The Shipping Forecast – Del Mar – 11/9/22

Course: Del Mar

Race: Race 3

Horse: Gaelic Nation

Trainer/Jockey: George Papaprodromou – Umberto Rispoli

Breeding: 2-year-old colt; Sioux Nation – Scripture (Sadler’s Wells)

Formerly trained by Jessica Harrington. A maiden from two starts, Gaelic Nation didn’t show a great deal on his debut, but stepped forward nicely with a big effort last time out. Held up off a slow pace at a speed-favouring track, the son of Sioux Nation likely had little hope from his position that day, but made good late gains in the manner of a horse that has a fair measure of ability. The two that beat him there have both run well in Group races since, and he should have more to come as he gains experience. He might not get a run here and if he does he’ll be drawn wide, but he has an experience edge over most of these rivals and that might allow him to overcome that post. His trainer does well with his shippers, and we think he can run to a Beyer of 75, a number that on paper would give him a massive chance.

Course: Del Mar

Race: Race 5

Horse: Single Track Mind

Trainer/Jockey: Mark Glatt  – Umberto Rispoli

Breeding: 2-year-old colt; Mehmas – Single Thought (Teofilo)

Formerly trained by William Jarvis. A maiden from one start, Single Track Mind only made his debut 23 days about, but has quickly shipped over to the US to try and build upon a very promising start to his career. Although 40/1 for that debut, he made good late progress into seventh under tender handling in a deep-looking maiden at York. We give him a projected Beyer of 69 based off that run, a figure that must give him a very good chance here, even if stall 10 is not ideal.

Race: Race 9

Horse: Dandy Man Shines

Trainer/Jockey: Jeff Mullins – Umberto Rispoli

Breeding: 2-year-old colt; Dandy Man – Zehrah (Raven’s Pass)

Horse: Ti Sento

Trainer/Jockey: Simon Callaghan – Flavien Prat

Breeding: 2-year-old colt; Invincible Spirit – Golden Legacy (Rossini)

Horse: Mas Rapido

Trainer/Jockey: Mark Glatt  – Umberto Rispoli

Breeding: 2-year-old colt; Massaat – High Speed (Kodiac)

Let’s look at the Timeform Ratings of these three shippers:

Dandy Man Shines – 93

Ti Sento – 87

Mas Rapido – 76p

Dandy Man Shines, formerly trained by William Jarvis, is the highest rated of the trio despite never having won a race. Having cost 100k as a breeze-up, he shaped with promise on his debut, finishing third in a Conditions event, and was then pitched into a Group 2 contest at Glorious Goodwood, running on well from off the pace into fourth in a race that has worked out solidly. He was clearly well thought of by his previous connections who aimed him at races that he was entitled to struggle in based on his level of experience, but excelled himself and is clearly a horse of some talent. He joins a barn that can get one ready off the plane, has a nice draw and sets a very strong standard if he can run to his projected Beyer of 78, particularly as he is likely to improve again.

Ti Sento, formerly trained by Ado McGuinness, showed little on his debut, but proved a different horse next time out in a Listowel maiden, winning with plenty of authority by 3 lengths at 100/1 (weak form, with the runner-up having ended up in a Claimer). He was the same price next time out at Royal Ascot, but unsurprisingly could not repeat the act, beating just one home in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes (strong form). He hasn’t been seen since then, and getting this mile distance isn’t a guarantee on breeding, but we think he should be capable of running to around 67 Beyer, which would give him a chance on pure numbers. That said, he probably lacks the scope of some of his rivals here.

Mas Rapido, previously trained by Phillip Makin, is a winner of his only start to date. He was green there, but got the job done in decent style despite having had to race away from the rail with no cover. That form isn’t amazing, but he has plenty of potential to improve again. The big concern here is the distance; he looked a sprinter on debut and has a sprint pedigree. We project he can run to a 69 Beyer, if he can eek out his stamina.

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