Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Deise Delight (Ire) (Race #3)
Race #1: 4-Phenom changed her racing tactics in most recent start which resulted in a runner-up finish from off the pace while returning off a 7-month freshening. Any improvement while making 2nd start off the bench will make her tough in this spot for D’Amato. 6-Saddje Up Jessie returns off a 11-month layoff with Lasix for new conditioner. This barn has had success with new acquisitions and returnees. 2-Infinite Empire moves back to turf which produced her best career effort two-back when finishing a closing 4th earning a (70) Beyer speed figure while going long. Her sire Empire Maker gets 12% with grass sprint runners.
Race #2: 5-Let Him Do was a beaten favorite 3rd when facing winners for the first time in most recent effort back in August and now makes 2nd start off the Sadler claim. This lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 4 for 7 (57%) with a $4.23 ROI at Santa Anita with this claiming angle. The juvenile colt projects to get a favorable stalking trip behind the speed. 2-Littlebrotherjoey was a game Maiden winner in last going gate to wire while hounded most of the trip for trainer Dan Blacker. 1-Warrens World has trained steadily the last couple months after dominating Del Mar Maiden score at 10/1. The colt switches to hot rider.
Race #3: 1-Deise Delight (Ire) has been freshened for 2 months after back-to-back beaten favorite runner-up finishes against slightly better. The 5-year-old mare has the rail; good early zip and has run above par for this class level in last several efforts. Rispoli had 3 winners on Saturday. 5-Frazzled returns off a year layoff for new trainer Leonard Powell but has trained smartly for return and is reunited with winning pilot Juan Hernandez. This conditioner has above average numbers with long layoff returnees and newly acquired stock. 3-Sweet Talked moves back to her preferred surface today and drops in class for trainer Peter Miller.
Race #4: 1-Kitten Calls makes second start at the $20K bottom Maiden Claiming level after finishing 2nd here just 2 weeks ago for trainer Tim Yakteen. The filly owns the field’s best last out Beyer (64); moves inside this afternoon and has an additional sixteenth of a mile to navigate. 7-Baby’s Dream goes turf to dirt; makes 2nd start off the extended layoff and drops from $50k to $20k purchase price for Powell. Her sire multiple G1 winner Declaration of War was known for his turf prowess but does get a decent 17% with dirt route runners. 3-Sweet Heidelberg finished 3rd at this level in most recent start behind next-out winning filly Charlotte Harbor who came back to Beyer a (74).
Race #5: 3-Big Beauty comes off a career best grass Beyer (80) with runner-up finish in most recent effort on October 7 and loves this turf course (5-1-3-0) for Sadler. The 4-year-old filly should be set for top effort this afternoon making 3rd start off the bench. 5-Taming the Tigress goes dirt to turf for trainer Peter Miller after being moved up to 4th via disqualification when forced to check and impeded back in September. The filly was a voided claim in last; but drops back down to the reduced level where she’s done some of her best running in prior starts. 6-Everlys Girl only prior turf start was not good but comes off a sharp wire-to-wire score over the main track here October 15 and her sire Shaman Ghost does get a decent 18% with his grass sprint runners. So, perhaps she deserves another chance on turf and she’ll likely be on or close to the lead this afternoon.
Race #6: Trainer Bob Baffert has three juvenile colts entered here and they all have the barn’s typical flashy worktab. Of the trio, we’ll try 2-Texthelegend by triple Crown winner Justify who is a strong 11 for 40 (27%) with his 2-year-old first time starter prodigy. 7-Mr. Fisk is by multiple G1 winner Arrogate. This jockey/trainer combo are 17 for 43 (40%) with FTS’s at Santa Anita the past 5 years. 4-Johanes is the lone starter in the field with prior racing experience after well-bet disappointing 10th place finish at Churchill back in June. In his defense, the son of Nyquist did have some trouble in his unveiling and has since trained well for his Southern California debut for new conditioner. Baffert’s third entrant 1-Fort Warren is a $550K Keeneland purchase by Curlin. The juvenile colt must negotiate the tricky rail draw.
Race #7: In a race that’s projected to be run rather swiftly early on according to TimeformUS things should set-up nicely for 4-Invincibella (GB) who goes 2nd off the claim today for trainer Steve Knapp. The 6-year-old mare goes dirt to turf on the cutback in distance and owns the field’s best late pace figure. 8-Trickle In has good tactical early foot and has run par or better for this class level on multiple occasions. This mare has run well off the layoff and gets in light this afternoon. 9-Gallovie (GB) comes off a sharp runner-up finish; co-tops the field’s best last out grass Beyer (77) and now makes first start off the claim for Kristen Mulhall. This barn clicks close to 30% with new acquisitions at Santa Anita– but to be fair– most of that success has come on dirt.
Race #8: This N2L low level claimer looks like a wild scramble on paper which could produce some juicy prices if you can find the right gelding. 7-Sayers backed up in most recent try against winners but is lightly raced and shortens up to 5 ½ furlongs today. This 3-year-old gelding looks like the speed of the speed and gets in light again this afternoon with 7 lb. apprentice. 5-Fireman Dan is one of several exiting the same October 9 event. He may have been best after slow start and late traffic issues while coming up only a neck short when finally splitting horses late and showing good late foot. 6-So I’m Told gets the complete makeover today for trainer Eddie Freeman. The gelding adds blinkers; goes turf to dirt; cuts back to a sprint and takes a significant class plunge. A form reversal and major improvement not out of the question.
Race #9: 7-Shes’a Perfectlady is a multiple winner over this turf course and 2 for 2 going 6 furlongs. The 5-year-old mare gets some class relief today for Sadler and makes 3rd start off the layoff. 1-Tom’s Beauty is lightly raced; co-tops the field’s best last-out grass Beyer; goes 2nd time Lasix and projects to sit a favorable ground-saving journey. The speedy 3-Baby Steps goes dirt to turf and figures to take these as far as she can on the engine for Maldonado. The filly has yet to win past 5 furlongs, however.
Race #10: 7-Smoothlikebuttah is only 2 for 33 lifetime but cuts back to a mile and owns the field’s best late pace figure in a race that projects to favor closers. 1-Angel Nadeshiko has run back-to-back 81 Beyer numbers which is on par for this class level. The 3-year-old filly finished behind top pick in most recent effort when facing winners for the first time and has shown some versatility when it comes to running style. 3-With This Vow was a recent winner on grass at Golden Gate but has been just as effective on dirt. The 5-year-old mare goes 2nd off the claim today and ran well over this course last winter