The Shipping Forecast – 7/30/22 – Del Mar & Saratoga

Del Mar

Race 3

Comanche Country

Philip D’Amato – Umberto Rispoli

2-year-old filly; Highland Reel – Honey Hunter (Shamardal)

Previously trained by John Andrew Kinsella. A maiden from two starts, Comanche Country makes a nice positive trainer move here, coming from an Irish stable with just 2 wins from 51 starts lifetime, to a multiple Grade 1 winning barn. D’Amato is good off the plane, with a 24% strike-rate with first-time starters in North America, so this one should be ready to run big first time up. Comanche Country finished last on her most recent start, but she was swimming in deep water there in a Group 3, finding it all a bit too much at that stage of her career, although she wasn’t beaten far and wasn’t hard ridden late. In this spot, she is better judged on a really promising debut effort, where she split two fillies from good stables, one of which has gone on to ply her trade in Group races. Comanche Country didn’t really have any business running that well in a juvenile sprint in April – she is by a BC Turf winner and out of a mare who didn’t win until three over 10 furlongs, and was still one day shy of her official 2-year-old birthday there – and the fact that she could do so bodes very well for her long-term future. It’s hard to see how this extra distance won’t suit her on breeding and she has a bit of tactical pace to get a good sit. We figure she could run to a 65 Beyer here, which would set a very stiff standard.

Race 9

Lammas

Manuel Badilla – Abel Cedillo

5-year-old gelding; Heeraat – Spate Rise (Speightstown)

Previously trained by David Loughnane. A winner of three of his twelve starts, Lammas has mostly been playing his trade in mid-level synthetic handicaps in the UK, winning three times on Tapeta over 8-9.5 furlongs. He has had two runs on turf to date, and on face of it was a little disappointing both times, but on the numbers ran about as well as he had on an artificial surface either side of those runs and should win races on grass. He has moved to a yard with a moderate strike-rate overall but one that hits at 36% with first-time starters in North America, and first-time blinkers and lasix here, as well as a couple of bullet works, suggest that this horse should be tuned up to run well first up here. We figure he could run to around an 89 Beyer here if everything clicks, which would give him claims of hitting the board, but this horse is probably best watched here.

Race 11

Lady Clementine

George Papaprodromou- Joe Bravo

3-year-old filly; Churchill – Wind Fire (Distorted Humor)

Previously trained by Andrew Balding. A maiden after four starts, Lady Clementime has raced exclusively on synthetics so far in her career, but should be fine on turf. She has yet to finish outside of the first three, but has looked a bit of a weak finisher so far. On her most recent start she travelled by far the best, looked set to win with two furlongs to run, but hung left under pressure and was passed late, albeit by two decent horses. Lady Clementine is a half-sister to a 5.5f winner and out of a dam that won over 5f, so it might be that this mile is a bit further than she’d want, but she will at least have tactical pace here. Should be ready for a good yard and looks capable of running to a Beyer in the mid-70s, which wouldn’t leave her with much to find.

Saratoga

Race 10

Colosseo

Wayne Catalano – Joel Rosario

4-year-old colt; Street Boss – Alluvial Gold (Danehill Dancer)

Previously trained by Gianluca Bietolini. A winner of two of his eleven starts, Colosseo has contested some good races in his career to date, excelling himself last season when finishing runner up in the French Derby despite having never contested a Group race prior. He has been highly tried since but has ultimately struggled in good races, his best effort since coming when fifth of nine in a Group 3 at Deauville last August. He has had a couple of runs this season, finishing last on his return in a Listed race but returning to winning ways last time out in a weaker allowance race, which was probably the easiest race he’d run in since breaking his maiden. If nothing else, that proved there was some ability left and should provide a nice confidence boost. He has moved to a trainer that doesn’t really have them full bore off a lay-off and while he could potentially reach a 93 Beyer, that seems unlikely. He looks best watched, unless the betting is positive.

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