Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Pura Vida Princess (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 1-2-4
1-Get Soul returns to routing on turf, where he registered both of his two career wins for trainer Andy Mathis. This 4-year-old colt has enough speed from the rail to get good early position, and figures to improve significantly, second off the bench with the surface switch. 2-Pacific Quest has proven to be more effective going longer than today’s one-mile trip on grass, but returns off the mini-freshening, drops in class, and posted above par (83 Beyer) for this class level with the Del Mar victory two back. 4-Cathal (Ire) is winless since September 2024, but takes a well-needed class drop today, and has run grass route Beyers that match up well for a solid jockey-trainer combo.
Race #2: Selections: 1-3-4
1-Babe Ruthless goes turf to dirt on the class drop for conditioner Dan Blacker, who sports a solid 30%-win clip and $2.85 ROI overall (over the past five years) with MDSW to MDCLM dropdowns. This 4-year-old gelded son of Candy Ride posted a (73) dirt debut Beyer two-back, which would be plenty fast enough to defeat this suspect group. Turf to dirt 3-Irish Element has only hit the board once in nine career tries for Team O’Neill, but drops in for a first-time tag today, second off the bench. 4-Love Da Gig was beaten by double digits in both starts, but stretches out this afternoon, and figures to be on the lead today, making his second try at this reduced level. The gelding’s pedigree suggests that routing may not be his forte, however.
Race #3: Selections: 2-3-4
2-Flashy Fritz was overmatched in the King Glorious S. at Los Al on Dec. 14, but drops back down to a more appropriate level as a first-time gelding on the turnback. The Stay Thirsty gelding adds Lasix today, and figures to be hustled along by Maldonado. 3-A. P. Again exits back-to-back fourth-place finishes against considerably better and now slashes his claiming tag from $50k to today’s $20,000 level. This barn is 14-for-54 (31%) with a positive ROI over the past five years, with 50% class drops in dirt sprints. O’Neill and Jaramillo are 7 for 19 (37%) with a lofty $5.42 ROI when teamed up over the past year. A Maiden winner three-back, 4-Very Quiet drops in class for trainer Peter Miller, exiting a wide trip fourth on Dec. 6.
Race #4: Selections: 4-2-3
Turf to dirt 4-Syntax has run well in both career tries for trainer Ed Freeman, switches to Kimura today, and should be all set for a lifetime-best in start number three. The Pavel filly is projected to be on or close to the lead this afternoon. 2-All in the Game switches back to the main track, exiting a better-than-looks troubled trip seventh on the grass Jan. 11. The Grazen filly makes the third start of the form cycle, retains Hernandez, and can improve. 3-Joyful Mischief makes career start number 15 today, but has finished underneath seven times and figures to make her customary late run for the low-profile barn.
Race #5: Selections: 1-4-2
The Doug O’Neil-trained 1-Pura Vida Princess has had several chances and up-close finishes, but may have finally found a MDSW field she can handle. The 4-year-old filly holds a double turf Beyer advantage. She has speed from the rail and has trained sharply over the SA synthetic track since that last third-place effort on Nov. 8. That event has produced a pair of next-out winners. 4-Lubie’s Music goes dirt to turf on the stretch-out for a lucrative jockey-trainer combo off a pair of promising career efforts. 2-Robin With a Why goes two sprints to a route for trainer Jeff Mullins, making her second try off the six-month layoff. She finished a troubled trip fourth (beaten a length) in her most recent effort, but her pedigree does not necessarily suggest routing will move her forward—mixed feelings.
Race #6: Selections: 4-2-8
4-Subtle Knowledge finished behind Tom’s Star in her Dec. 13 debut but is likely to improve substantially in start number two for Mullins. This jockey-trainer combo scored with second-time dirt sprint starter Dakota’s Shadow (6-1) on Jan. 9, and I’m hoping for a similar scenario to play out here. 2-Tom’s Star makes career start number 13 and is impossible to back with much confidence, but the 5-year-old mare has finished second five times (when you combine her Los Al evening tries), and she has certainly run fast enough Beyer-wise to win this weak sprint. 8-Play for Me is by Great Stuff, who is 0-for-12 with his prodigy, but the 4-year-old filly draws a cozy outside post and has trained sharply in the a.m., including a blowout three-furlong bullet in :36.1 on Jan. 19.
Race #7: Selections: 3-2-7
The Grade 3-winning 3-Hey Nay Nay (Ire) shortens up this afternoon for his first try over the downhill layout for Sadler, exiting as an odds-on beaten favorite, troubled-trip third in the Cecil B. Demille (G3) on Nov. 30. The sophomore colt is reunited with winning pilot Hector Berrios this afternoon and figures to fall into a favorable upfront-pressing journey. 2-Greenwich Village switches to grass in career try number three for Team Baffert and has plenty of turf pedigree (especially on the dam side) to handle the surface switch successfully. Blinkers come off today on the quick turnaround, and this daughter of Quality Road fired a solid five furlongs in :59.4 over the synthetic track prior to that last subpar effort in the G2 San Vicente. The stakes-winning 7-Later Than Planned (Ire) has been freshened since his sixth-place closing finish in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) for D’Amato and looks well-spotted for a bounce-back effort, facing softer. The colt owns the best late pace figure in the field and figures to motor home late.
Race #8: Selections: 8-5-2
8-Left Hand Man co-tops the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (83) and rallied for the place spot over a trio of returning rivals on Dec. 29. The 6-year-old gelding should get another live race flow to close into for Miller and Rispoli. The lightly raced 5-Team Player has hit the board in all three career starts and finished third behind the top choice in the aforementioned Dec. 29 event. 2-Berlin Wall goes turf to dirt on the stretch-out and has hit the board in five of seven career tries for Knapp. The 4-year-old son of Practical Joke may find today’s one-mile journey a nice fit.
Race #9: Selections: 5-4-3
A tricky grass Maiden Special Weight route for sophomore colts and geldings closes out the Sunday afternoon card, offering several directions one can take. 5-Essos makes the all-important third career try for trainer Mark Glatt and second turf attempt. The Liam’s Map colt finished an improved fourth on Dec. 29 when switched to turf, facing several of these, and adds blinkers and Lasix this afternoon. The sophomore fired a “best of 72” bullet five furlongs in :59 flat on Jan. 18 and looks to be coming into this in excellent form. The meet’s leading rider, Umberto Rispoli, taking over the riding assignment, adds to the appeal. 4-Army Man has flashed good speed in her last pair of grass route tries, removes the blinkers today, and adds Lasix. The gelding draws better today. 3-Charlie’s Curlin is slowly improving for Mullins. The son of Curlin makes his third start of the form cycle today, exiting an even third when facing several of these in the aforementioned Dec. 29 event. Berrio sticks.
