PTF here. So happy to have Steven Bonnick back with us for 2024 Royal Ascot. One of the sharpest form analysts I know, he will be taking us through his notes on key contenders for all 35 races this week. For even more information, including Steven’s verdicts and Best Bets from Rob Dove (one of the top 10 propunters in the UK today), please sign up for our In the Money Plus service at inthemoneypodcast.com/plus . His thoughts on the penultimate day are below…
Albany Stakes – 6 Furlongs – Group 3
A cracking renewal of this race and pleasing to see Coolmore and Godolphin clashing with two promising sorts.
The boys in blue are represented by MOUNTAIN BREEZE and I love what I have seen from this filly in her two wins at Newmarket so far. She’s got loads of speed and the form of her debut win is working out very nicely. Her second win doesn’t look as good on paper, but she won that with plenty of authority despite carrying a 5lb penalty. This half-sister to the Champion 2-year-old Pinatubo was reported to be “hating every minute” of the track on debut and may be even better here.
FAIRY GODMOTHER represents Coolmore and looks set to go off a short-priced favourite, as she has on both starts to date. She was beaten at 4/7 on debut but made amends next time out in the Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas, turning around the form with Sparkling Sea, who had beaten her previously by 2.5 lengths, on the same terms. She was value for a lot more than the winning margin there in my opinion, and the time and the splits were excellent, although I’m a bit worried about the overall form of the Irish juveniles.
She had CALIFORNIA DREAMER behind her last time out. I was all over this filly for the 5 furlong race here earlier in the week but she runs here over the six instead. She showed blistering speed through the middle part of the race last time and was clear a furlong out, but couldn’t sustain her run. It’s hard to see how she beats Fairy Godmother at this stiffer track, unless she is ridden much more conservatively this time.
HEAVENS GATE represents the same connections as Fairy Godmother and has a similar profile, beaten on debut before improving to win at the second time of asking. She took a maiden at The Curragh in comfortable style, going clear a furlong out and not really doing a lot in front to my eye. She is a likeable, well-made filly who should run well.
TWAFEEG won nicely on debut in a solid time and should progress, while at bigger prices SIMMERING might go well. These owners have already had a big-priced winner at the meeting and there was a lot to like about her debut when well supported for a hot contest against the boys at York. She mixed it with Arabie, a subsequent Group 3 winner who had already run, for most of the race, travelling powerfully but just getting tired close home and fading into third. I imagine she will be ridden very differently here with Jamie Spencer on and this powerful traveller may love to come through off a strong pace.
Commonwealth Cup – 6 Furlongs – Group 1
Far from a vintage renewal of this race and very few that can seriously be fancied on ratings.
Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has a strong hand in this contest as he owns the two market leaders, ELITE STATUS and INISHERIN.
Elite Status had looked good at the start of last season, impressing enough to go off at 7/4 in the Norfolk Stakes last year, but his season fell apart towards the end meaning he had plenty to prove going into his sophomore season. He looked back to his very best on his return last time out, however, in the Carnarvon Stakes, making all of the running, travelling well and powering clear. He’s clearly done well over the winter but he may face some more pace pressure here.
That is likely to come from his owner-mate Inirsherin. A backwards type as a juvenile, he did well to finish sixth in the 2000 Guineas given how keen he was up with a fast pace and he showed his true worth dropped to sprinting last time out in the Sandy Lane Stakes. He split the race apart with his speed from 2-1f out and powered through the line in a fast time. He has plenty more to come and looks the one to beat.
STARLUST was a decent juvenile, looking unlucky not to finish a bit closer behind Big Evs in the Juvenile Turf Sprint at the Breeders’ Cup last November. He didn’t cut much ice in Dubai but showed his true worth of the minimum distance at York last time out, winning a handicap impressively off a mark of 105. He was well favoured by the weights there, beating up two handicappers rated in the 80s, and this will be much tougher up a furlong in trip – connections reach for the blinkers, but I’m not sure why.
Starlust had finished well beaten on his seasonal debut over this course and distance in the official trial for this. As a winner of that race, JASOUR must come into the reckoning. He showed early promise last year but bombed out on soft ground in the Prix Morny and pulled too hard on his final start in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. He looked far more tractable last time out restrained off the pace and I really like the way he travelled through the race and quickened to lead, running the penultimate furlong 0.41 seconds faster than any of his rivals. The time and form both look solid, and Jim Crowley has got a fine tune out of this horse both times he has ridden him.
Few of the others make much appeal. I liked how KIND OF BLUE won with a penalty last time but he has nearly two stone to find on ratings
Coronation Stakes – 8 Furlongs – Group 1
This looks an excellent renewal of this race.
