Woodbine 6/12/2021

Woodbine is BACK! Let’s dive right into the late pick sequence.

Race 8: Mdn $123k 8f (T)

Will be using the Cassee firsters a bit defensively as nothing stands out for me. The favorite looks a bit weak here and will be standing against

  • A+/Best Value: #3 Lemon Crinkle (20-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Almost 12 months since the last running for this one. She showed an ability to put herself in position and provide a decent turn off foot. Around the 1/16 pole this one was wrapped up, assuming there was a mild “ouchy” and the reason for the sideline. Has been in the hands of Motion as of this week and the new trainer we can assume is still connected to the Motion barn. Today should get a perfect stalking trip along the rail (where we saw a lot of favorability last season) and get the close.
  • A/Next Best: #6 Bequia (15-1) Did best running on the turf last Fall. That race was a poorly timed ride into the pace collapse. Could get a similar setup today with speed drawn to the outside. Stein gets back aboard to move this one up.
  • A/Consideration: #4 Astrological (6-1) Solid works coming in, known connections, good jockey mount
  • A/Consideration: #2 Lady Moonshine (10-1) Solid works, good jockey (mirror of above)
  • Beatable #5 Speightstown Shirl (8/5) Not buying that figure earned in the last race (slow early pace setup helped this one notch a perfect trip). If you can believe that, then this horse falls back in the mix of the bunch: will be stuck between horses and is not the fastest nor has shown a big ability to quicken, even when given slow pace figures in the race.

Race 9: OC $62k 7.5f (T)

Great to see some of these horses coming back to Woodbine. Looking for sneaky value in a race where the favorite is likely to be bet down to evens.

  • A/Best Value #7 Afleet Katherine (3-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Last two outings she was well out classed, so we’ll excuse those efforts. Races 3 and 4 back were strong showings, yet coming up just short. The first two races this one ran get me excited. Won maiden on turf, jumped into allowance won, and both efforts were on par with the rest of this bunch.
  • A/Most Logical: #5 Another Time (2-1) Likely will be even money on the day. Loved this horse last year and think this one can get the job done easily, on the front end and kicking clear.

Race 10: Mdn Clm $40k 7f  

Not seeing too much pace and plenty of pretender types in here.  

  • A/Best Value: #11 Moonlight Silence (12-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Last out was against the pace flow and traveling widest of all. That move seems to never work out at Woodbine in these maiden levels: drop back, travel wide and hope for the pace collapse upfront. Today with a little race luck should be in contention as they hit the 1/8th pole. The added distance should help this grinder style of running we saw on debut.
  • A/Next Best #2 Ostracize (3-1) Best figures in this bunch and Casse wins 21% of the time on synth. Don’t love the 0 for 9 efforts, but trying something new with a milder bunch might help.
  • B/Consideration: #5 Orbaline (8-1) On debut faced a wicked tough bunch. The drop in class, strong works and Attard firing with a profitable $2.12 ROI with runners over 180 day layoff is enough for me to use.

Race 11: Mdn Clm $15k 6.5f

Big story is the new trainer for the favorite, will this one be ready to fire? I’m banking the favorite won’t fire after the long layoff with the unfamiliar trainer.

  • A/Top Choice/Cold Single: #8 Naitaka (10-1 & bet 2.0 unit) Has run two decent races and looks to step forward again. On debut showed great speed without the jockey asking. At the top of the stretch the jockey didn’t even ask the horse (assuming the trainer knew this horse would be short). Last out had a bit of trouble but still kept on terms with the pack while against the pace flow.

(Bonus Race) Race 3: Alw 8.5f (T) 

  • Top Choice: #3 Inthewinnerscircle (7/2 & bet 1.0 unit) Tough bunch but we feel this one has a hidden edge. The last two races were gracing grade stakes caliber horses. Today should get a cozy trip and won’t have to chasing down the likes of Jouster or Con Lima. The price should be nice, too.

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