Race 8: Star Shoot Stakes $100k 6f (AW)
Race looks to be stepping stone to stretch out or bigger stakes plans for many of these 5 month layoff types. Don’t really have a strong opinion.
- Most Logical #2 Owlette: will be a dead send and no one is likely to catch her. But I expect some pace pressure that might setup for the #1 between #4 Gizmo Flash, #9 Two Sixty and #10 New York Grove (on the fence if this one will send).
- Best Value #1 Take Charge Eh: I like the fitness edge here. The previous two 2020 starts were way over matched with Foolish Humor (next out winner).
- Vulnerable Favorite #10 New York Grove: I don’t want to put this one in the “beatable favorites” as so many of these horses have question marks of fitness on long layoffs. Undoubtedly has been running against much stronger. The Fair Hill works look strong but the wide post draw and unclear race shape leaves me off this one at a short price.
Race 9: HCP $20k 5.5f (AW)
Tons of speed from horses both on the inside and outside. Track configuration in relation to post position is so important. At the 5.5f, if there’s both inside and outside speed, those horses on the outside are likely to get stuck wide going into the turn. Everyone, including the jockey colony, sees Kitchen Fire as the blatant and vulgar speed of the speed and can’t be let to sprint clear in the first furlong of this race. This should cause a pace duel with those drawn to the inside with speed like #5 Sure Would Forest #3 Walkabout Creek and #2 Marten River.
- Best Bet #2 Marten River (8-1, would play win bets at anything higher than 5-1) – Based on replays, this one has natural gate speed (gets away very quickly from the gate without much asking) and should be best of speed. There’s some huge work out and has shown can perform off a long layoff. Last outing clearly showed that the 0.5f less today will be better suited. Note that the past three starts this horse has been posted 10, 7, 8. Today’s inside draw should flatter.
- Most Logical #10 Western Trouble (6-1 – hoping for higher odds) – Last outing was a bit of a trip. Placed in tight as the pace crawled in front based on the blue coded fractions on TimeForm US pace figured on DRF formulator. The crowding prevented this one from making a move at the right moment. By the time the rail finally opened up, the eventual winner had long ago made the winning move. To clarify the “winning move” concept, think if you were jogging with a friend for a mile. As you make the final turn up your home street with only 25 yards left to run, you both agree to sprint to the end in a race. The only catch, your friend took off sprinting before you could react and is well ahead of you. That early “move” puts your friend in the winner circle because there’s making up that distance in the short sprint.
- Next Best #7 Call Me Wally (5/2): Projects to get the same stalking setup as Western Trouble and is a perfect 2-2 at distance. The big “but” here is the 8 year old has proven to not enjoy a long layoff.
- Fade Candidate #9 Kitchen Fire (4-1): Likely going to be parked wide going into the first turn. Prefer other inside speed as will look elsewhere.
Race 10: Alw Nx1 6.5f (T)
Not clear where the speed will come from in this event so we’re singling a horse. We see a great trip angle here and a beatable favorite to fade.
- Most Logical #4 American Tap (4-1 but expect to see an overreaction to the bad trip and project 2-1 or 5/2)– Bless head on replays. Watching the pan view of the last race looks like nothing happened that last trip, just a bad break. However, a closer look of the head-on replay reveals this horse got absolutely smashed by 2 horses, being pushed 4 paths into rail (horse started from post 1). Then the poor horse gets several bumps after the big veer. All the events took place within the first 100 yards of leaving the gate. With a clean break and a second off the layoff, this horse has serious upside.
- Beatable Favorite #8 Monastery Lane: Don’t be fooled to automatically upgrade this horse based on the close beat to Amalfi Coast. That was at a 9f event, where legs are likely to get more weary. That’s exactly what happened based on TimeForm US with the early fractions coded red (meaning the running was more quick than normal and likely front runners will tire). At this shorter distance, I can’t see this opening for a closer like this one unless there’s a drastic change of tactics and this horse tries to wire the field.
Race 11: Moc $40k
Chaos race where we have some good prices. PTF is on the #2 Hay Congrats based on the decent form and projects to improve with the first start as a 4 year old.
- Best Bet #6 Impressive Speed (15-1): Like that this one will be fit, had two terrible starts last out. one back was loose and didn’t look focused down the lane. On debut hit gate then another horse smashed into him. Only one to make the big move down the lane in that event.
- Most Logical #8 Firmly Grounded (6-1): Only one making up ground late and had a nice gallop out. Works look good and should be better positioned with lack of speed. Expect a stalking trip and a huge move down the stretch.
Wagering Budget ~$50
- R8 Pick Four* $14.6
- $2 base bet = 2 w 2 w 4 w 6,8 ($4 total)
- $1 base bet = 1 w 2 w 4 w 6,8 ($2 total)
- $1 base bet = 2 w 7,10 w 4 w 6,8 ($4 total)
- $1 base bet = 2 w 2 w 4 w 2 ($1 total)
- (saver) $0.20 base bet = 1,2 w 2,7,10 w 4 w 2,6,8 ($3.60 total)
- R9 Win Bet $10 on #2 Marten River (if odds stay above 5-1)
- R0 Win Bet $25 on #4 American Tap (if odds stay above 5/2)
*see ticketmaker.drf.com for more ticket making information
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