Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Stay In Line (Race 6)
Race #1: 3-Jetovator has been plagued by layoff lines and was run down by rival Southern Horse when last seen back in February when finishing second. The veteran 7-year-old gelding projects to sit a better trip today, however, and can reverse that decision over a turf course he likes. 6-Southern Horse was a disappointing beaten favorite in last start against similar April 8 but returns to the SA main turf course where he’s racked up several wins. 1-Redline comes off an excusable troubled trip sixth place finish in last and now makes second start off the Knapp claim. The colt moves all the way inside to the rail today.
Race #2: 4-Apple Fest arrives on the scene for the Baffert farm with a string of snappy, sharp a.m. drills. This filly is by multiple G1 winner Bolt d’Oro who gets 15% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. Her stablemate 1-Conquistar finished second as the beaten favorite in both local starts and now returns to a sprint where she popped a (83) Beyer in debut. Her recent morning workouts have been swift. 3-Ruby Nell is the logical alternative to the Baffert pair with a pair of seconds in both starts for trainer Richard Mandella. She costs $1.2 million, so expectations were high for this filly.
Race #3: 1-Air Force One is a Grade 2 victor and is back sprinting on the downhill course where he’s a 3-time winner for conditioner Leonard Powell. He gets some class relief today and should be a handful with Hernandez from the rail. 2-Whatmakessammyrun has been facing better and makes second start today off the mini-freshening. He finished behind top pick two-back in the Grade 2 Joe Hernandez. 4-Sunrise Journey moves back to turf having won two straight over the main track and is the projected frontrunner in here. This veteran 8-year-old gelding is an impressive 15 for 44 lifetime and he appears as game as ever for Barocio.
Race #4: 3-Mor Tequila has not been seen since encouraging debut try back in August of last year at Del Mar but has trained steadily for his 2023 unveiling for the Baffert barn. He adds Lasix today and Hernandez retains the mount. 6-Ever a Rebel adds blinkers off a 7-week freshening for the D’Amato camp and has shown ability in all three career starts. The lone 4-year-old 4-Princip goes turf to dirt and has trained well since that last start in February for Mark Glatt.
Race #5: Recent Maiden winner 1-Kiss My Kat has speed; the rail; and makes first start off the Knapp claim. This jockey/trainer combo are 4 for 15 (27%) with a $4.87 ROI with new acquisitions on dirt. The lightly raced 3-Lasting Love goes turf to dirt and takes a significant class plunge this afternoon. She’s reunited with her winning pilot. 5-Silent Beauty is super game and in excellent form right now. The 4-year-old filly has a win and two close second place finishes in last three starts for trainer Peter Eurton and looks appropriately placed once again this afternoon.
Race #6: Class dropping 7-Stay in Line makes first initial try over the main track and appears set to break through the Maiden ranks today for conditioner Jorge Periban. The blinkers come off and barn is a sharp 5 for 14 (36%) with a $2.97 ROI with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dropdowns. 1-Shambala Girl broke slowly in well-bet debut try from the same rail spot essentially losing all chance while spotting the field several lengths. She did, however, recover rather decently to grab the show money. 4-Turquoise Bikini has good speed and moves back to dirt on the turnback. She was a well-beaten second two-back going this trip at this level.
Race #7: A projected quick early pace favors 1-Grenada Flavor who closed for a sharp win at this level in most recent start on March 18 over three of these same rivals. A repeat is well within reach. 6-Papale was a beaten favorite behind top choice in last but now makes second start off the claim for Mulhill. The 5-year-old gelding could potentially trip out nicely behind expected pacesetters while getting first run. 3-Tembo showed little in turf return try but moves back to the main track today; adds blinkers; and takes a big class drop. This barn has solid second off the bench stats.
Race #8: 6-Timely Luck goes two sprints to a route today and will likely show more early zip. Her sire Prospect Park was a graded stakes winner going long on grass. 4-Candy On Top makes career start number 13 this afternoon but did have legitimate traffic issues in last beaten favorite 3rd finish against similar on March 26. She’s running out of excuses, however. 5-Idessia also stretches out for the first time for D’Amato off an even 5th place effort when also faced with some traffic issues. Her running style suggests she’ll like two-turns.
Race #9: This N2L $16,000 claiming route is a bit of a mad scramble. 5-Chicknfingerfriday dominated $30k Maiden claimers going a mile in last with career best Beyer and looks well-spotted for first start against winners. 7-Littlebrotherjoey should be forwardly placed on the stretch-out for trainer Dan Blacker and starts for a career low claiming tag. The beaten favorite 1-Big Swede removes the blinkers today and can move forward making second start off the claim. He gets in light with ten-pound bug aboard. 9-Crypto Money makes second start off the claim for hot barn.
Race #10: First time gelding and first off the claim 5-Cryptoholic stretches back out today for new connections making his 2nd start off the long layoff. Berrios and Mullins have teamed up for several wins together and have three second place finishes from 3 starts with new acquisitions. The speedy 11-Belmont Bill must try and negotiate another eighth of a mile after surrendering the lead in last pair going a mile but gets a weight break today and does own the field’s best last out turf Beyer (79). 8-Russells Hustle has had some mediocre turf route tries but switches to the meet’s leading rider today in the Sunday nightcap and could easily land part of this with the right trip.