Show 55: Belmont Oaks and Derby Day

***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***

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Hello, and welcome to the end, the money players podcast, a little bit of a different song up top. It’s been a hybrid show. In fact, our NYRA bet show merging with our in the money show this week, because there’s just so much going on in New York. It seemed like a good week to just focus the main show on what’s going on at this closing weekend at Belmont, before we get to Saratoga.

I’ve got two. Excellent. HorsePlayers going to join me to go over those races. Uh, one of them, I’m going to introduce a little bit early and we’re going to talk a little bit about what’s been going on. I am talking about the man who resides the planet. Texas currently, I believe is in Lexington, Kentucky, Lex Vegas, on his way East, uh, heading up to Saratoga in around about fashion.

The people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen. What’s up my friend. The, uh, the local Uber’s and Saratoga are going to feel the effects of me driving and not Uber. And, uh, so is that everyone, everyone put them in your thoughts and prayers has that news been made public as the stock valuation, uh, dropped with it with the fact that you’re going to actually have a car up in Saratoga this summer, I’m looking forward to it.

It’ll tell folks what you’re going to be doing. We’ve hinted at it. Spies have taken notice, but now it’s official. Yeah. Almost every day, almost every day. I’ll be Saratoga. Live-ing yes. I’m so excited about that almost every day. And, and, uh, uh, the, maybe a couple of days off here and there. I think, I, I think I kind of worked some magic where I could get off for the Del Mar contest, so I can head out West for two days and participate in the Del Mar contest that they have out in San Diego, which I’m excited about.

So a little bit of. Full meat Saratoga with a weekend in Del Mar what’s better than that. Fantastic. I’m envious. And I think my work slash family slash life responsibilities are going to keep me from making any kind of Del Mar trip, but I will be thinking of you all for sure. Uh, our Del Mar listeners and, and who knows.

We may even be producing some Del Mar specific. Content got a little bit of good news on that front waiting for the biggest, good news. I’ll tell you about that off the air. That’s to shop talkie J Qaeda, to bore the listeners with it and not really appropriate at this stage, but we’re working on that.

And you mentioned the Del Mar contest. I’m going to get a quick plugin. We’re going to be talking about this event a bunch, obviously, you know, our primary charity on this show, thoroughbred retirement foundation. Our first partner, we encourage you to go over to trf.org. Uh, did I say it wrong? I did. Didn’t I TRF Inc.

Org slash players and make a donation there, but they’re not the only equine charity in the world. And there’s an equine charity. That is doing something really cool that actually is offering a seat to the Dell market test. You can go and compete against JK. We’re going to have more information about it in the coming shows, but basically LRF cares.

Little red, feather cares is the charity. It’s going to be. A $500 live bank event on July 20th. And I believe they are working on having a way where you can play online. We’re going to get all the details, but that might be a good thing for you to do JK when your way in or when, one of your entries anyway, into the Del Mar contest, or were you just planning on ponying up this year?

No, it was always an opportunity to qualify. Um, I’ve kind of, kind of gotten away a little bit from the $2 wind place. Um, contests, not, not totally on purpose, but kind of on purpose. So I haven’t, uh, I haven’t tried to qualify. I have a plan to try to qualify it and try to maybe try a couple of times, but, uh, yes, definitely this little red feather opportunities is one that would be a good option.

July 20th. Keep your ears to the ground. You’ll be getting more information about that. My summer schedule is still a little bit up in the air. I know that on opening Saturday at Saratoga, I’m going to be doing a seminar. Live at the track. Those may be expanded. We may stick to Saturdays. As in previous years, I’ll get you all the information about where to go and come see us.

And the other wrinkle, if I can work out the technology, that show is going to become our NYRA bet show. So we’ll record live with an audience. Saturday morning, uh, nine 30, nine, nine 30, something like that. Again, I’ll get all the details when it’s finalized and then that show will immediately be uploaded.

So we’ve done it on Periscope in the past with varying results in terms of sound quality and things this time around should be able to listen to it right in your podcast feed. That’s going to be fun. I’m also going to be doing, I don’t know, for lack of a better term, I’m going to call it party promoting with our friends at the post bar, AKA the paddock bar.

If you’re looking for a cool experience, you have the opportunity to either come and hang out on or potentially rent out privately the area formerly known as, as the secret spot, uh, technically called the veranda. And I’ve had a couple of people reach out to me already about wanting to get accommodations up there, booking private parties, et cetera, feel free to reach out and do that.

But yeah, it’s pretty funny. It’s very horse racing. My, and very me that two weeks out from Saratoga and I kind of still have no idea exactly what days I’m going to be working JK, but I think I’ll probably be able to figure it out. Very you kidding me. That sounds like you took that from my playbook. Well, you know, it’s sorta like travel and making plans on the fly.

I used to think I traveled a lot. I used to think I made plans on the fly. And then I met you and realized that I am a, uh, comparatively a neophyte when it comes to both endeavors. That’s that is the, uh, that is without a doubt, the truth, but I kind of like to move on the fly. I don’t like him, but you know, we used to make fun of me all the time about being dodgy with dinner reservations in Vegas.

I don’t, I don’t. I don’t like to, I don’t, I don’t like to tie myself to a situation. I’ll have to see what’s what’s out there. See, what’s popping. See where noxious that is. It’s like, you’re supposed to commit to wanting to see your friends and your, what you’re essentially saying and the way you live your life with this dinner reservation thing is, eh, I don’t want to commit to dinner with you, Marshall and Nick, because, uh, maybe somebody better is going to invite me.

