Santa Anita (Sunday-3/13/22)

Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner

BEST BET: 8-Thrive (Race #5)

Race #1: 3-Edgeway has good gate speed; is 6 for 10 lifetime and shows a “best of 57” 5-furlong drill in preparation for today’s stake sprint. G2 winner 1-Private Mission has trained sharply for 2022 unveiling and has run well fresh in the past for Team Baffert. The 4-year-old filly is 3 for 4 at Santa Anita. 4-Dynasty of Her Own goes turf to dirt and was competitive with some of the best sprinters up at Golden Gate. Must avoid pace duel.

Selections: 3-1-4

Race #2: 4-Fort Bridger outrun against better the 3-year-old gelding drops in class today with hot apprentice and should be today’s frontrunner. He earned a competitive figure with Maiden score two-back. 3-Allaboutthemoney has been freshened since breaking Maiden in start number 8 last September at Del Mar and shows a steady work pattern for 2022 unveiling. Trainer Vldamir Cerin does well with these layoff types. 1-Too Late is 1 for 16 but has run some races that could crush these if he could somehow regain his old form.

Selections: 4-3-1

Race #3: 2-Street Art goes 2nd off the claim for trainer Ruben Alvarado and moves back to grass. 5-Arrabiata goes 2nd time Lasix and earned a (70) turf Beyer in most recent 3rd place effort. That’s fairly substantial since several of these are unknown or yet proven successful running on grass. 4-Town Boy returns to turf and adds Lasix.

Selections: 2-5-4

Race #4: 3-Tayet goes turf to dirt and broke her Maiden over the main track at Churchill. 5-Smoothlikebuttah is 1 for 25 but will be running on late and has hit the ticket in half of those career starts. 4-Win This Vow has speed and stretches out for barn that’s been firing on all cylinders. I’m not, however convinced this mare wants to go this far.

Selections: 3-5-4

Race #5: 8-Thrive has good speed and goes turf to dirt dropping into Claimers for the first time for trainer Michael McCarthy. This barn is 6 for 19 (32%) with a $4.50 ROI with this dropdown maneuver on dirt. 5-Sync is lightly raced and was a decent 2nd at this level two-back. 4-Big Event hasn’t shown much as of yet but drops again; stretches out today and adds blinkers looking for a form reversal.

Selections: 8-5-4

Race #6: 2-Big Sweep switches to grass off solid win and looks to hold a significant pace advantage if able to negotiate the turf. Her one attempt over the surface two years ago at Del Mar wasn’t terrible. She faded after a pressured pace. 3-Royal Address was a sharp 2nd off the mini-freshening earning a very competitive turf Beyer (83). This filly appears to be main stretch threat if able to move forward off that top try. 5-Heathers Grey has run well fresh for top barn.

Selections: 2-3-5

Race #7: 6-Smiling Goodbye showed good speed in debut and is the one to beat with any normal 2nd out improvement. 5-Arthur Spooner just missed in most recent effort and is the obvious threat to finally break through this afternoon making career start number nine. 1-Forgotten Vows moves up off encouraging 2nd place effort on February 5 debut. The 3-year-old gelding shares the top Beyer (64) for that strong try. Any normal improvement off debut makes her one to consider despite the class rise.

Selections: 6-5-1

Race #8: 7-Vivando might be better going longer but there’s no denying her troubled trip 2nd in debut was encouraging effort. The other Sadler runner FTS 3-Violent Runner is by top sire Violence off encouraging worktab. 8-Countess Rosina adds Lasix for U.S. unveiling for a barn that does well with these import types. A 3-year-old filly facing some older runners.

Selections: 7-3-8

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