Woodbine 6/20/2020 – Coatney Review

The Recap from 6/14

Tough beats for us all around last week. Hoping to get back into the black.

Race 7: Mdn $123k

Not too many angles here with these lightly raced horses, many of which coming off 6+ month layoffs. Hard to back any with such a long layoff and unproven form.

  • Most Logical #4 Phantom Dance (3-1) Gets the gelding this Spring, has a recent run with a poor pace setup, producing a figure comparable to the field.
  • Consideration but not using: #7 Strike a Beat (8/5) Seven month layoffs for maidens just feels wrong, especially when trying to beat the maiden 7 other attempts. Had brilliant pace setups in last two events and still couldn’t get the job done.

Race 8: maiden OC 5f (AW)

Although there’s tons of horses here to look at, we have a trip and speed angle. Keeping it simple.

  • Most Logical: #2 Society’s Story – the jockey has two easy decisions to make. If the rail horse breaks well, stalk the speed. If not, win the race by taking the lead and rail. The grit shown with the bad trip and bouncing out 4 paths was visually impressive.
  • Beatable Horses: #1 Trading Bay – had everything go right yet faded down the lane. Can’t take at the horse price, especially considering the moderate fractions.

Race 9: OC $62.5k 8.5f (T)

There’s a few logical horses in here, but the long months of not running has me searching for a price.

  • Best Longshot Bet: #1 Say the Word (20-1) – What a beautiful mess of form to find some value. In the last start, the running line shows a firm turf course, but the horses looked to be swimming that day. To find a firm going for this horse, you have to go all the way back to September of 2019 over at Monmouth when facing Divisidero (ITM pod favorite and the true ring bet horse, a story for another day). So the last three races I excuse due to the surface and poor pace setups – too far back against too classy of horses. Fast forward to today, the horse gets a bit of class relief that’s hidden and has a leg up on most of these as raced back in March as a tightener. Gail Cox should also be respected here at 20-1 odds.
  • Most Logical #4 Neepawa (10-1)– clear speed in here and if we’re getting 8-1 or greater, we’re backing. Huge tactical advantage with minimal speed drawn in this race. I’m hoping this one uses all the speed possible and makes the closers, which happens to be the favorites, try to catch him.
  • Exotic Use #11 Lord Wimborne (10-1) – Last out effort looked to be a fitness run for the horse. Although the result was bad, the jockey gave a hand ride after the final 1/8 and still had a career best figure based on (TimeForm US figures). Had no pace to run into last out, shifted 3 wide and had a clear run but the leaders were too far ahead to catch. I expect this one to get a good stalking trip and reunites with a Jockey who has won on the horse before. Barber and Cassee know what they’re doing, I expect an improvement.
  • Beatable Favorite: #8 Sir Sahib (5/2) – clear class of the field. But is going to be very far back in an event which I feel is too short for this one. This horse seems to excel in the marathon type events (12f-ish) and needs that added distance. This is just a knock-the-rust-off type of run for bigger stakes ahead. At 2-1 we will pass.
  • Other Notables: #10 Faraway Kitten (15-1): was a Ramsey runner who is a stakes winner. Problem is I believe the Ramsey’s knew this one was over the hill and put up for a $40k tag. I would shy away from this one until proves success in a new barn.

Wagering Approach: $50 Budget

  • Pick Three with R7: $20*
    • $10 base bet = 4 w 2 w 1 ($10 total)
    • $5 base bet = 4 w 2 w 4,11 ($10 total)
  • R7: $20 Win Bet #4 Phantom Dance (evens or greater)
  • R9: $10 Win Bet #1 Say the Word (10-1 or greater)

Meet Stats as of 6/14/2020

  • Meet ROI: -$56.25
  • Wagered $171
  • Won: $114.75

*see ticketmaker.drf.com for more ticket making information

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Further reading

Woodbine 11/14/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: South Ocean $100k 6.5f (AW) The 6.5f distance will be the key in endurance for the favorite. SCR Best Value: #8 Gizmo’s BFF (20-1) Last out...