Well, no offense to our other NAC friends. There’s no one better than Marshall a Dick, but, um, no, I, I just, I don’t, I don’t, I don’t know where I’m eating lunch today. Let alone what time I’m going to head up to New York this weekend. You know what I mean? Like, I, I can’t. My brain just doesn’t want to think about it yet.

That actually segues nicely into my next question for you, but it sounds like you don’t have an answer as to when you expect to be posting up. I mean, presumably you have a house, you have reservations, you have something where, when are you supposed to be there? Yeah, so I can check in, I’m staying at the Hilton garden Inn and, uh, got a nice deal there.

And, and, uh, I even offered, I volunteered our services. You asked me and you Pete to like help them with like a seminar or something. And, and, uh, the very nice lady was like, ah, no big deal. Just, you know, if you can slip our name into any media situations, we’ll appreciate that. So here’s my first call. I’ve already done it.

Garden. Um, yeah, so that, that should be fun. No, I, you know, we have like a dinner, like Saratoga live dinner Tuesday night, so I’ll be breaking my maiden by the way, going to, uh, what is it Nova? Is that the name of it? Uh, no way. Yes. Out on, uh, out on the road there toward, towards Wilton. Breaking my maiden going to no of eight Tuesday night with the whole crew.

And so I don’t have to be there until Tuesday. And I know Austin and I are both tired of being in the car. So, uh, we might do try to split it up 12 hours from Lexington. Maybe we’ll do six. Uh, maybe six, Monday, six Tuesday morning, maybe trying to figure it all out. I could get you to a Western New York, maybe get some tips from our friends, the Matisse brothers about fun things to do in and around the Buffalo, uh, area.

Oh. And that reminds me of something else. I just wanted to tip the listeners. You know, we don’t people have asked me like, Oh, what’s what do you guys see as your competition? And, you know, it’s just not really how we look at the world as we are with our contest. Endeavors. So we are with our podcast. We believe that a rising tide lifts all ships and we believe in what you might call a co-op petition.

You know, we want, we want people to check out the other stuff that we admire. So we certainly don’t mind it. You know, we’re going on Ron flatters show, and we want you to listen to that. And obviously nobody’s been a bigger supporter of us than Steve Beck down the last few years, we, we encourage everybody to listen to Steve Beck.

We’ll put out another plug for a guy frequent guests on this show. In his own. Right. But the better America radio network show that Jason beam does, Paul Matisse guested on it earlier this week and, uh, was terrific, really good stuff. That was a fun day because w w while we’re giving out Saratoga dining recommendations and plugs ended up going to Taverna Novo, Uh, on Tuesday night with both Marshall and Paul, and that was a great, it was a great way to kick off the meat and that place should be in your thoughts a little bit off the beaten path there on the West side in Saratoga, but, uh, Patty is a horseplayer and does a great job and, and always is good, not just to talk about great wine and great food, but also horse racing, a little added incentive, not an uncommon thing amongst the restaurant tours up there, but.

I definitely want to give a little push for that joint. Have you, did you get a chance to hear Paul’s appearance with Jason yet? Pete I’ve been on the car for 12 hours. I’ve heard, I’ve heard everything. What did you think of the latest in the ring pedigree show then? I liked that too. It was very good. Uh, very good.

I enjoyed listen. I told you it’s fun when I’m not on the show. I get to listen. It is cool. It is cool. All right. Uh, we have another guest and I think I’m going to bring him in, but first we’re going to bring you a word. From one of our partners, Hey, everybody just wanted to give a word for our latest partner stats, race lens.

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That web address is black type tb.com. And now I’m very pleased to welcome back to the, in the money airwaves our pal, Nick tomorrow. Nick, how are you today? I’m doing great. How are you? I’m excellent. I got it to make fun of JK earlier in the show for his inability to make a dinner reservation. And, and I can honestly say Nick, that of all my friends, when it comes to this important business, I think I trust you more than anybody else to not only take care of these things, but make sure that deliciousness is going to be going down.

Peter, what you’re saying is that eating is something I’m very well versed at and you’re absolutely correct. There is no, there is no denying it. I have a good appetite is a terrible thing to wait. All right. We are talking about Saratoga so far in the show. We’re going to pivot to Belmont. But before we do that, I do need to ask you, Nick, I’ve heard different rumors about when you may or may not be making your way up to the spa.

I wanted to see if there’s any plans set in stone yet. Will you be coming for the contest? Travers, have any plans at all? Travers is the plan only. Eston putty though at the moment and stone. So I should know. I should know very soon. I’m going to go to Del Mar in two, three weeks. So that’s that’s set, but my plan is to get up for the Travers.

So that’s been my, my week or weekend, the last couple of years and a tough, tough one to beat boss, man. I don’t know if he knows I’ve been upgraded to the probable list. I thought you said you were in. I thought, I thought you said you got the days off. You’re ready to rock and roll. Well, well, well, Tony’s reached out to me about what days I needed.

I haven’t seen a schedule yet opportunity for that to not happen, but he seemed like he was gonna be able to make it work. Excellent. Tony, of course, Tony Alfano, who is the, uh, what would you call him? The grand Poobah w on the Nira bet side and also with these Fox broadcasts and, you know, JKS his new boss.

But he’s got a lot of, a lot of titles actually. And I think he just picked up another one. Recently, the chief experience officer, something’s got a thief revenue officer. I believe there it is. Yeah. It’s, it’s amazing. He’s got the man wears a lot of hats that he has been wearing them successfully. And you know, every Mark is in his favor except potentially the dubious distinction of hiring UGK.

