The Way I Drew It Up – Tampa 11/27/2020

Race 6: Alw n1x 8.5 (T)

Many “pretenders” with figures earned that are overinflated. Speed will be factor here while Glen Hill Farms’ horse projects to be out on the lead early. After looking at this race four separate times.

  • Best Value: #1 Atone (6-1 & bet 2.0 units) I’ve been following this horse since a fan tipped me off to the bad trip up at Woodbine (thanks @cloudchoices). On debut was burned up setting blistering fractions down at GP. Three starts ago, bad trip and bad ride (see notes below). Two starts ago blitzed them at AP, albeit a weaker field. Last out didn’t look good over the dirt surface and down in tight on the rail while throwing in a non-finish effort. The two back-to-back 5f bullet workouts is promising for the stretch out. The connections (Godolphin & Trainer) win at Tampa at a 17% clip with 42 starts, so this isn’t too foreign for them. Value line stands around 4-1.
    • Trip Note (10/22): Good natural speed, stalked hot pace, blown by mid-stretch by stakes horse. non-finish. At times didn’t travel over the surface in the backstretch as fluidly as we saw at AP.
    • Trip Note (9/11):Dueled 2w earlier setting slow fractions and put in a massive middle fractions, geared down before 1/16 pole. Traveled well over surface.
    • Trip Note (8/16): broke clean and on top, rated oddly for no reason by jockey, settled pocket, hesitantly ridden on rail around turn with nowhere to go, tried hole, stopped, tried another hole and stopped at 1/16 pole. Looks to have had 5 spots of “settles”. Had quicken.
  • Logical: #10 Uhtred (4-1) There’s a good possibility a few of these speed types hook up and get this pace hot. If that’s the case, the wide draw of this stalker is perfect. Last out, after the freshener, took the easy money and blew by that field while being the only one making up ground late. Over the summer ran into adverse pace flows with no speed to help this one close. Overall figures are above this bunch and the class kept gives confidence those earned figures will hold up. Only issue I see with this one is this story has played out: 2nd off layoff, shipping into Tampa and losing at a short price.
  • Next Best: #3 Food and Wine (6-1) Crossing a line through the off the turf event, let’s look at the most recent three bodies of work to determine the validity of the form. Four races back (8/7) at Ellis was a victim of pace and horses with favorable trips. Three back (9/24) got the job done leading the entire way around, but looked inefficient, maybe more left in the tank. Two back (10/11) got the job done again in impressive fashion repelling a foe as they turned for home while being distracted/swerving late in the lane. Overall assessment is this Glen Hill Farms horse is improving, has a good post draw, and if brings the “A” game mentally should be hard to beat. Value line is 5-1.
    • Trip Note (10/11): good speed, bit more efficient, swerving late for 1/16 but final 1/16 looked good finishing straight and well (maybe something spoked this one?). Looked a bit washy on track, maybe mind wasn’t right on the day?
    • Trip Note (9/24): Rated hard in early parts of stage and horse was able to settle. Looked to run very inefficiently, even down the lane.
    • Trip Note (8/7): tended to a hot pace going two wide while the eventual first and second place horses came from off the pace, both with a ground saving trip until going wide as they turned for home.

Race 7: MC $10k 6f

With zero pace signed onto this race, willing to take a flyer at an unexciting bunch.

  • Best Value: #6 Sugar Britches (20-1 & bet 0.25 unit) Showed much better speed second start against what’s proving to be a good bunch: a few coming out of that race wining n2L levels. The slight class drop and the Lasix should help. In these type of class levels, getting to the lead is sometimes all it takes to get the win as many horses don’t like to pass others. Value line at 12-1 and anything less we’ll be off this one.
  • Most Logical: #10 Capturemenow (2-1) Has been racing at a much higher level and earning respectable figures but just can’t get past horses. Wide draw will help the jockey, Centeno, spot the field and plot the best stalking trip. Trainer is 26% moving turf to dirt in maiden claiming events ($10-50k tags) with a $2.27 ROI (n=53). That stat gets only better when only looking at Tampa (n=30) and winning at 30% with a $2.43 ROI. Value line is 2-1 but can’t trust.

Race 8: Clm $16k n3L 8f (T)

Comes down to logical horses in here.

  • Most Logical: #8 Juan Pablo (7/2 & Bet 0.5 unit) Last out was too far back stalking a loose leader, bottled up behind horses until the final 1/16th. Consistently runs a good race and figures to do so here. In these n3L events, sometimes just finding a horse who is always knocking on the door is good enough to get the job done.
  • Next Best: #9 Valiant Virtue (5-1) Trainer is 27% after giving horses a layoff. Today’s spot fits well with the slightly class drop. Has proven to run well over the Tampa surface and be forwardly placed. Without much pace signed on today, that should be a winning recipe.
  • Beatable Favorite: #3 Skole (2-1) Not sure why this one is favored as this horse has yet to prove success going a route. The sprint race form is tough to compare. Will be forwardly placed today but doubt can fend off the late closers/stalkers.

Race 9: Clm $16k 8f (T)

Open claiming company with a value play.

  • Best Value: #10 Noble Intentions (6-1 & bet 1.0 units) Last out, off a brief layoff, tended the hot pace with the 2/5 favorite (eventual winner) and was forced to go two wide and eventually faded the final furlong. Two back was trying to quicken past a 25-1 shot who was loose and against the pace flow. Today should get an honestly run race with a more firm footing down over the Tampa track. Value line is 5-1.
  • Next Best: #7 Morgan’s Z Va (9/2) Looks to be a bit off form, but that might offer value. Gets back to the preferred surface where this one has notched two victories. Looks to always work well in the morning. $16k open tag company fits well.

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