OPERA SINGER is favourite based largely on her performances as a juvenile. She looked a champion at the end of last season and ran well enough on her return in the Irish 1000 Guineas. That effort was a fair way below the level required to win this and I’m not a huge fan of Justify as a sire. She could win but I think she’s short enough.
RAMATUELLE is another Justify but has at least proven she has trained on. She looked sure to win the English 1000 Guineas when kicking clear last time out but maybe went a bit too early, caught close home and fading to third. She gets a nice jockey upgrade with Oisin Murphy taking over and this handy sort should be well suited by racing around a bend.
ELMALKA ultimately came out on top on the English 1000 but I think I prefer Ramatuelle to confirm the form. Elmalka came from further back in a strongly run race that suited closers and I wonder if this different sort of test may not suit her as well.
PORTA FORTUNA was runner up in the 1000 and I’d prefer her over ELMALKA in this spot. She was having her first run of the season and I think she made a better middle move than that rival. The emphasis on speed here might suit her better and she can improve again with that run under her belt.
ROUHIYA landed the French 1000 last time out and looks to be steadily improving. A couple of lengths behind her that day was CONTENT, who looks like she could go well at a big price. She was too keen in France but progressed steadily last year and looked rather unlucky not to win the Juvenile Fillies Turf, blasting home in 22.08 for the final two furlongs. She will need to settle better than she did at Longchamp, but that was her first run of the season and she looks to have all the tools to be well suited to this type of race.
Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – 12 Furlongs – Handicap
A tight handicap in which the market is dominated by Irish runners.
Willie Mullins had a winner earlier in the week and looks to have a very strong chance of doubling that tally here with ETHICAL DIAMOND. This gelding was having his first run on the flat for the stable at Leopardstown last time out and ran a blinder, just nudged out by Saturn, who has franked the form, with the pair clear of another subsequent winner in third. A maiden winner over this distance, he should enjoy returning to 12 furlongs and has very few negatives with Ryan Moore booked.
CRYSTAL BLACK is next in following a third successive win last time out at the Curragh. That was over two furlongs shorter and the pace this speedy horse showed there would make me seriously doubt his ability to stay this testing 12 furlongs. He clearly has abundant ability, however, having come from a fair way back off steady fractions last time against the flow.
DEAKIN was one place behind Crystal Black last time out when making his seasonal debut. A winner on soft ground over an extended 12 furlongs last season, he should have found this trip a little sharp but the opposite appeared to be the case. Travelling well in the lead off a slow gallop, he quickened a couple of lengths clear when asked and should have been a certain winner from the position he was in given his apparent stamina and I was a little disappointed that Crystal Black ran him down. However, he may have needed the run there and will probably enjoy being ridden with a bit more restraint here. His stable isn’t having a great week so far.
SAFECRACKER finished only fifth in that Curragh race but I think I like his run the most in the context of this context. He’s a real stayer and that contest would not have played to his strengths at all, so the fact he could run a 11.08 and 11.02 and come home in 33.83 look highly significant to me. He’ll love this ground, is well drawn in stall 11 and I think this horse has improved again as a 6-year-old.
The British are not out of this and have a couple of interesting contenders. BAGUE D’OR looked to have improved again when winning on his return to action last time out and this big horse could well go onto even better things under conditions that he’ll love.
SHADOW DANCE is very unexposed and I liked his last run where he probably got outstayed a bit on bad going, while I also think he was in front soon enough there. He travels strongly and has a pedigree to really appreciate this better going, while a gelding operation over the winter is unlikely to have done him any harm. He strikes as the type to find another good chunk of improvement.
Sandringham Stakes – 8 Furlongs – Handicap
This looks hot and you can expect a number of this huge field to be plying their trade in Stakes company by the end of the season.
One horse who is already there is KITTY ROSE. I thought this could have been the best juvenile filly in Ireland last season following her win over Content, who looked the best horse in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, but enthusiasm from myself and connections for big targets seemed to dip after that rival reversed the form in the Staffordstown Stud Stakes. However, Kitty Rose was racing against a bias that day, so I was confident that she would go very well on seasonal debut in the Ballylinch Stud Stakes. The market agreed, as she was heavily backed, only to just be touched off by the promising A Lilac Rolla. That filly has since gone onto finish 2nd in the Irish 1000 Guineas, so the form looks good, and I think Kitty Rose has plenty more to come. I think she’s a 110+ filly, so a mark of 104 is workable, and the switch to Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr – multiple Grade 1 winners in Australia – is intriguing.
HARD TO RESIST was another filly who tried her hand at Stakes company last season, although she always fell a little short in those races. I’m not convinced the soft ground she was racing on in those events was ideal for her though, and she has a nice pedigree to excel at Ascot.