You’re lucky I have a mute button. I was cursing you out. You’re lucky. All right, let’s talk about this Belmont card. We’re just gonna, we’re gonna kind of blow through the stakes races on Saturday, not blow through light. We’re going to give some insights here. We’re just. The, the, the hope is that it’s going to be a little bit of a truncated show, weekend travel plans and all that.

And these guys do in such a great job, rearranging their schedules to be able to do this with me today. I want to be respectful of that. We’re going to start off with Ray six, which is the Dwyer and a code of honor looks to be a short price favorite in here. From my reckoning looks to be one who’s getting better and will be suited to this test.

Only issue obvious to me is going to be the price. Uh, Nick, do you have a potential alternative? I think there are maybe a couple of alternatives. I’ve been, uh, I was a code of honor sand and the Derby, the, the wet weather. Um, that I thought actually would help his chances. And I think it did. I know his third place finished by some might be considered a tad disappointing given where he was at the quarter pole, but without getting into the minutia of the Derby and the various goings on in that race.

I do think that the left turn that. Uh, maximum security made while Louis size was over-correcting a little bit of where he did end up bumping into code of honor at exactly the time when code of honor was in the midst of his move. I think that worked against him. I love that that should more or less made a decision very early, that this was going to be his next spot.

I wish he had run a little bit more frequently, of course, but, um, they’ve been pointing here for a while to get to your question. I think the alternative is me hosts. I don’t have a. A very strong opinion. I’ve liked me hosts since he debuted last year in that very loaded, uh, maiden special one buys a Tacoma at Belmont and I was dying to bet me host and the fountain of youth figuring that he would get a little bit more conventional type of trip.

I thought that in the Holy bull, he was much too close early and he ended up making a couple of moves. I know the Holy bull came back a week race, but I think this horse is ideally suited for a mile and in a situation where he should be able to lay back and make one run. I think that’ll produce probably his, his best type of effort.

It likely won’t be good enough to beat code of honor, but he might be the right partner in the exact right. JK. How do you see it? I think I’ve heard like 17 times at code of honor is a small horse, a small horse, a small horse. So I don’t really worry so much about the distance for him. Maybe this is, this is actually what he’s wanted to do the whole time.

I don’t know if that’s true or not. I’m speculating. He’s obviously the most likely winner in the morning line. Even suggest that at four to five, that I’d be, I’m not really cracking any eggs by telling you is the most likely winner. But I agree with Nick, I think Mayo’s with the T with the three-year-old numbers, the two year old forum.

Maybe he just needed some time to kind of develop. And maybe he’s the one now that you want in this spot with code of honor, obviously pointing to bigger things, no offense to this running of the Dwyer, um, real weight. And I think a lot of people will be watching to see how he runs as Jerry Hollendorfer Geest takes, takes, uh, makes its first start.

Um, and I thought final jeopardy is like a good alternative. Maybe the, maybe Jason service is going to get his. Ship righted. And this horse had shown some talent and done some good things down in South Florida. And maybe, uh, maybe he’s sitting on a big one. Look, if you’re looking for alternatives, eh, luckily this isn’t in the early pick five.

It is the start to the late pick five, um, code of honors, a single here to me just because he’s the most talented horse. He’s the best horse, all of those things. But if the other two, one, I wouldn’t be shocked. So if you’re looking for a price, maybe the other two. If you’re like me and you don’t mind a little dust on your hands, I’d go with them on her dust on the heads.

I like that. I’ll throw one in for the underneath slot in verticals. And I want to get your guys’ opinion. I haven’t seen any workout reports or any specific workout information, but the bullet works from whiskey. Echo reminded me of. Barry Meadows work in the skeptical handicapper, a book, which is still on sale for those interested T our publishing.com is how you get it.

But he talked about how in that book, he goes through a very mathematical way of looking at workouts since a horses last race. And it pointed me to just take a little bit of an extra look at whiskey. Echo is one I could see for getting up there into, into second and third, potentially that you give this horse any chance at all.

Nick. Yes, I think, I think you can definitely get a slice, but I think second off the lay off he’ll be, he’ll be much better suited to, to things. And I think there was the clear improvement from two to three that we wanted to see. It was not the most productive race that he exits, but, uh, I think he did his job and I think the mile we’ll, uh, we’ll be just fine.

Um, you know, one thing I wanted to throw in as far as code of honor goes to that I’ll be interested to see is after the mucho macho man, they. He was written sort of the same way in three subsequent starts. I guess my point is, I think code of honor is become a little bit of a rail rat and I think he needs to be inside in every start.

And I’m wondering if that might be something that they try and test. A little bit differently in here because it’s really not a very tough field, but if you watch the fountain of youth, Florida, Derby and Kentucky Derby, there’s a very clear effort on John Velasquez, his part to, to stay inside. And, uh, with all due respect to John Velasquez, let’s be honest.

He’s not really usually going out of his way to stay on the rail. Um, he’s not Mike Smith, but of course he’s not really usually gonna try and get himself into any kind of trouble down there. So I’ll be interested to see what happens. I think the anticipation of course, is that rotates and show speed. And that might give the.

Code of honor, a chance to drop over a little bit in front of me hosts, but it’s good to have him back. We’ll see what he does. Obviously, some big objectives down the line. Great stuff, excellent analysis. And it gives people another, just weigh in to looking at this trip before it even happens, which is something that I know listeners appreciate.

