Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Gallovie (Race #6)
Race #1: 3-Shes’a Perfectlady has been freshened for Sadler off two straight grass sprint wins and this barn does well with these layoff types. Her closing style fits well today despite extended layoff. 4-Bowl of Cherries moves up in class seeking 3rd straight win for trainer Ron Ellis. 2-Suite Madam Blue nearly pulled off the upset when run down at 16/1 and in doing so earned the field’s best last our grass Beyer. A projected pressured pace, however, could hinder her chances today.
Race #2: 3-Balladeer blinkers off today and makes the all-important 3rd career start. The 3-year-old colt trained by Richard Baltas returns to the main track for a tag. A much-improved 5-furlong bullet drill on March 11 indicates the son of Distorted Humor may have more to offer. 2-Happy Runner goes two sprints to a route; turf to dirt and drops in for a $150k tag today. Three consecutive runner-up tries for 1-American Admiral above par for this level and 1st start for a tag makes this 4-year-old gelding an obvious choice today.
Race #3: Beaten favorite 4-Sweet California deserves another chance today making career start number three coming off and encouraging runner-up try on February 18 against several of these. The 3-year-old filly gets in light with hot apprentice and could shake loose today. 7-Sweet Duck goes turf to dirt; adds blinkers and drops into claimers today for start number two. All favorable reasons to expect some improvement for trainer Ed Freeman. 3-Warren’s Queen Bee has run competitive races for this level and makes 3rd start off the bench today.
Race #4: 5-Rosie Forecast was a sharp 2nd in debut behind Increase Stakes who came back to win again with a (76) Beyer. 7-Kitten’s Kid has been close with 6 ITM finishes from 7 career starts and is reunited with Prat. The turn back to 6 furlongs could finally get her the Maiden victory. She’s hard to back with much confidence, however, at a likely short price. 2-Current Mood is by multiple G1 winner Flintshire and the Drysdale barn scored with turf firster Tofino Bay at 35/1 on Feb 26. A sharp blowout drill for this March 16.
Race #5: 1-Phantom Dance drops in class; draws well and projects to get a favorable ground-saving closing trip for D’Amato. The 5-year-old gelding loves this track and today’s 1 mile trip. 5-Mongolian Wind goes first off the claim for trainer Richard Baltas who has good numbers with newly acquired purchases. Today’s projected quick pace suits his running style. 3-Fore Lift just missed at 7/1 when making first start for good claiming barn.
Race #6: The speedy 5-Gallovie lost all chance in last with troubled start and now makes 2nd start off the layoff for Baltas. She stretches out today and is a strong wire-to-wire threat with an alert break. 2-Jimmyssmokedacarrot moves inside and has improved with each sequential start since November of last year. 7-Agreetodisagree was a disappointing beaten favorite in last pair but fits well here and Prat has the return mount. A factor if she can work out a favorable trip.
Race #7: 1-Back Ring Luck is back down from Golden Gate off two consecutive wins and has the speed and rail. He loves this mile trip and barn is 4 for 9 (44%) with a $4.80 ROI with new claims. 9-Dance Some Mo has been freshened for new barn that’s 4 for 8 (50%) with a $4.02 ROI with horses making their initial start for new outfit off an extended layoff with Prat onboard. 7-Motown Music adds blinkers; makes 3rd start off the bench and has run consistently well Beyer-wise for this level.
Race #8: 5-Sensible Cat owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (84) with a sharp last win over next-out winner Royal Address. The undefeated 2-Becca Taylor seeks 7th career victory and has proven she can handle multiple surfaces. She faces stern test today, however, meeting some fillies and mares who have posted solid turf numbers. 6-Eddies New Dream has proven she can run well off the freshening and has very competitive turf figures.
Race #9: 5-Exultation stretches out today and makes 3rd start off the bench for trainer Peter Eurton. The veteran 7-year-old gelding comes out of two tough races and projects to be on or close to the lead in a race that traditionally favors front-runners. 12-Keystone Field must negotiate a tough outside post but is super game and consistent for trainer Richard Mandella. The 0 for 4 record at the distance, however, is a concern. It’s a tough spot to take too short of a price. 8-Move Over moves up in class but has won last 2 of last 3 at today’s trip.