The giant FAIR ANGELLICA lost her unbeaten record on her first start of this season but quickly got back to winning ways in a handicap at Kempton last time, blowing her field apart from the front and recording a big speed-figure in the process. She’s up a furlong in trip here and is unlikely to be able to pull off such tactics in a field such as this, but if she can rate a little off the speed this time she still has upside off a mark of 94, as I’m sure she’ll be rated 100+ by the end of the season.
FLIGHT OF FANTASY continues to improve with every run and this well-bred daughter of Galileo should be capable of better as the season goes on. She was just touched off by ZAYNAB in a warm handicap at the Curragh last time out, with slight preference here for the latter named, who has only had three runs and only started her career in March. She looks to be improving rapidly and this strong-finishing horse who can often be keen might take her form to new heights off a fast pace.
Ralph Beckett has already won one handicap race at this meeting with a regally bred filly and he could repeat the trick with INDELIBLE here. By a French Derby winner and out for a Filly & Mare Turf winner, she is bred to be a lot better than a mark of 91 and has done little wrong in three runs so far, winning twice in novice events following a good second on debut. She looked in trouble last time but showed an excellent attitude and plenty of pace to eventually wear down a talented colt who she was giving weight to. She’s not been missed in the market, but should be much better than her mark in time.
ARISAIG will be a big price here but might be getting her act together. I loved the way she quickened up to reel in a good yardstick who got first run last time out and she should be well suited to the requirements of this race. She ran 10.82 for the penultimate furlong there and blasted past a rival who himself was quickening away from the field.
King Edward VII Stakes – 12 Furlongs – Group 2
This looks a strong renewal.
Aiden O’Brien is mob-handed in this contest with four runners, headed by DIEGO VELAZQUEZ. He was a good juvenile and ran really well on his return in the French 2000 Guineas when a bit too keen. He was less good next time out in the French Derby but was caught wide early and got no cover. Still, he was in trouble a long way out and I don’t think he shaped like a horse that wanted to go up in trip; that early keenness would concern me, too.
AGENDA was no match for the impressive but ill-fated Hidden Law last time out but that was a big step forward from his maiden win and he is learning all the time.
CHIEF LITTLE ROCK looks a stayer but he very much got the run of the race last time in the Gallinule Stakes, taking full advantage of a track that had a biased rail and was favouring speed.
THE EUPHRATES looks up against it and will need the visor to make a big difference.
SPACE LEGEND looks a promising colt. A winner on his second start, he was very unlucky not to land a Listed prize last time out, stopped at a key stage off a slow pace and storming home when in the clear. I’m not convinced the speed he showed there suggests he is crying out to go further at this stage of his career, but the ability is there.
THEORY OF TIDES will definitely improve for this stiffer test and has already shown he has good speed for a stayer at lower levels. He was impressive carrying a penalty in a novice last time out, winning in a solid time, and is in good hands to improve.
VOYAGE was impressive on debut, so much so that connections opted to run him in the Epsom Derby. He unseated his rider early there and it’s hard to know how good he is at this stage.
MONDO MAN was a good fifth in the French Derby last time out, throwing in the best final 3 furlongs by some way for a big career best. He showed plenty of pace there and this hard puller is another one who has a doubt over the trip.
CALANDAGAN is one over whom there are no stamina doubts. His two defeats have been when first time up and the form of his last win looks solid with the third winning a Group 2 since. He was impressive in that contest, going well clear off a steady pace, and he should be even better given a strong gallop. He’s got a nice running style for the track.
Last year’s winning trainer Ed Walker fields HARPER’S FERRY. This is another horse that may not stay, but he has a ton of talent and it’s interesting that he comes here instead of tackling the King George V Handicap on Wednesday off what would have been a fly weight.
Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes – 5 Furlongs – Handicap
I will admit that this type of race is not my strong suit.
The key race appears to be the Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap at York last time.
JUBILEE WALK made it 3 wins in a row there, blitzing home in a fast time. He’s unexposed over the minimum trip and can progress again.
VANTHEMAN and PILGRIM finished second and third there having shown more early speed than the winner. PILGRIM has since come out and franked the form, bolting up by 5 lengths in a minor handicap and going up 11lbs in the weights. That’ll make life tougher, but VANTHEMAN is only a couple of pounds higher than York and should go well.
Gemma Tutty is a trainer on the up and her BLUE STORM was a fine winner of the 3-Year-Old Dash at Epsom last time out and will be well suited to another fast pace here.
MOSWAAT shaped better than the position last time out and might enjoy the drop to this minimum trip.
BILLY WEBSTER travels strongly and should enjoy this flat track better than Epsom having finished behind Blue Storm last time out.
TWO TRIBES is sitting on a bigger effort when held up off a fast pace and the form of his Newmarket second on seasonal debut has worked out nicely. He should come on for that.