Let’s move on to Ray seven. It is the Belmont Oaks. I’m just going to ask, I’m going to ask this question a little bit, a little bit differently than, than I usually do. I’m going to, rather than ask who you like JK, I’m going to ask you who should the favorite being here because I have it differently than the sports books taking bets on this in the UK and the morning line in my, by my reckoning.

But anyway, who should be the favorite in the Belmont Oaks? Uh, should I guess probably cam your park. Should. Be the favorite Chad beat newspaper last time and beat her, you know, kind of convincingly drew in drawing away, um, from her. But I would imagine that newspaper still goes off favorite. I don’t know.

Nick’s probably better at this game than I am. Bring him in right away for this. Before we get to your thought on this, I was going to say concrete roads should be the favorite, but what do you think, Nick? I actually would’ve said concrete Rose, too. Um, I would’ve, I would’ve, yeah. I would’ve said concrete Rose slightly, and David Aragon is an excellent morning wine maker.

So he’s probably right. Uh, but we’ll see. There’ll be interesting questions I should clarify. I didn’t mean to pick on David. I think the name recognition of newspaper might make that the right pick, but it’s just like, so my should, wasn’t a, like, what’s actually gonna happen. Oh, this is a bad line. It was more just like in the world.

I want to live in. Right, right. No, I totally understand where you were going with it. And I don’t think it was a slight against him at all. And I think he would probably agree that, you know, this is look, I mean, I guess, with the launch, into our conversation with the race itself, even though I used surf JK, cause it would have been his turn, but I’m that way today at least.

You know, it, it, this is sort of the last stop on the expressway for newspaper of record and don’t get me wrong. I’m a newspaper of record fan. She was bad add. And the wonder again, that was, uh, there were a lot, a lot of question marks that can develop from that race. First of all, how far she wants to go, how much she wants to from turf course, if she has just come to become completely headstrong for a variety of reasons up to, and including that she may not want anything much more than a mile.

Um, there were excuses for the Edgewood. There is no excuse for the wonder again, that was a very moderate pace for, for any horse, let alone one that looks to have the type of talent that she does. And she was beaten on the square by a stable mate that I would be willing to bet four months ago. Or so if you told Chad Brown to come to a park was ever going to beat newspaper of record, he probably would have wanted you to.

To let him know what you had been using in terms of illegal substances. So I, I don’t, I don’t see it, um, in terms of, I just, I, my take, I think she’s not moved forward from two to three. I think she was way ahead of the curve as a two year old. I think she’s probably much more suited to a mile. And I think this is probably the last time you’re ever going to see her in a mile and a quarter.

And w who would your alternative be? I think, you know, and, and you you’ll have better insight into European form, but, um, I feel like the, the form line for Linden last time is the best performance in 2019 in this field. And whether that was a particularly strong running of the pre, uh, the St. Larry or not, that was a very, very strong effort.

This is a barn that has done well in America. In the past. She should be drawn favorably for ground saving trips. And should be able to lay back and make one run. I thought she was the one that, that looked the most interesting from a price perspective, I would have to say also the concrete roads who I really undersold as a two year old.

I didn’t realize how much of the breeders’ cup, juvenile fillies turf. She spent down towards the inside, which was obviously not the place to be. And then she came back and want to a really rough running other Florida Oaks where I don’t think things really went her way necessarily. And I thought she was, she was very impressive in victory, but obviously.

Rusty Arnold’s barn was hot when she won the Edgewood, but she ran well. And I think there’s still a lot of room for her to move forward. So I think in a way she’s the horse to beat, I guess a Linden is just the horse that I want to bet. Yeah. I’m with you on a lend and as the alternative to concrete Rose for me, I really liked those two in here.

You point out the form being a second beat and a length in the group one last time. And then just as you look through just the continue, I love the continual. Improvement. And I see no reason why that’s not going to happen through the summer and in great hands. I mean, just, there’s so many things to point in this direction.

And I think that the market, because of the Chad Brown fact factor, because of the newspaper of record name recognition, there’s just going to be a little bit of fat in the odds there. All right, JK. Now we’ve both stolen your turn. Who’s going to win the Belmont Oaks. Um, probably concrete rows. Okay. So, but here’s, here’s let me give this thought out.

Just want to get it out before this happens. Newspaper of record, probably hasn’t trained on from two to three. Probably not. She probably doesn’t want to go a mile and a quarter. Probably not. However, I am reserving at least one more. Straw in the, uh, that we’re going to pull out of here to hope that I just think that if she is let run early and they use her speed as a weapon, rather than some tactical advantage, don’t use it as a tactical advantage.

Use it as a weapon. I think maybe we could be wrong about the other two things, two to three, and also the mile and a quarter. If you look at her three races, As it as a two year old, there’s one, there’s a couple of common factors. One of them she won’t have, I don’t think, I don’t know what the weather’s like, but she’s, she, I think she likes it with a little bit of cut in the ground.

I think she likes it when it’s soft. Um, you know, our three performances, the two are all on yielding turf courses. But if you look at her, her top of the stretch call or that kind of that final call before the final, the final one, she was, she was ahead by five and a half. She was ahead by four and a half and she was ahead by six.

I just think she needs to run. And I tell you right now, and I know that we all like time form us. When you look at the time, form us from her last race and you see those blue fractions with Earl on the lead and her getting beat, that is a normal type of toss for me in normal situations. But I just think they got it.

Ron, we talked about it previously on the show, Pete, about how I think that she, you know, these horses have a tank of gas and it halfway through the race she’s going to still finish, but. When you fight her early, you’re going to get to that half a tank a lot sooner. And I just think they got to let her rock and roll.

