months for trainer Peter Miller, but has trained steadily for this afternoon’s return to action and showed solid ability last year when smashing maidens at Churchill by 9 ½ lengths in start number two and followed up that win with second in the Grade 3 Sorrento. She is by Caracaro, who gets a strong 24% with grass sprinters and should relish the switch to turf. The D’Amato-trained 8-Struck By Her (Ire) was a maiden winner to start the year in her first U.S. try, and then finished an even sixth in the Sweet Life S. on Feb. 7. She now drops down in class today, making the third try of the form cycle, and is nicely drawn outside for Geroux. 2-Marjoram is back after a five-month freshening, having won on debut in November at Churchill. She moves to turf today, has plenty of grass pedigree, and lures Hernandez this afternoon. Lasix on.
Race #2: Selections: 7-5-1
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out a pair to kick off the first of three pick fours on the card. 7-March of Time (a son of Justify) has been plagued by layoffs and returns after a 15-month hiatus with a steady work tab. He fired back-to-back (94) Beyers before hitting the sidelines, and the 5-year-old lures the barn’s go-to pilot off the extended break. Blinkers off this afternoon, and he will likely come out running. His stablemate, 5-Crude Velocity, was a rare 10-1 winner on debut March 7 for a barn that usually attracts strong support with firsters. The son of Beau Liam followed up that score with a sharp bullet five furlongs in :59.1 on March 26 and sheds the shades for his first crack against winners. 1-Comedy Town has speed and figures to be hustled along from the rail by Berrios to get position today, having run back-to-back solid efforts sprinting over this course for the Papaprodromou barn.
Race #3: Selections: 2-3-4
2-Winston Avenue was no match for stablemate runaway maiden winner Cherokee Nation on Feb. 27, who runs later in the card in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but has shown solid ability for Team Baffert in two of three career tries and holds the experience edge over several of these 3-year-old colts this afternoon. 3-Yautown (by G1 winner Yaupon) has trained steadily for conditioner Michael McCarthy and lures Jaramillo at first asking. This sophomore should come out running. Blinkers off 4-Captain Shreve took a step backward on March 7 when a wide sixth, but the gelding’s first two tries were a pair of sharp seconds for the Papaprodromous barn, and he’s a strong bounce-back candidate today.
Race #4: Selections: 3-5-4
3-Tommy Norris steps up in class this afternoon, having won two straight for the red-hot Librado Barocio barn, but may be ready to handle stakes foes this time around after posting a “best of 79” four furlongs in :46.3 since that last game victory. The Stanford gelding has never been better. The stakes-winning 5-Sammy Davis goes turf to dirt, having finished first or second in five of six starts for Sadler, and makes the third try of the form cycle today. Jaramillo takes over for Berrios. 4-Thirsty Rebel also returns to dirt, where he’s had good success, including just missing by a nose in the I’m Smokin S. last fall at Del Mar, when beating both Fionello and Sammy Davis.
Race #5: Selections: 4-6-7
The Leonard Powell-trained 4-Zalamo (Fr) left himself with simply too much ground to make up in the last two starts, but takes a sizable class drop today, second off the bench, and co-tops the best late pace figure in the field in a race that is projected to have lively splits by TimeformUS pace projector. The gelding’s recent synthetic drills have been solid, and he looms an upset chance. 6-Vantastic is winless since October 2024, but finished an OK second off the five-month layoff on March 7, when getting the best of four of today’s returning rivals and figures to get another live pace to run into this afternoon for trainer Peter Eurton. 7-Maniatic (Ire) rallied sharply late for the solid 7-1 starter allowance win on Feb. 27 and now drops back in for a $25k tag. The 6-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (85).
Race #6: Selections: 5-1-4
5-Meaning exits a sharp win in the Feb. 8 Las Virgenes S. over 4-5 beaten favorite Explora, and the daughter of Gun Runner looks poised to get another favorable stalking trip today for conditioner Michael McCarthy. The sophomore filly’s Beyers have improved with each subsequent start. Hernandez sticks here after guiding the Baffert charge 1-Forced Entry to back-to-back wins, including the G3 Santa Ysabel. Forced Entry is a logical threat after posting back-to-back speed figures of (82, 81). The daughter of Charlatan still offers plenty of upside and draws well this afternoon. The multiple stakes-placed 4-Hypergamy has never tried dirt in eight lifetime tries, but is by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and could prove tough today if she shows any further improvement switching to the main track for Team O’Neill.
