To set the tone for these posts, I will never be a top 10 pro-punter in the UK today like Rob Dove, never throw out winning pick 6 tickets on NBC like JK, nor have self-made models to give me an edge like John Camardo. My goal here is to give new players a look inside how to approach racing like a seasoned “regular Joe”, the way PTF and JK taught me through the podcast a handful of years ago. I’ll be writing $25 tickets for two key race sequences. The following week, I’ll take a look at what went right and what went wrong and post it on the blog. One last thing, if there’s ever jargon you don’t know (e.g. “second off the bench”, AW, etc.), reach out and we’ll help out.
last weekend at Woodbine I wiffed. We hit a $27 winner on top, we were drawing live in the doubles to ~$950, we cashed… for zero. It’s a great example in finding value and not keeping it simple. As my friend Matt Miller said in a text, a win bet should be your foundation. This is even more true when you’re betting in the increments us average players do. If we find value in a race, bet to win and feather in the exotics to score out big. In other words, don’t live or die only by exotics because your bankroll and psyche will take a beaten.
Woodbine Race 7: 7f (AW) $100k Duchess
Three speeds drawn inside (Stats Race Lens Pace Projector) and plenty of speed outside. This will force at least a few horses to go and I’m going to look for a horse to sit 2-4 lengths off and work out a trip at a price.
- Best Value: #9 Painting (10-1): She isn’t the fastest nor classiest on paper. But! She made up ground on a loose leader while weaving through traffic in the last 3/8. With 3 y/o’s, I look for these athletic moves that just didn’t setup well for a young horse who has plenty of upside still. This horse also gets Lasix for first time and a decent post between all the speeds.
- Most Logical: #7 La Feve (3-1): class of the field running in grade 3’s, never really had a pace to run into and this should setup well for this one. Also I like the works of the AW at Fairhill – this one should be ready to go second off the bench. I don’t love the value here so won’t be betting anything through this horse. If using in bigger multi-race wagers, don’t leave off.
- Next Best: #8 Wings of Dawn (5-1): should get another stalking trip, cuts back, and cross out the dirt try at Belmont.
Woodbine Race 8: 8f (T) Claimer $25k
Another muddy paced turf race with no clear speed.
- Most Logical: #3 Rince Tapaigh (4-1): Expect this price to drift up because buried in the pp’s is some much better pace setting races that we’re looking for. The poly form has really muddied this ones abilities. I would expect Luis to take to the lead and kick clear. It should be noted, ever time this trainer enters the horse for a tag (also owns the horse), this horse win as of late (3-3). Good angle to look for with a trainer winning at such a clip, even more so when the trainer owns the horse (10-16 finishing in the money at WO).
- Next Best: #1 Belle Danseuse (2-1): hit or miss horse who could easily grind this field out sitting a dream trip on the rail and kicking home if no one else pushes the pace.
Woodbine Suggested non-soul crushing wager ($25)
- R7 Double $5 9 w 3
- R8 Win $20 = 3 Rince
Monmouth Race 10: 5f (T) Tryo Stakes $75k
Interesting race with Wards two Ascot runners. The curious thing is only one was green on debut and showed more second start (Karak)
- Best Value:#5 Now Is (12-1): broke strongly from the 8 post (better position today) and blazed going an extra furlong only to fade. This one has strong upside and will look to create value here with this one.
- Most Logical: #7 Karak – This one was green down the lane and ran a stormer last out state side. No doubt she will take to the lead and be done with this group.
Monmouth Race 11: 6f OC $16k n1x
In the salty bunch, we’ll keep looking for upside with younger horses when they’re runnin big figures and having good works.
- Best Value: #5 Prospective Belle (8-1): Has ran amazing stalking races and the speeds in the race could duel out and set up perfectly for this one. The hot trainer doesn’t hurt this horses chances either.
- Logical: #7 Whip Me Into (2-1): Might freak if gets back to form and stalks a trip.
- Exotic Use: #1 Wishful Quality (9/2): Gets the rail and has the speed. The bullet work two back signals all systems a go.
Monmouth Suggested non-soul crushing wager ($25)
- Race 11: Win $10 5
- Race 10: Double $10 7 w 5, $5 5 w 5