And if she’s going to get the mile and a quarter, or she’s not going to get it, it doesn’t matter if they let her run early or not. They’re not going to rate her into getting the mile and a quarter. So let her roll. And hopefully they do, although I doubt they will, I’ll be rooting for concrete roads type of trip.

Nick, do you see newspaper getting, do you think JKS strategy has any chance of becoming a reality? Do you think they might do something even more radical? I mean, I don’t know that she’s, she’s probably too fast to try to drop him behind horses, but where do you see her being as this and how fast do you see her going as this race develops?

Yeah, I would have to say that there’s really nobody in here who can get in front of her. So I think in that sense, she has to be in front and, you know, one of the things that. That I’ve wondered about with her is, is Iran is so good on the front end. And he generally is, you know, it, there’s obviously no chance that Ramon Dominguez is coming out of, out of retirement, unfortunately, because he had the greatest hands of anybody in the last few years that I thought.

In terms of, of really rating a speed horse. Iran is very, very good when it comes to that. And maybe, maybe just with some, some slightly altered training and, and him getting her to relax a little bit more, getting back to that ability that she showed us the two year old, we could see kind of a reversal of a fortunes, but, um, I’m imagining that they’ll put her on the lead and see how far she can take them and hope that that may be whatever worked last year in terms of getting her to switch off a little bit, uh, comes back.

All right. Let’s move on to the John.  the renamed appropriately renamed Belmont sprint championship promises fulfilled making the return to the races here and certainly ran pretty darn well, I thought last time, given the troubled start and the difficult assignment against that field, um, might be able to control things this time around.

And that could mean the rest of this field is in deep water. Uh, this, this one feels like a JK single am I right? Yeah. I love the horse here. You know, there’s I don’t know. Do we know do shares running today or, or, or today as in, as in Friday or is he running tomorrow? Does anyone know the answer to that question?

Okay, good. Well, I, it doesn’t really matter. I mean, he would be the only alternative for me. I think promises fulfilled was in the wrong place, place on the racetrack, uh, on Belmont stakes day, he was going probably not a taste farther than he wants, but I think that the cutback will help him. I think he could win a one one-term mile race, just probably not against them.

A totally and McKinsey. But I think he could definitely win a one turn race. Like I can see him winning the cigar mile or whatever, and I’d have no issue with that, but I think he’s going to be very tough in this race drawn outside. Um, and yes, he would be a single for me. Nick, your thoughts? Yeah. He looks like none of the likeliest winners.

I think you’ll see on this Carter or any. I mean, uh, I can’t add terribly much to what Jonathan was saying. Other than that, I think it was probably easy with promises fulfilled to be, I mean, we’re so result-oriented nowadays that it was, it was easy to think that he hadn’t run that well in the last few starts he’s actually run great.

Yeah. And, and, and I mean, the drop in class here is colossal and he looks like six to five to me and long gone from the start. Yeah, I cannot, I cannot disagree and do not have too much to add. The do share question is interesting from a value point of view. Can you, you know, JK what I’ve told you about not asking questions, you don’t know the answers to.

Can you, can you do your penance and look that up, but check the scratches? I can. My only concern is that the racing is this evening. And so there’s a possibility that scratches aren’t in yet very Meadows. But I will, uh, I’ll do that thing where I talk real slow and, and, uh, with the power of, uh, of pausing, maybe we could, uh, I get, we can luck.

Yeah, I had checked Twitter. And as of this moment, there is no update. So I, I would imagine that, uh, that do share maybe being, I think there’s a chance that he ends up running in, in Iowa, uh, with it being six for a long, I think make or prefers six for a longs for the source and promises fulfilled is obviously a little, little, little tough.

Yeah. And that’ll probably. The unfortunate part of that, I suppose, is it’ll push that six to five might become a dream. And you’re looking at odds on at that point. What’s your general approach in that situation? Like we know JK is just sort of single and move on, but when the, when the bedding gets, when it gets hit and gets too heavy, are you more of a single and move on or are you more of a pass?

Will you will a horse being just buried, even though you think he’s as likely winners promises fulfilled, will that make you. Reach in another direction for a smaller play. How do you deal with that situation in a situation like this, with it being in the middle of the pick five, I will just treat it as, you know, we’ll, we’ll single them and get going from there.

So there’s no, I mean, my, one of my favorite plays actually in situations like this is to find a price in the exact and to play the favorite over price Wars in the exact day. And so I’ll play some. So promises fulfilled warriors club exact is probably, uh, figuring that he’s just going to lay back and make one run.

Even though there might not be a whole lot of pace, he might be able to win that race for a second. And Pat, on the back end at seven for a launch of the horse, I think that you can take a little bit of a swing against, in a slower paced race where, uh, you know, he’s not necessarily overwhelmingly, likely to be second.

And that might open up the possibility for a couple of decent. Exactly. All right. Race nine is the braid one Belmont Derby, interesting race with a lot of familiar faces. Some of whom may even be running in the right spot. Nick, we’ll keep it with you. This is, uh, this is a fascinating race. I mean, of all the runnings of this race, this is going to be a, a patch starting gate and it looks like it should be an honestly run race with some, some real speed and some real off the pace types.

Uh, I’ve I really tried to go a million different directions. And I feel like in terms of, I think in my opinion that the majority of the time this race is run and it might not be a large number, but the majority of time this race has run, the digital age is going to win. And I think digital agents is really on the verge of being, he sort of the, the three-year-old light version of bricks and mortar, and that he just kind of shows up every time.

