Santa Anita (Saturday-5/7/2022)

Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner

BEST BET: 4-Take Action (Race #1)

Race #1: 4-Take Action is a 3-year-old gelding by G1 winner More Than Ready who was off slow and never in contention in March 20 debut. He now returns for a claiming tag in start number two for trainer Richard Mandella. This conditioner is a strong 4 for 5 (80%) with a lofty $5.32 ROI with these types of class droppers with 2nd time starters. A BIG improvement is likely. 2-Sai Con is making career start number eight but has good speed; has run par for this level; and this jockey/trainer combo won with runaway maiden filly Bicameral April 15. 10-Quintecents has not been out since last fall when finishing a non-threating 6th in debut at Los Alamitos but returns to today as a gelding with Lasix on the class drop. He’s worked well for return and barn is 3 for 7 (43%) with a $3.35 ROI with MDSW to MDCLM class droppers coming off >180 days’ rest.

Selections: 4-2-10

Race #2: 1-Dance to the Music was 2nd in the G2 Del Mar Debutante last fall. This filly adds Lasix today off the extended layoff; has speed and draws the rail on the cutback. 5-Lady Aces also returns off an extended break and is graded stakes placed for trainer Peter Eurton. A sharp 4-furlong “best of 61” gate drill May 2 indicates she’s ready to fire off the bench. 2-Smitten by Kitten should appreciate the move back to the main track.

Selections: 1-5-2

Race #3: 2-Exultation cuts back to his preferred distance and projects to get a favorable trip from off the pace this afternoon for trainer Peter Eurton. 10-Crash Corrigan was a sharp winner at this trip two-back. 8-Barristan The Bold has won 3 of her last 4 sprinting on the grass but may not be as effective going 6 furlongs.

Selections: 2-10-8

Race #4: 5-Machtenhaironfire has speed; adds blinkers and has improved with each start. This 4-year-old filly could shake loose in here for top barn. 6-Warren’s Show Biz owns the field’s best last-out Beyer (62) and this is her second start at the reduced $20k claiming level. 3-Tequila Tigre showed little in debut with slow start but could wake up in here on the class drop and an alert break.

Selections: 5-6-3

Race #5: 1-Lucky Girl is a multiple winner over the track and distance and projects to get an ideal ground-saving journey from the rail. 3-Island of Love comes off the mini-freshening for top turf barn and attracts Hernandez. 2-Sterling Crest is consistent as they come for trainer Richard Baltas and owns the field’s best last-out Beyer.

Selections: 1-3-2

Race #6: The speedy 2-Busy Paynter seeks third straight and drops back down to $12,500 claiming level from two-back. This 6-year-old mare is 5 for 10 at Santa Anita and the logical choice in here. 4-Take a Leap goes route to sprint off the claim and should be closing stoutly in the stretch. 6-Flat Out Joy also goes sprint to route off sharp score against better.

Selections: 2-4-6

Race #7: 11-Snark stretches out for the first time off four consecutive runner-up finishes for trainer Eric Kruijak. Her sire Carpe Diem was a multiple G1 winner going long, so perhaps this gal grabs the lead from her outside post and never looks back to finally break through the Maiden ranks. Beaten favorite 1-Vivando makes the all-important 3rd career start for Sadler and gets key jockey change. 2-Carroll Girl a logical fit running par or close to it for this level in last three turf route tries.

Selections: 11-1-2

Race #8: 3-Pioneering Papa makes start number three after two decent tries against solid Maiden Special Weight fields and could find himself as the pacesetter in this group. His (83) Beyer in debut was a third-place finish behind G1 Santa Anita Derby winner and Derby hopeful Taiba. 7-Hero Status had a wide trip in uneventful debut April 16 as the beaten favorite and should move forward off that try stretching out to 7 panels. A strong “best of 76” 4-furlong drill since debut adds to the appeal. 4-Virat has trained well for Baltas and is by multiple G1 winner Bayern who gets a solid 22% with 3-year-old and up debut starters.

Selections: 3-7-4

Race #9: 3-Connie Swingle has speed; adds Lasix and makes her turf debut for D’Amato off a solid 2nd place finish April 9. This talented lightly raced filly has two wins and two seconds from 4 career starts and bred to handle the surface switch. Recent Maiden winner 8-Countess Rosina made her U.S. unveiling a winning one despite bad start and in doing so owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (74). 1-Graceland Gray projects to trip out well from the rail and was finishing strongly in most recent start at this level when coming up only a length short.

Selections: 3-8-1

Race #10: 1-Nerves of Steel may not be completely comfortable getting an 1/8 of a mile more but moves all the way inside today and has historically run very well over this turf course (7-2-3-1). Recent Maiden winner 11-Shadow Sphinx was a decent 4th in return effort and is eligible to move forward off that 4th place finish for trainer Kristen Mulhall. The veteran 7-year–old gelding is a 9-time winner and gets some class relief this afternoon. The lively race flow should help his chances. 3-Big Talker moves up in class off recent score but projects to get another favorable set-up.

Selections: 1-11-3

Leave a Reply

More from this show