Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-King’s Ride (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 5-4-1
5-Motet is 1-for-21 but finished a good second after flashing solid early zip when dropped to this level on Feb. 28, earning the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (70). The 5-year-old mare switches to Kimura this afternoon and has a versatile running style, which should serve her well in this spot. 4-Preem was outrun in her last pair of turf routes, but takes a sizable class plunge today for the Hernandez/McCarthey jockey-trainer combo, and should move forward, second off the bench. 1-Newport Dreamz was third behind Motet in last, but moves further inside today and must be respected off the back-to-back (69) turf Beyers.
Race #2: Selections: 4-3-6
4-Nanci Griffith has proven to be equally effective over dirt and turf for conditioner Steve Miyaadi and exits a hard-fought nose victory when last seen on turf back on Jan. 31. The race prior, the 4-time winning mare just missed, settling for second, in an off-the-turfer. 3-Shared Future was outrun on grass in the last, but returns to her preferred surface today on the class drop and has run some of the swiftest main track figures in this field. The ultra-consistent 6-Lady Rider has won two straight on turf for trainer Vladimir Cerin, and has hit the board in seven of eight career tries. This filly has also proven effective over dirt and retains Hernandez.
Race #3: Selections: 3-2-6-4
The lone 4-year-old in the field, 3-Silent Way, makes the all-important third career try off an improving Beyer pattern, which includes a field best (85) on Feb. 15 behind next-out winner Call Me Cory. The pricey $700k son of McKinzie should prove tough with another potential progressive move forward on the stretch out. Trainer Bob Baffert sends out a pair. 2-Memory (a $775k Keeneland purchase by Uncle Mo) finished a disappointing wide seventh as the tepid 3-1 choice on debut, March 7. He can improve quickly, however, as the go-to jockey-trainer combo is 8-for-15 (53%) with a $3.35 ROI with second-time dirt starters on the stretch-out at Santa Anita the past five years. His stablemate, 6-Authentic Patriot, has flashed speed and tired in his first two starts and figures to have tactical options, drawn outside and going second-time Lasix. 4-Zihnal is a son of Quality Road that fired back-to-back bullet drills over the local footing for conditioner Jonathan Thomas and appears to have solid potential.
Race #4: Selections: 3-1-2-6
3-Tariff finished second in his most recent try on Jan. 23, sandwiched between the streaking Captain Choochies, and next-out winner Geometry, who return here today as well. The 4-year-old colt is a multiple winner over the track and distance and drops from a $50k claimer to today’s $40,000 level. Slight edge in competitive heat. The slow starting multiple Grade 3-winning 1-Packs a Wahlop isn’t what he once was, but takes a sizable claiming slash today for trainer John Sadler. 2-Flying Drummer returns after 755 days’ rest and makes his first start on turf for Baffert. Two major obstacles, but he looks like the speed of the field. 6-None Above the Law has certainly run fast enough Beyer-wise to win this, but the veteran gelding is 0-for-14 over the Santa Anita lawn, and the barn has had a severe case of secondidis all meet.
Race #5: Selections: 2-7-6
The Craig Lewis-trained 2-King’s Ride had a difficult trip with some traffic and shuffling issues in his turf sprint debut on March 7 when rounding out the superfecta, and should be effective today with a better journey, going turf to dirt and moving inside. His sire, Clubhouse Ride, gets a solid 17% with the main-track sprint prodigy, and Hernandez retains the mount. 7-Knowwhere returns off a nine-month layoff today as a first-time gelding after a solid main track five-furlong debut at Los Al last June. The son of Cat Burglar flashed good speed before tiring to third in a well-bet unveiling. He adds Lasix today, is nicely drawn outside, and has worked well. 6-Matt At Five holds the recency and Beyer edge over Knowhere. The sophomore gelding was a good second on debut on March 6, earning a field’s best (62) Beyer for trainer Carla Gaines. This barn is 5-for-22 (23%) with second-time dirt starters.
Race #6: Selections: 4-5-2
Recent maiden winner 4-Charlie’s Curlin earned a competitive (79) winning turf Beyer when winning by 1 ¼ lengths on Feb. 22 and looks well-placed by Mullins for his first crack against winners. He’s worked four times over the synthetic course since that last score. The speedy 5-Army Man drops out of the Pasadena S. into this softer spot today for conditioner Michael McCarthy after a maiden-breaking grass route score two back. The gelding is reunited with his winning pilot, Emisael Jaramillo, today. 2-Court of Appeal was outrun on debut in his lone grass try, but may deserve another chance over the footing, exiting a game main track win on Feb. 24 over a short field at Turf Paradise. This barn has had a stellar meet, clicking close to 40%.
Race #7: Selections: 1-7-3
1-Magic Connection is a logical fit, exiting back-to-back seconds at this level and holding a double Beyer advantage over the rest of this field. The 4-year-old gelding has since returned to fire back-to-back swift four-furlong bullets in the interim. 7-Novinophobia finished third behind the top choice in his last two tries, but makes his third start of the form cycle today off an improving Beyer pattern. The 1-for-26 3-Bolt Supremacy was trounced and eased in his most recent turf route try after flashing speed and then folding badly to a walk. He’s back on dirt today and dropped in for a career-low $10k claiming tag.
Race #8: Selections: 5-2-7
The speedy 5-Bint Al Dandy (Ire) has had several close-up finishes in nine career tries but drops in for a tag today after eight straight attempts at the MDSW level and should prove tough to reel in at this $50k maiden claiming condition. 2-Robin With a Why also drops in for a first-time tag with the addition of blinkers and hasn’t run all that poorly against better for the red-hot Mullins barn. 7-Kitty Marren was a much-improved third in a short field when dropped to this level on Feb. 13, off a nine-month hiatus for trainer Michael McCarthy. The 4-year-old daughter of Munnings returned to work sharply on March 20 over at San Luis Rey with a bullet four furlongs in :47 flat and is likely to move forward this afternoon with Hernandez back for the return mount.