And, and he’s overcome some adversity in, in each of his first three starts and has gotten the job done. And I think he’s also a little bit impervious to negative face scenarios though. It’s a big deal. This, this field actually is not really loaded with speed. I think the pace will be decent at best. Um, and it’ll really boil down to Wichita Fletcher horse.

They want to put on the front end. So I think there’s delays can overcome that. And I don’t really love any of the horses exiting the Pennine Ridge. I do think the Marshall EA ran well and obviously seismic waiver and better than I expected. I feel like the price horse that you want to give a chance to is English B.

And I say that because Graham motion has had a number of horses run well in these kinds of scenarios. When they look a little outclass. And it looks like they’re going to need a really big step forward in order to contend looking at versus like ascend and spring quality who won consecutive running to the Manhattan, a huge prices.

English V is a horse that when you look through you start to pick apart his PPS, you realize there’s only bad race was in the Columbia. And when you watch that replay, you’re going to be completely dumbfounded as to what Crystalyn Darryl’s was doing. It, it was, it was just something that went right. It did not go well.

And, and he came back and won a, won the James Murphy without, uh, uh, completely ideal trip and set up. And now I think he’s really poised to move forward. So that’s, they’re going to be my two that I focus on. I think an intro race plays, obviously, as far as horizontals go, I think you’re going to need to have a little bit more.

The little, me being a little bit more open, but it’s definitely a really terrific running of what’s become a fundraising year and year. Yeah, it is. It’s really cool. And you, uh, English B was one. I was gonna mention if only because of the trouble trip and the length in a quarter to digital age, that’s the kind of thing in turf racing, uh, that, that can sometimes point you to.

I want you to a really nice price, a horse to either potentially really upset the applecart and win, or at least get up there somewhere in the number. J K uh, where do you land in this year’s Belmont Derby. It was a very tough race. I feel like, uh, someone in connection with the Chad Brown bar, I saw a tweet, got their nails done with like the Peter Brant silks, the Oxo silks and the, and the Clair of its silk.

So I might have to do that as well. At some point, I’d pay to see that. I could be, that could be a potential losing head-to-head situation at Saratoga. Uh, seismic wave did run really good. Um, and the pine Ridge. So I, I mean, I like, I like him here and obviously I would think that the distance is not going to be an issue.

Um, Moon colony ran a really fast number on yielding turf in the pin mile. So that’s another horse. I don’t, I think that I can get behind a little bit at what could be a forgotten price and we’ll end up with Julian getting a great pocket trip around there. We’ll save a lot of ground and, and, uh, if, if they don’t go too fast, might out sprint these, uh, for home.

Um, master fencer is interesting. He was the punchline of a lot of jokes in, in may and, uh, and he ran well twice. Uh, may and June and, and ran well twice. And I think that maybe the, the switch to turf could be beneficial for that one, but ultimately, um, ultimately I was interested in Henley’s joy. Uh, that horse has been kind of knocking on the door, wanting to, to kind of break through.

And it’s kind of always there. It’s never really embarrassed has had some bad trips. And we know when it comes to the question marks of a lot of these being able to get a mile and a quarter when Mike maker is training them. That usually is never, the reason they get beat is because they didn’t want the added distance, whatever he does, his training style can get a horse to stretch out whether it’s sprinting or going long, long.

And I think Henley’s joy will offer a lot of value, all the other Chad’s and Mott’s, and Todd’s are getting bet he’s going to be forgotten. And so he’ll be my top pick, but don’t, don’t get me wrong. Uh, and, and spread situations, moon colony, seismic wave English, B all of those sources will be used. I think it’s a very, very tough race, but I’ll go with Henley.

Enjoy my topic. You use all of the Pennine Ridge runners who were under that blanket in your spreads JK, or do you have reasons to dislike any of the top ones from there? Yeah. I didn’t like social paranoia who was closer up than the rest of it. Um, I, I prefer, uh Demartini yeah. Who came from out of it and seismic wave who came from further out of it.

Those are the two that I want in this situation. So, um, and then digital age obviously ran huge at Churchill. So those are the ones that I’ll use. Um, like I said, it’ll be a big spread for me here. Um, I’m actually gonna play in the, in the NYRA contest. So there’s a world in which there’ll be an all-in double with it.

Promises fulfilled, uh, to the, the horses I like here, if I can get an okay. Return, an interesting idea for that contest. That’s right. I, I didn’t write about this one. I was hoping they’d reach out. I was so looking forward to, to getting to write about our man Blake, Jesse, but that article we’ll have to wait.

We’ll get, we’ll get something up there, but yeah, the online, the ability to play in that NYRA bets contest online definitely makes it a more appealing for a lot of players. And Nick, any other thoughts about this year’s Belmont Derby to share before we move it on to the suburban? No, I think that we covered just about all of them.

And I guess we didn’t mention really any of the, either of the European runners from a Bay. No, Brian’s stable, but I don’t really know if they need to be discussed. Um, one of the things I think that. I, I try at times in order to decipher not only decipher European forum, but make plans on how to approach some of these horses, looking back at some of the horses that he sent over in the past that have run well.

And they pretty much all been on some kind of upward trajectory and these horses are not. So they, they, they look like fillers on the plane that really shouldn’t make much of an impact. Um, And, and, and I think the American contingent is pretty solid. So that, that would be the only other thing I would have added this part about it is the, the collective price of those two horses, Cape of good hope.

And Blenheim palace are going to be very interesting, especially if you look at their, uh, at their siblings, Idaho, Highland, reel Clemmy and Churchill. Those are the, the, the before of, uh, of those two horses. Um, siblings, that’s a pretty strong pedigree. Oh, no doubt about it. Who more breeding operation. Yeah.

