Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Sammy Davis (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 8-1-4
The Powell-trained 8-Blame Eve improved substantially when moved to the main track and dropped to this level on Feb. 8, when finishing in front of a trio of today’s returning rivals. The 4-year-old daughter of Blame sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (69) and should prove tough with a similar effort. 1-Vronaway flashed speed and tired to a well-beaten fifth behind the top choice in last, but is capable of a rebound effort, having finished second both two and three back. 4-Ghostess goes turf to dirt on the class plunge for trainer Tim Yakteen while making her third start of the form cycle. Improvement likely.
Race #2: Selections: 2-3-1
Two sprints to a route, 2-Counterbalance steps up in class off a sharp recent maiden score on Jan. 31 for conditioner Michael McCarthy, where she posted a field’s best last-out grass Beyer (76). The Caravaggio sophomore filly looks well-spotted this afternoon and can repeat, despite facing winners for the first time. 3-Himika successfully took to the grass with a sharp closing second over the downhill course in the Feb. 7 Sweet Life S. and should relish the additional real estate on today’s stretch out to a mile. 1-Yours Sincerely (Ire) steps back up to face stakes competition off a solid allowance optional claiming score on Jan. 11. The 3-year-old filly has already proven she can handle the one-mile trip.
Race #3: Selections: 8-4-2
8-Christa McAuliffe goes turf to dirt for the all-important third career try after flashing improved speed in her last, and was a troubled trip fifth in her main track debut. The Grazen filly appears set for a top effort today for conditioner Steve Miyadi. 4-Another Zero (by I’ll Have Another) ran on well for the runner-up spot in an encouraging unveiling on Jan. 30, posting a respectable (64) dirt Beyer. The 3-year-old filly figures to be tough in start number two, with any normal second-out progression. However, this barn is only 1 for 56 (2%) in the past five years with second-time starters, which is some reason for pause. 2-La Silenciosa debuts for trainer Victor Garcia off a steady work tab. Her sire, Known Agenda (a son of Curlin), is 5-1-2-0 with 3-year-old & up debut runners from a limited sample.
Race #4: Selections: 7-2-6
The stakes-winning 7-Incanto (Ire) returns to Southern California, dropping out of the Gulfstream Park Sprint S. The 4-year-old gelding makes his third start of the form cycle today, stretching out from five panels to 6 ½ furlongs, and is a big threat if he can run back to that (93) turf figure earned two back. Blinkers on 2-Smart Code has hit the board in his last five turf starts and makes his second start off the bench today for trainer Mark Glatt. The 6-year-old gelding is projected to get another favorable, upfront-pressing trip. 6-Spearfish just missed in a blanket finish on Feb. 6 from a tough spot between runners.
Race #5: Selections: 2-9-6
2-Scatify takes a huge class drop today for Mullins after a disappointing last-place effort back on Dec. 29. The 5-year-old has obviously seen better days, but deserves respect at this career-low claiming level while likely trying to wire this field with Baze. Claimed out of his last pair, 9-No More Ding Dongs was a wide trip fourth when facing Magic Connection and Novinophobia on Feb. 7 and now makes his first start for conditioner Jorge Farias, who has above-average stats with new acquisitions. The gelding ran second to two next-out winners on Dec. 13 and Jan. 10. 6-Magic Connection rallied for the place spot versus similar in his most recent sprint try for trainer Hector Palma.
Race #6: Selections: 5-1-7
The lightly raced 5-Voldemort has hit the board in four of five career tries for Team Baffert, and exits a career-best Beyer (92) on Feb. 8 with a second-place finish in a short field. The 4-year-old colt figures to be on or close to the lead this afternoon. 1-Big Bet Jafinsafa has run well in both starts since moving back to the main track, finishing behind the top choice in last. The 7-year-old gelding is a multiple winner over the track and distance. The Tim Yakteen-trained 7-Cowboy Mike flashed speed and tired to finish fourth off the six-month freshening behind the top pair and can improve second off the bench. The 6-year-old gelding shortens up to a mile, where he’s a 4-time winner.
Race #7: Selections: 3-1-8
Dirt to turf 3-Sammy Davis has finished first or second in four of five lifetime tries for trainer John Sadler and should relish today’s surface switch and turnback in distance. The talented 3-year-old gelding is by Sir Prancealot, who has a 16% strike rate with grass sprinters. Lasix on. 1-Caro Buono (Fr) drops out of five straight stake events into this softer spot today for trainer Leonard Powell, while making his second try off the bench. The 3-year-old colt adds Lasix today, exiting a close-up fourth in the Pasadena S. and sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (80). Grass milers have traditionally done well switching to the shorter downhill layout. 8-Honey’s Choice steps up off an impressive 2 ¼-length six-furlong turf maiden win on Jan. 18 for D’Amato and has worked five times since that solid score. A repeat is certainly well within reach.
Race #8: Selections: 5-6-3
5-Forced Entry (by multiple G1 winner Charlatan) stretched out successfully in career try number two with a dominating 7 ¼-length win for Baffert and looks well-placed for her stakes debut. The sophomore filly will likely face other speed today, however. Hernandez sticks. Not ready to give up on Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner 6-Super Corredora, who was a disappointing fourth in the Las Virgenes a month ago, when finishing behind recent Honeybee (G3) winner Explora. The Gun Runner filly worked sharply on March 1 and is a legitimate rebound candidate. Baffert’s other filly, 3-French Blue, did not register a flashy Beyer (67) with her well-backed maiden-breaking sprint score on Jan. 8, but is by Gun Runner, and should relish the additional real estate today. She could improve quickly, as evidenced by her consistent fast a.m. drills, including a sharp five-furlong work on March 1.
Race #9: Selections: 7-6-1
7-Victorious Dream (Ire) (by multiple Group 1 winner Ghaiyyath) rallied for the place spot in her second Stateside try for McCarthy and should be all set for a top try this afternoon, second off the bench. Hernandez jumps in the saddle today, which is an encouraging sign. A beaten favorite in the last three tries, 6-Bint Al Dandy (Ire) has had several close finishes (8-0-5-2) without breaking through for Falcone and now stretches back out today. The 5-year-old mare is a logical fit again, but impossible to back on the win-end at short odds. 1-Sandy Street (by Street Sense) goes two sprints to a route today for a lucrative jockey-trainer combo and figures to get a favorable ground-saving journey.