Race #7: Selections: 3-6-5
A pair of runner-up finishes sprinting on turf to start the year makes the seven-start maiden 3-Booked Clubhouse the one to beat in the first leg of the pick six. The 3-year-old gelding will once again need some adequate pace to run at, however. 6-Oracle of Paradise returns off a six-month layoff for conditioner Brian Koriner and flashed solid ability on turf last year at Del Mar. Lasix is added this afternoon. Trainer Phil D’Amato doesn’t win with many first-time starters, but 5-Eugene Sledge deserves a long look in here debuting with Lasix. The Mo Forza gelding has trained steadily for today’s unveiling and gets Antonio Fresu in the saddle, who clicks at nearly a 20% clip with this barn’s grass sprint firsters, which is considerably higher than the barn’s overall average.
Race #8: Selections: 7-6-5
7-Mohaven returns to her preferred dirt surface this afternoon, where she’s finished first or second in all four attempts, including taking the Golden State Juvenile Fillies S. at Del Mar last fall. She adds blinkers today, making her second try off the bench, and should sit a perfect stalking trip with new rider Jaramillo. The stakes-winning 6-Too Sassy goes turf to dirt off the mini-freshening today for the low-profile barn and should prove tough, returning to the main track, if able to avoid a pace tussle with Another Zero. The sophomore daughter of Om has fired back-to-back solid five-furlong drills over at San Luis Rey in preparation for this. 5-Another Zero kicked away to a 4 ½-length maiden score on March 8 in start number two as the odds-on choice and looks well-placed for her first crack against winners.
Race #9: Selections: 10-7-1
Second off the claim 10-Prince Dolce must negotiate today’s outside draw, but his closing running style (in a race that’s projected to have solid early splits) shouldn’t matter all that much as he is likely to sit back and make one big run late. The addition of blinkers may even keep him within a suitable striking range today for Knapp. 7-Warm Sun and Brew has hit the board in all five-career grass tries and was third (beaten less than a length) behind the top choice in last. A logical threat once again. 1-Stylishlyacclaimed was a sharp 20-1 upset maiden winner off the long layoff on Feb. 14 for conditioner Carla Gaines with a strong (80) Beyer, and this lightly-raced 6-year-old has already proven she can handle today’s one-mile trip. The meet’s leading pilot is back in the saddle for the return mount.
Race #10: Selections: 7-2-5
7-Intrepido had a perfect prep for this in the Feb. 7 Robert B. Lewis (G3) when returning off a four-month freshening, finishing a game second for conditioner Jeff Mullins. The Grade 1 American Pharoah winner will need to improve on the Beyer scale to win this, but should have every opportunity to do so, nicely positioned on the outside for a favorable stalking journey. The pricey $2.4 million son of Into Mischief 2-Potente progressed nicely in start number two when taking the Grade 2 San Felipe in only his second career try for Team Baffert. The well-bred colt returned to fire a sharp bullet five furlongs on March 26 and looms a solid repeat candidate with another progressive move forward. Hernandez sticks. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Santa Anita Derby a record nine times. 5-So Happy was put in a difficult spot in the San Felipe when finishing behind both Potente and Robusta when battling for the early lead on the stretch out, and is eligible to bounce back this afternoon if able to establish early dominance.
Race #11: Selections: 1-6-3
1-Queen Maxima has won seven of her last nine turf races for trainer Jeff Mullins and was an odds-on 4 ¼-length winner of this event last year. This talented 5-year-old mare has been well-rested since taking the Las Cienegas (G3) back in January, has never been worse than first or second over the Santa Anita lawn, and holds a double Beyer advantage over the rest of this field. The obvious knock is the likely short number. 6-Princesa Moche (Per) was a disappointing well-beaten fifth in the Buena Vista (G2) but is back sprinting today and was a good second behind the top choice in the aforementioned Las Cienegas. The road warrior 3-Love Appeals ships into Southern California from Florida for conditioner Miguel Clement, looking to win her first graded stakes off a series of in-the-money grass sprint finishes. The six-time winner makes her third start of the form cycle today.
Race #12: Selections: 4-1-2
4-High Society U finished in front of four of today’s returning rivals with a strong unveiling on March 7 for trainer Jonathan Thomas and should prove tough to overall in career try number two with any normal second-out progression. This barn has solid stats with second-time starter turf runners with Kimura in the saddle. A beaten favorite in both U.S. tries, 1-Cortina d’Amprezzo (Ire) moves inside today off a decent third going longer for D’Amato and exits a race that has produced a pair of next-out winners. The 3-year-old filly should be making up good ground late, going second-time Lasix. Her stablemate 2-Silkie Sevei (Ire) flattened out late to third when well-backed in her first U.S. start on Feb. 1, a race which has since produced a trio of next-out winners. A strong five-furlong synthetic drill in :59.1 on March 28 indicates she will also move forward this afternoon in a competitive nightcap to close out a big afternoon of racing in Southern California.