They may have some good horses, but I, I agree. I think that was a very astute observation, Nick, about the sort of trajectory that they’re on. And while he’s had success on this day with, I guess it was last year with Athena in the Oaks. Generally speaking the O’Brien shippers to the States outside in the last five years or so, maybe even a little bit longer outside of Breeder’s cup.

Uh, the numbers are not pretty, so I want that doesn’t mean they’d be an auto toss. If there was one coming into it the right way, I’d be happy to get on board, but it’s not like you can just count on a, a reversal. A form on a card like this, we’ll see how they do this year. Maybe he’ll turn that around.

Certainly would be no surprise to see them run well. But I think from a wagering point of view, uh, we are correct to be leaning in another direction. And that brings us to the suburban and the return to the races. And one of my favorite horses in training, one of the coolest and best horses in training talk at a course about Catholic boy, Nick, will it be Catholic boys day on Saturday, or do you like something else in here?

Um, I’m really interested to see Catholic boy get back to the dirt. Uh, I think Jonathan Thomas certainly is looking to go with what has worked in the past. Uh, it was not by no means it was by no means an authoritative win in the Dixie. Uh, but it didn’t really have to be. So I think he, he probably shook some rust off.

Everybody was, was oohing and eyeing at this workout. He had recently that I think signals his readiness pretty clearly. And, and I would also say probably the single biggest factor in this race. In that goes in Catholic voice favor is that, uh, please sort of looks like the, if he’s not the controlling speed from the inside, I mean, he’s probably in many ways going to dictate how this race is run.

And I think the majority of his rivals want to kind of be a little bit farther off of it and are going to see where he’s positioned. I think before his determination is made on how they’re going to be written, I’m going to use Catholic boy primarily in the multi race beds. I’m going to use a few backups.

That pretty much are all going to be prices because I don’t like preservationists. I don’t like lone sailor. I could, I can use Pavo, even though I don’t love his draw. He at least has the class edge that, that you would like, and didn’t get really an ideal trip in the, in the met mile. Jonathan and I both discussing horses that were mainly outside on the Belmont card, uh, because I think we share the belief that that be inside was absolutely the place to be.

And if you believe that. Then two of the horses in here that you have to use a rocketry and realm and maybe rocketry a little bit more so than relevance. He was nowhere near the insight here. He had the double whammy that day of being against the grain of the racetrack and weight against the race flow as Marconi really dictated terms really did what he wanted on the front end, rocketry and realm.

Both had to overcome that. I think rocketry is a better horse than realms, so I’d be a little bit more inclined to use him, but I’m going to make sure that both of those horses along with Pavo are my main backups to Catholic boy who. If he, I mean, you know, this is another big F but if he runs back to his best dirt races last year, he’ll win.

You know, he’ll, he’ll win just like he did in the, uh, in the Remsen going to dirt as a two year old. And as he did in the Travers going in terms of dirt as a three-year-old. So looking to stick with what’s worked in the past, I can see why Jonathan Thomas is doing it. And I think he drew the right kind of field for a grade to where the hefty purse that, uh, that could put them in a, in a good spot to keep those winning ways going on the surface change.

I agree completely. He’s the one for me. And I’ll just make this observation about the Brooklyn erase. I really like it, I think is cool. It wasn’t until I sat down and this is embarrassing admission for somebody who does a horse racing podcast. It wasn’t until I sat down to talk about this race that I actually even watched it this year, the Brooklyn should not be a walkout race.

Anyway, that’s just my little bit of editorializing at the end of a 13 race course. Of course, you feel that way coming from a guy who lives in Brooklyn, Homer. Well, see this. I can actually add something on that, Pete. And you, you need to, you need to upgrade the friends that you hang out with design. Lots of Brooklyn live on Marshall Graham’s phone because Marshall bedded and we were impacted Cummings car driving to dinner and Marshall bet the Brooklyn.

And so we watched it. It live. So obviously that’s where the error was made. Not in, and you’re absolutely right. It should not have been a walkout race by any means. And you’ve just got to make sure you’re around the kind of people that really are into the 13th at Belmont, as much as they are. Anything else that could go on and on.

You’re absolutely right. You’re absolutely right. I, I should, I should have been ashamed for that reason. That is the exact correct thing, Mr. Brooklyn, J K, what’s your thought on this suburban. I think arguably, uh, I mean, I’ve, I’ve continuously voted. McKinsey is the best older horse, but I think arguably Catholic boys is the best older horse and training.

And I think it’s not an argument that he is trained by the best name to trainer in racing and Jonathan Thomas. But, um, look, I think that Paul had mentioned on our show, we did an iron bed show, uh, Royal Ascot week where Paul said that. That, uh, you know, you kind of talked about the, the, the switching back from dirt and turf between horses.

I think Catholic boys, a dirt horse that can turf, I don’t think he’s a turf horse that can dirt. And I think that we’re going to see that, uh, pretty, uh, explosive performance from him on Saturday after kind of like you said, getting the, the tune-up, um, the only other horse that I’ll use, uh, defensively with some saber tickets and multi-racial situations as possible.

Uh, and for all the reasons that Nick mentioned, so to avoid being redundant, the inside was good. And if the inside was good that day, you have to like a horse like that. Um, The other horses exiting the Brooklyn, I think could be a little bit. I don’t want to use this. I want to say pluggy, but that’s probably not fair.

