Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Famous Star (Race #2)
Race #1: 7-Chicago Soldier (Ire) makes 3rd start stateside and third effort off the extended layoff for trainer Mark Glatt. This colt goes two routes to a sprint this afternoon and makes first start in for a tag. He merits a strong chance here if he can reproduce his turf Beyer number (73) from DMR 5th place finish two-back. 6-New York Dreams (Ire) also cuts back to a sprint today and improved to finish 4th when dropped down to this $50K level in most recent start September 30. The gelding adds blinkers today and is projected to be forwardly placed. 3-Midnight Majesty showed speed and faded when attempting to route just 8 days ago and now returns to a sprint where he finished 3rd two-back for these winning connections.
Race #2: 2-Famous Star has speed and comes off a 3-month freshening for trainer John Sadler. The 3-year-old colt by Frosted drops in for a claiming tag for the first time and this barn is a solid 8 for 23 (35%) with a $2.63 ROI with MDSW to MDCLM dropdowns. First time gelding 6-Honeymoon Suite adds blinkers and drops in for a tag today after flashing speed in all 4 career starts. He moves back to dirt today for Mullins. 3-Apfel goes turf to dirt and the blinkers come off for career start number two after a non-threatening 9th in Del Mar debut try September 5 when a bit rank and wide. This gelding is by multiple G1 winner Carpe Diem who gets 16% with his dirt sprint prodigy and the Miller barn has above average numbers with today’s substantial class plunge.
Race #3: The much-improved filly 3-Bizzy Gal has only one prior turf start but has won two straight over the main track for Miller and looks poised and ready to challenge the boys moving back to grass. Team O’Neill has a pair of juveniles represented here. 4-Mister Beams makes his southern California unveiling for his new connections coming off one Maiden victory over the synthetic footing at Gulfstream back on September 3. His sire is 0 for 18 with turf sprint offspring, but recent 5-furlong score indicates the short game is perhaps what he wants to do. Beam’s stablemate 1-Marks Hip goes from the Golden Gate Tapeta to the turf today after pressing and fading when making first start against winners. He has enough early zip to get away cleanly from the rail.
Race #4: Team O’Neill has another two-pronged attack in this Maiden $32,000 claiming sprint. 5-Hialeah Hottie comes off an improved runner-up finish when making her southern California debut October 15 and is the one to beat off that (56) Beyer speed figure. She came back to drill a nice 4 furlongs in :47.1 last Wednesday. Her stablemate 3-Forest Acclamation showed brief speed and tired in last, but that event has emerged as a super key race on September 22 producing 4 next-out winners. 6-Short Journey didn’t show much in debut try but is eligible to improve in start number two in weak race.
Race #5: 3-Nice Guy Clay makes second start over this Santa Anita main track and gets top billing off recent best last-out (78) Beyer speed figure. The gelding shortens up to 5 ½ furlongs today which was the distance of his Maiden breaking Los Al debut score back in June. Trainer Peter Miller has a pair of geldings going to post in here. 5-Liberty Forever has won 2 of his last 3 on grass but has been just as competitive on dirt while sprinting. His stablemate 10-I Know Cash Flow has good gate speed; is drawn outside and comes in with an improving Beyer pattern. The gelding gets in light again with 7 lb. apprentice Abdul Alsagoor aboard. 8-Exceed Speed Limit comes off strong 8/1 turf win against better and barn has above average numbers going dirt to turf.
Race #6: 4-Gypsy King makes 3rd start off the bench for D’Amato and comes off a solid 3rd place wide finish in most recent effort. The 4-year-old should show more early foot on the stretch-out and finished ahead of 3 of these same geldings on October 8. He’ll likely be the better price of his stablemate first time gelding 3-Earls Rock (Ire) who returns off a 7-month freshening and decent work tab. The stakes winner has won half his starts and drops out of the G3 Transylvania at Keeneland when last seen. 6-Rip City goes first off the claim for trainer Doug O’Neill; is a multiple winner over the track and distance and this jockey/trainer combo are 2 for 2 with new barn acquisitions. 7-Zoffarelli (Ire) makes 3rd start off the mini-freshening and comes in with an improving Beyer pattern.
Race #7: 5-Vinny the Coin showed decent early zip in debut try chasing wire-to-wire Maiden winner and is likely to move forward off that encouraging effort. He sprints again today but might be better down the road stretching out. He’s by multiple G1 winner Accelerate. 6-Mobe Town goes turf to dirt; makes the all-important 3rd career start and drops in for a tag for trainer George Papaprodromou. This barn is a strong 4 for 10 (40%) with a $4.62 ROI with MDSW to MDCLM dirt dropdowns at Santa Anita. 2-Crowning Gold is a logical fit dropping from $80k to $50,000k tag and coming off field’s best (61) dirt Beyer.
Race #8: 4-Creative Peak has won 2 of his last 3 and was a 14/1 upset winner in last when making grass debut finishing in front of two next-out winners. He shows 3 sharp a.m. drills since that victory. 12-Gregory’s Pride will have to negotiate the outside draw but exits a September 10 race that’s produced 4 next-out winners. The gelding owns the best late TimeformUS pace figure (112) in the field and has 9 underneath finishes from 12 starts. He’s perhaps a little untrustworthy on the win end but usually closes well for a piece. 6-Tulsa Tornado hasn’t been out in almost a year, but barn has good enough numbers with returnees and this colt has run some grass Beyers that are competitive with these.
Race #9: 9-Back Ring Lady has not had much success at Santa Anita but has good early zip and comes off a sharp off the grass win down at Del Mar where he was plucked for $25,000. Trainer Steve Knapp is a solid 12 for 38 (32%) with a $3.66 ROI with new barn purchases and the gelding gets in light this afternoon. He might be able to shake free today and repeat. 2-Doc Adams has run par or better on multiple occasions and comes off a sharp win over a next-out winner. 3-Direct Line comes off a career best Beyer (94) with 18/1 upset at Del Mar back in July and has had plenty of time to recover from that taxing effort. The gelding, however, has yet to string two back-to-back decent races together so some skepticism lingers as to whether he can run back to that number.
Race #10: The speedy 3-Cocktail Princess is 5 for 5 ITM and comes off runner-up finish in turf debut where she earned a field’s best (61) Beyer. She’ll be tough on the front end. 5-Nyvan was well bet in Horseshoe Indianapolis debut try when settling for second and has trained well locally for first southern California start for Reddam Racing & Team O’Neill. 8-Moorea Time exits an August 28 debut turf try that’s produced a pair of next-out winners. There’s a chance she’ll move forward off that effort but sire Gormley is only 1 for 34 with sprint grass offspring. D’Amato has a pair of juvenile first-time starters (2-Carole Lombard & 7-Turn of Foot) in the nightcap. He’s only 3 for 29 (10%) with filly grass debut runners at Santa Anita but is hard to throw off your tickets if you’re in spread mode.