We want More! – Del Mar Late Plays for Saturday July 24

We could all use more time by the beach and maximum security right?

Back from a brief hiatus, LIVE returned yesterday where the surf meets the turf: Old Del Mar! Today marks the return of thoroughbred Maximum Security, just 5 months after his astonishing victory at the world’s most lucrative $20-million dollar inaugural Saudi Cup. Since that February win, a slew of questions have bubbled up about the disqualified 2019 Kentucky Derby first to line-crosser! Now in the capable hands of Bob Baffert, Maximum Security and 5 others will compete in the 2020 San Diego Handicap (G2). A stellar race day awaits us! Let’s take a look at the later half of the sequence and come up with some smart plays! 

Starting at Race 6 we have the option of the $2 Pick 6, if – BIG IF– depending on our views of value after handicapping, budget allowing, we might take a swing for a big score.

Race 6. 5½ Furlongs (Dirt) MC 50k
Predicting the outcome of a maiden claimer with 3 first time starters and 7 lightly raced California breds 2 year olds; piece of cake right? Here are the ones that we can make a case for: Both exiting the same race: #3 Wedding Groom – Ran well his 1st time out at this same level. Attended the pace well and ran on well late #10 Dennis Celery looked like the clear winner in his debut but got caught late. If his stamina takes a step forward ready the winners circle.
A’s: 3, 10
Race 7. 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 50k
#2 Fiftyfive Chevy First time starter that has been putting up some amazing times in the morning. Latest was 3f in 34.1 – Will it transfer to the afternoon on race day? – We will see, gotta respect.
#4 Absolute Unit will get lots of action of the board based on connections and rightfully so. – A little concerned about his speed and the 5F distance better suited at 5½F – has a chance.
#8 Tilted Towers this 4 yr old has only raced once before today’s contest and that was over one year ago. – Been training very well for top connections and shows up here.
#9 Much More Halo Baffert and VanDyke – nuff said right? – Well Maybe but Maybe not. This will be the 7th attempt to get this well bred $400,000 purchase to the winners circle. Has been knocking at the door, 3rd off the layoff could be enough to have him kick it down.
A’s: 2, 9
B’s: 4, 8
Race 8. 7 Furlongs. (Dirt) Clm 50k
Lots of potential winners in this spot. After wood whittling and breaking some eggs the runners listed below are the ones that made the cut based on their projected ability and the pace of this 7F sprint.
#1 Handsome Cat returns to the dirt where he was much more consistent and should improve with the added distance. #4 Octopus Versatile Runner with speed – can he stretch that speed out to 7F, its a possibility. #7 Antithetical is coming off a really good allowance race over at Los Al going 6F – I believe there is potential here. #10 Zimba Warrior is the class of the field – with a good trip he comes from off the pace and passes the field on the outside.
A’s: 1, 10
B’s: 4, 7
Race 9. 1 Mile. (Turf) SnClmnt-G2
#3 Laura’s Light is an athletic filly that will run well on any surface and distance, but on the turf at one mile, Bullseye – I think she does it. #4 Over Attracted ran good numbers last time out setting fast fractions. With any a little improvement she should be in the money. #9 Warren’s Showtime will be closing but will need at least a moderate pace to be effective. #11 Applecross is a talented horse that has the top jockey and connections – On the bench for 7 months, could be setting on big return effort.
A : 3
B’s: 4, 9
C : 11
Race 10. 1 1/16 Mile. SnDiegoH-G2
The one we have been waiting for. Baffert has been quoted that he is nervous and excited for Maximum Security to run; aren’t we all! With all that this horse has accomplished and endured I believe in his ability. Baffert has been caring for this super talented colt for months now and this race has been the target. With that information and how well the horse has been training at DelMar – Close the book – #5 Maximum Security wins the San Diego Handicap. With that being said it would spice up any pari-mutual tickets that we are playing if he did not. – Who’s a good back up if Maximum does the minimum? #6 Midcourt has shown the ability to run some big races.
A: 5
B: 6
Race 11. 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 20k n1x
After looking at this race for 3rd or 4th time – I will give my thoughts on a few that makes good handicapping logic but also touch on few that could show up and maybe allow us to cash a nice ticket or two. #2 Nice Ice is dropping in class. Good Early Speed – if she can rate and sit a good trip, she is a solid win contender. #3 Peace Pipe Speed Speed and Speed – Broke her maiden last time out in gate to wire fashion on the turf. Sometimes that could be a play against but hasn’t dropped the anchor as before for new trainer Richie Baltas. #6 Smiling Rose is a solid runner – 3rd since layoff slowly moving back into the right direction – pace should give this one good opportunity to win. #12 Warrior’s Moon is not great on the turf but has the ability to win against these.
#7 Kristi’s Tiger has never run on the turf before but has that progressive style that would make her dangerous if she does – Big Drop in Class as well.
A’s: 3, 7, 12
B’s: 2, 6

With 6 races well documented and handicapped now comes the fun part – Ticket Construction! Goes without saying but please wager responsibly and press YOUR opinion where YOU feel strongest. – Let’s Gooooo!

I will take a small shot at the Pick 6 only leveraging my strongest opinions (A’s from above) – saving most the budget for the Pick 5
Race 6: $2.00 Pick 6   3, 10 / 2, 9, / 1, 10 / 3 / 5 / 3, 7, 12$48
Pick 5 Play with Budget of $150
Race 7: $2.00 Pick 5  2, 9 / 1, 10 / 3 / 5 / 3, 7, 12$24
Race 7: $1.50 Pick 5  4, 8 / 1, 10 / 3 / 5 / 3, 7, 12$18
Race 7: $1.50 Pick 5  2, 9 / 4, 7 / 3 / 5 / 3, 7, 12$18
Race 7: $1.00 Pick 5  2, 9 / 1, 10 / 4, 9 / 5 / 3, 7, 12$24
Race 7: $1.00 Pick 5  2, 9 / 1, 10 / 3 / 6 / 3, 7, 12$12
Race 7: $1.00 Pick 5  2, 9 / 1, 10 / 3 / 5 / 2, 6 $8
Race 7: $0.50 Pick 5  4, 8 / 4, 7 / 3 / 5 / 3, 7, 12 $6
Race 7: $0.50 Pick 5  4, 8 / 1, 10 / 4, 9 / 5 / 3, 7, 12$12
Race 7: $0.50 Pick 5  4, 8 / 1, 10 / 3 / 6 / 3, 7, 12 $6
Race 7: $1.00 Pick 5  4, 8 / 1, 10 / 3 / 5 / 2 , 6 $8
Total:$136

Lets Make it Happen!!

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