Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Speaking Scout (Race 7)
There are 7 stake races on the Saturday 10-race card program including the Grade 2 Twilight Derby and Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes. There’s also a $1 Million dollar pick 6 Jackpot Payout Guarantee If a player hits the single ticket Saturday. It’s not likely, but stranger things have happened in the pick 6 handicapping arena. The Jackpot Pick 6 begins in race number five and I’ve included a reasonable $80 ticket below:
Race #1: 5-Air Force Red gets some class relief after a wide trip in the G2 Eddie Read Stakes in most recent effort October 1 and stretches back out this afternoon for trainer Leonard Powell. The 4-year-old is reunited with winning rider (who had several other options) in today’s opening $80K Lure Stakes. A pair of D’Amato geldings are also dropping out of graded stake events. 3-Gregorian Chant (GB) finished ahead of the top choice as the beaten favorite in the Eddie Read; makes 2nd start off the bench and is a 5-time winner over this turf course. 2-Prince Abama (Ire) makes 3rd start off the layoff and comes off a decent 3rd in the G2 City of Hope Mile Stakes.
Race #2: This $50K Maiden Claiming sprint for juvenile fillies looks like a spread race for those participating in horizontal exotics. 2-Night Party dueled and folded in 2nd career start after showing an encouraging runner-up finish in DMR debut on September 9. The filly goes out for new connections off the claim today. 4-Golden Again has been hampered by bad breaks in both outings but is on the improve and exits a September 22 race that’s produced a pair of next-out winners. 7-Time Together was eased and walked off the track in disappointing initial start at DMR but shows 5 drills since that subpar unveiling and drops in for a tag this afternoon while removing the blinkers. 6-Sweet Hello also drops in for a tag today after slow start in September 22 debut where she spotted the field a couple lengths from the get-go. The filly attracted some decent tote action that afternoon indicating she might have some ability.
Race #3: 5-Going Global (Ire) a winner of this event last year looks to bounce back after being upset as the heavy chalk in the G2 John C. Mabee Stakes by today’s main rival again Avenue de France (Fr). The multiple graded stakes winner is 9 for 16 lifetime and 5 for 6 over the SA grass course. A winning rebound effort is likely. 4-Avenue de France (Fr) has won 3 of his last 5 including defeating top choice fairly easily in last and deserves upmost respect as today’s main rival once again. D’Amato’s other filly 2-Burgoo Alley (Ire) has finished behind Going Global (Ire) and Avenue de France (Fr) in last two starts but should be forwardly placed today and is a multiple winner over the track and distance.
Race #4: Of the John Sadler-trained pair 5-Saffa’s Day has been freshened off sharp win down at Del Mar and has trained extremely well for his return try this afternoon. Hernandez sticks here. Stablemate and beaten favorite 2-Redline comes off a troubled trip 3rd place effort in last and two-back was a game 2nd in a race at DMR that’s produced 4 next-out winners. The lightly raced 3-Traegar finished ahead of Redline in last and improved 11 Beyer points making first start against winners while making initial outing over this racetrack.
Race #5: 3-First Peace is by G1 winner Funtastic and gets tepid vote off runner-up grass finish in last where he earned a field’s best (70) Beyer speed figure. The colt stretches out today and makes his third career start for trainer Mark Glatt. 8-Zio Jo improved on the stretch-out and switches back to Hernandez this afternoon. The colt returned with a solid 4-furlong main track drill in sub :47 since last start. 2-Valiancer has hit the board in all four career starts for Mullins and comes in with an improving Beyer pattern.
20 Cent Jackpot Pick 6: 2,3,4,7,8 With 2,3,4,6,7 With 8,9 With 4 With 3,9 With 2,3,8,10 = $80
Race #6: 7-Cast Member was visually impressive when disposing of Maiden field in DMR unveiling on September 3 and the son of Munnings is nicely drawn for stakes debut for trainer Tim Yakteen. 2-Chismosa is 3 for 3 including two stakes’ victories and her Beyer has improved with each subsequent start. She makes first start over the Santa Anita strip and first attempt at 7 furlongs. 4-Big Celebration was a sharp wire-to-wire Maiden winner at Los Al in last and is bred to handle the stretch-out to 7 furlongs.
Race #7: 8-Speaking Scout heads west for trainer Graham Motion off impressive 5-length win at Hawthorne at today’s 1 1/8-mile trip where he earned the best last out turf Beyer. His versatile running style should allow him to work out a decent trip with Hernandez. 9-War at Sea is stuck outside but has won 3 of his last 4 over this grass course for trainer Ron Ellis and makes 2nd start off the mini-freshening this afternoon. He returned with a “best of 49” 4-furlong work in :46.4 October 24. 3-Perfect Flight comes off game main track win for Miller and lone turf try was a solid runner-up in the G3 La Jolla at Del Mar. Flight’s stablemate 4-Handy Dandy has hit the board in 9 consecutive turf tries and gets Rispoli who replaces Hernandez who pilots our top choice.
Race #8: 4-Giver Not a Taker returns to the main track where he’s 2 for 2 for trainer Peter Miller after failed turf try in the G3 Zuma Beach. Anything resembling his effort two-back in the I’m Smokin Stakes on September 9 will make him tough to deny this afternoon at short odds. Recent Maiden winner 6-Golf Drama is by Smiling Tiger who is a G1 winner going 7 furlongs and this colt should find himself on or close to the lead this afternoon. 2-Passarando ships in from Golden Gate off sharp win on the Tapeta and should appreciate the stretch-out to 7 furlongs. This high percentage barn, however, is 0 for 17 at SA the past 5 years.
Race #9: 3-Connie Swingle has won 4 of her last 5 for D’Amato and comes off a career best turf Beyer (90) in Unzip Me Stakes making her 3 for 3 on the SA downhill course. Connie’s stablemate 9-Amy C (GB) comes off a 4-month freshening; has worked very well for today’s return effort and is proven over the course and off a layoff. Rispoli lands here. 1-Freedom Flyer made her downhill course debut a winning one September 30 but must now negotiate the tricky rail draw. This filly has yet to string two wins together in 18 starts.
Race #10: 2-Tezzaray (GB) stretches back out after an eventful trip in the Unzip Me Stakes. The filly broke at the rear of the pack; was forced to check badly when making a move past the half mile marker; and then closed strongly along the inside when finally shaking free. She galloped out well and shows and improving Beyer pattern. Miller’s other filly 3-Pammy’s Ready has good positional speed and finished in front of stablemate in last stakes try when finishing 2nd by a neck at 20/1. She also sports a solid improving Beyer pattern. 10-Cairo Dreams is the class of this field returning off the mini-freshening for Hess and dropping out of consecutive Grade 1 tries. She’s drawn outside but has good speed to land some tactical position early on and is 3 for 3 over this turf course. However, at short odds she’s probably worth a bet against from this outside break.