Race 3: #10 Hurry Hurry (5-1) and #12 Pigalle (10-1) lock up in horizontal wagers
There are several horses with speed/stretch-out sprinters lined up in here and I expect the pace to be hot. The #10 Hurry Hurry will get first run on the closers, a trip he used to win convincingly on debut. He sat midpack off a very fast pace for the level, made the first move into that hot pace, and drew away in the stretch to win by nearly four. It’s always tough to win on debut going two turns but this guy handled the test impressively and I like that De La Cruz rides through the claim. Any step forward off that debut run will make him very tough.
A complete pace meltdown would benefit the filly taking on the boys, #12 Pigalle. The Blame filly benefited greatly from the stretch-out to two turns, winning from off the pace in a race where the speed held together well(2nd and 3rd place finishers were 1-2 the whole way around). The race was flattered when those 2-3 finishers came back to run 1-3 last week at a higher claiming level. Her Beyer was light (57), but her Timeform US number (88) puts her among the favorites. Hopefully the latter is a better indication of her abilities as she’s a square price of 10-1.
Race 4: #10 You’re Avoiding Me 8-1 to win
I’m willing to give her another shot today off of a poor trip last time in her first try against winners. She drew towards the inside last time and broke a tad slow. That slight hesitation cost her as she was among the six horses who had their sights set on making the front end. She tried to settle just off the pace, but had horses on all sides of her down the backstretch and had to check slightly in the far turn when a rival crossed over in front of her. I like that she at least tried to make a move after that, squeezing through a gap while getting bumped around, before eventually giving way in the final furlong.
I don’t think that effort was nearly as bad as it looked on paper as she never looked comfortable throughout. It doesn’t appear that there is a ton of speed on paper, and her outside draw should allow her to dictate the pace. Her maiden victory two back fits much better against these when she led all the way in a race dominated by the closers and the Timeform US number she earned that day(87) is co-highest in this field. A very slight drop in class and jockey upgrade can’t hurt her chances either.
Race 7: #11 Market Development 6-1 to win
With a good amount of speed lined up and today’s 6.5 furlong distance in play, I’m anticipating the come-from-behinders to have the advantage in this one. The big favorite got stuck on the also-eligible list so assuming he does not draw into the main field, #11 Market Development will be the play.
I really like his last start when he showed a new dimension by coming from further off the pace than usual to run a solid 4th at this level. He also had trouble not listed in the pps as he had to check in the far turn as he made his move. It probably only cost him a length or two but it definitely affected where he finished since he was only beaten a length and a half. He also had to pause briefly at the top of the stretch on two different occasions as he searched for racing room, eventually altering course to the outside and coming with his late run.
I like that he’s versatile enough to adapt to any pace scenario and this outside draw should allow his rider to see how the pace shakes up. His Beyer last out is co-highest in this field and he should be very competitive at 6-1.