Several upsets on Friday’s card have led to a carryover of more than 93k in today’s all-stakes pick 5 sequence.
Race 8: (leg 1): #2 Roja Redemption (15-1), #3 Worthington (9/2), #4 Santorini (3-1), and #12 Moon Landing (4-1)
Really tough race to start the sequence, looks like an evenly matched group. My top pick will be #2 Roja Redemption. Always tough to win going two turns on debut, but he did just that while going wide on both turns and moving a little sooner than he probably should’ve. He understandably got a little tired late, but he still held off the deep closers and got the job done. He’s been training consistently heading into this, and his inside draw could help him sit a bit closer to the pace this time. Looks like Ramos had his choice of the Lobo runners and he stays put here.
#12 Moon Landing is another that I thought moved too early last time. The pace that day was very quick on the clock for Turfway and he made the first big move into the pace. He made a wide move and hit the front nearing the top of the stretch before tiring pretty badly at the end. I can’t fault his rider too much because he drew way outside that day, the problem is he’s stuck way out there again. The good news is Hall of Famer Johnny V is in town to ride this guy and should give him a chance.
A murky pace scenario means logical contenders #3 Worthington and #4 Santorini should get good stalking trips near a modest pace and their figures are tops in the field.
Race 9 (leg 2): #8 Kate’s Kingdom (5-1)
I originally had a tough time with this race, but ultimately decided this is the type of race Irad Ortiz wins more often than not. It appears the pace should be honest and Kate’s Kingdom should be the one to come running late. In her most recent outing she put in a good late run to finish second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner who returns here, but faces more heat. I thought she did well to finish second that day despite a less-than-ideal setup, and she gets an extra sixteenth to work with today.
Race 10: (leg 3): #2 Founder (20-1), #4 Leblon (15-1), #5 Wolfie’s Dynaghost (6-1), #10 King Cause (7/2), and #12 Camp Hope (12-1)
I want to spread in this race, and my opinions are more about who I don’t like rather than who I do. I want to try and beat the likely favorite #9 Santin. His best figures would win, but he seemed like the rare horse that enjoyed that funky Churchill turf course last year, and he struggled a bit once he raced at other tracks. Furthermore, this is probably just a stepping stone to try and repeat in the Turf Classic on Derby Day.
Last time was probably the time you wanted #8 Ocean Atlantique, and I’d be very surprised if he can get loose again today. #11 Abaan has clearly lost a step and this is way shorter than he prefers. All of those runners will probably take money based on prior form.
If I had to make a top pick it would be #12 Camp Hope. He drew a terrible post, but hopefully that just helps the price. He’s had trouble staying on the racetrack, but has figures in the past that match up well here. I thought he ran well enough last time, closing from last to finish second (albeit beaten five lengths) behind Ocean Atlantique who got loose that day. This will be his second start off a long layoff and improvement is likely.
Race 11: (leg 4): #5 Botanical (2-1)
I’m willing to single Botanical in here, even at a short price. I have questions about nearly all her other rivals here, and that last race she ran towers over the rest of the field. The main competition appears to be the So-cal invader Ag Bullet, but she drew the far outside post and she hasn’t been facing much in those races. And most of the runners in here have made jumps in figures with the addition of lasix, which won’t be administered in today’s event. That won’t be a problem for Botanical as that big effort last time (91 Beyer) was earned without Lasix. I love the versatility she’s shown in her races so I’m confident she’ll be in a good spot regardless of the pace scenario. If she runs back to that big number-or anything close to it really-she should win this race.
Race 12 (leg 5): #10 Two Phil’s (7/2) and #11 Wadsworth (8-1)
The #1 Major Dude will probably take a lot of money with these connections, but I don’t want to take a short price on a horse that I don’t think has a major edge over his rivals, especially since he’s a question mark over this surface.
My top pick is yet another three year old from the deep deep deep Brad Cox barn and that’s #11 Wadsworth. He’s been a whole different animal since being gelded and switching to the synthetic. He demolished a maiden race on the lead with an 82 Beyer, but his first start against winners was also impressive. He earned the same figure(82), but this time he sat just off the pace and never really got comfortable behind and between rivals. This proved to be no issue for him, and he ran away from the competition once he swung wide at the top of the stretch. I’m hoping this outside draw will help him settle better while racing in the clear from just off the pace. He has to improve on figures to win, but I think it’s reasonably likely he takes a jump forward with paired-up Beyer tops.
The other horse I need is #10 Two Phil’s. There’s a chance he may want a cutback in distance, but he may be able to overcome that today as the “best” horse in the field. He’s been facing much better competition in his last couple starts, two back he finished between two of the better Derby prospects this year in Instant Coffee and Confidence Game. And last time he made the first move into the hot pace of the Risen Star before tiring to finish third. He supposedly trained really well over the synthetic and is another that should be stalking the pace throughout and have every chance as they hit the top of the stretch.
Ticket: In order of preference (backups)
8: 2,12,3,4 (1,9)
9: 8 (2,1,5,3)
10: 12,4,5,10,2 (none)
11: 5 (none)
12: 11,10 (1,3)