Maybe plotty is the better word. And that’s why they’re running in these really long races. I mean, rocketry is running two mile races before. And so I worry that the, that the mile and a quarter might be a little too sharp for them. And I don’t know. I don’t get to say that much here. Yeah. Not in this American racing.

Yeah. But I do think that paulville, it kind of could hit him right. Between the eyes he’s been trading. Well, he was, he worked, he ran well. Uh, I think Doug O’Neill is probably not an underrated trainer anymore after winning two Kentucky Derbys but sometimes forgotten cause he’s on the West coast and the East coast can forget about him a little bit.

So those are the only two that I need. I think that the rail draw for, for Catholic boys is only going to help him get into the race where he probably needs to be anyways, channeling your inner Tom Quigley and accusing Nick and I have East coast bias JK. No, no, no, no. Not at all. Not at all. Even though I do always encourage people to tweet what East is best just to get quickly fired up.

He’s he’s he is devoted. He is devoted to that. Cause a question about Catholic boy for you, Nick, before we wrap it up here, Jay Kay’s point about him being. Better dirt horse would seem to be born out by the buyer speed figures that he’s run on each surface, but what’s your take on that? Do you, do you see him as better on dirt or turf or, or equal?

It’s a great question. Actually. I, I, I would be inclined to lean the direction that Jonathan just, uh, just stated, which is that he’s a dirt horse that can run on tour. Um, and I think he might have, actually, I see, I’ve always, I’m cynical obviously. And of course, like every other horse player that thinks they’re good, believes that I know everything.

And so when, when, when horses debut on the turf, it generally is my opinion that they’re slow. Right? And, and so they need to be in sort of equalizing types of situations where, you know, they may only lose by two lengths and a trainer can tell an owner, Hey, we only lost by two, you know, but not letting them know that.

The two lengths on a turf horse is huge. So I guess that typically was a horse that may be maybe trained in such a way that, that gave Jonathan Thomas the idea that he maybe needed to be on turf. Maybe he wanted to turns a little bit earlier on and got into a place like the, with anticipation. Right? And so, you know, this was the thing that came up talking about pioneer of the Nile and a lot of other horses over the years that were debuted going long.

And it was the two turn angle of it. And actually think it might be the case with him. Whereas, you know, I’ve always said, yeah, that’s right. The horse was just slow. Right. I mean, there was, they were, they were plotty and slow and they needed to go along because they couldn’t win a dirt sprint. Like the good two year olds are supposed to, but, but I think he’s made it pretty clear and enough dirt starts since then that, uh, that, that he is a dirt horse, I guess, is his issue in the past, of course had been.

Um, and, and that reared, its ugly head in the Florida Derby and the breeders’ cup classic, hopefully it’s alleviated and, and we’ll see the best of him because it’s a handicap division that needs a, it needs a star and he has the look of a true mile and a quarter horse. And right now the two best older males alive are men.

Totally. And McKinsey, both of whom are going to be at their best somewhere between seven and nine for a long time. Yeah. I’m wondering if you and I JK haven’t been underrating Catholic boy in our. Classic poll that we’ve been doing for the breeders cup, but we’ll know a lot more. Yeah. Yeah. I think we’ll have stuck.

Oh, thunder, snow. I think that’s fair. Yeah, until he, I think that we just need, look as soon as Catholic boy wins my next poll, I will move him to second. I think that’s, I think that’s fair enough. And it’s also like when you’re looking at a division, it’s like, are we talking nine? Or are we talking just the classic and just the adjust, the 10 furlongs.

But just to underline that, that hypothesis, Nick, I, when we talked to Jonathan Thomas on the show about Catholic boy and the. And the reason for, for debuting on turf, it, it was all about the distance and that idea that he was a true router. And we’ve seen that before. I mean, going back a ways now, but big Brown is one.

I remember fooling myself and being like confused as to why they were choosing to start him on the turf. And no, no, he was just a rocket ship. They just. Wanted to start that program of, of going long earlier, but it’s not that you’re wrong. You’ll see a lot more horses who are starting on turf for the, for your cynical guests than not, but as with everything else in horse racing, it always pays to be able to be, uh, to be nimble and dance on your toes a little bit and figure out, uh, what the exceptions to the rule are.

No doubt about it. Yeah. And, and, and I think it’s unquestionable at this point, the Catholic voice proven that he’s very good on both surfaces. So, I mean, you’re, you’re talking about a horse that could be the second or third choice in the Whitney and could probably be the, the third, second or third choice and in the Arlington million.

And that doesn’t happen often. And, uh, he’s, he’s absolutely that type. So in a day and age where we, we really favor specialization a little bit too much in sport in general, he’s a horse that, uh, that has a specialty. He just runs fast. All right, JK, you got a final thought for us before we wrap this addition to the show.

Hey PTF. We’ll see you soon, Austin. Great stuff. Can’t wait. Parent is very excited to hang out with you. We’ll see when that happens. There’ll be some, uh, there’ll be some American Ninja warrior junior trials and or pool time in our near future. And there’s no better way than that to wrap up. This edition of the, in the money players podcast.

I want to thank Jay. Kay. I want to thank AK. I want to thank Nick tomorrow. Let’s put it out there for our sponsors as well. We’re talking about black type thoroughbreds, 10 strike racing, the thoroughbred retirement foundation stats, race lens. We couldn’t do the show without you, but most of all, I want to thank all of you, the listeners who make it so much fun to do this, show’s been a production of in the money media, in the money media’s business manager is drew Kotani.

I’m Peter Thomas foreign, a towel Mayo in all your photos.

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