Woodbine 6/21/2020 – Coatney Review

The Recap

We made a mistake yesterday. Per the wagering guide, we played 80% of our daily bankroll through a horse we liked, but didn’t love. Moreover, we tied up 40% of the daily budget to a horse in the middle leg that we didn’t love, again. Poor showing of how to express an opinion with our dollar. There were a few bad trips, notably Phantom Dance in R7 getting stuck behind a wall of horses, but we had two good seconds. With a change of racing luck, the intro to this may have gone overlooked and never written. 

Race 6: MOC $25k 8.5f (T)

The first question: Is try number 16 at the maiden breaker the right number for the ML favorite? 

  • Best Value #8 I Dance Alone (20-1) Last seen in the Fall, has been party to many pace duels according to TimeForm US. Even being two or three lengths off the lead, the intra-race sectionals were coded red. With the strong bodies of workouts, I expect this one to show an improvement in a field where we can’t find a clear winner. Blinkers coming off is a good sign in my book. Theory being that this one has regained focus and they believe in the horse to do the job. Doesn’t hurt that Boulanger is called to ride with his blazing start to the meet.
  • Most Logical #1 Our Uncle Drew (5/2) Had a bit of a trip last time and the clear speed. But you have to really pause on the 0 for 15 around this level.

Race 7: Whimsical Stakes G3 6f (AW)

Hammer is back with Foxxy Belle! Such a tough race with plenty of comparable speeds that will be battling for an early lead. Expect this race to be decided within the first few hundred yards. If Jean Elizabeth breaks on top and no one goes, this one’s over.

  • Best Value #10 Foxxy Belle (10-1 – but expect 6-1) Full disclosure, I’m biased as I love hearing Tommy “Hammer” Massis on the ITM airwaves. With that out of the way, the 2020 debut looked to be merely a workout. The short rest doesn’t have me worried and the gallop out looks like she wants all of this 6 furlongs. This one looks to have the best finish and should stalk just outside of the speeds. The wide draw will afford Justin Stein a good look at how the pace unfolds and where the horse wants to be.
  • Most Logical #1 Jean Elizabeth (9/5 – but expect evens) Amazing horse but many things have to go right here for the second time this horse has drawn the rail (last time at AP on May 12th, 2018 and broke awkwardly). If this one doesn’t break well, then one of those early speed types like #6 Gamble’s Candy, #3 Summer Sunday or #10 Foxxy Belle will take over the rail position and shuffle Jean Elizabeth back. Let’s assume the rail draw plays out well, so many horses have to dead send and may cause chaos for this horse – pace duels, bad trips, and the like. You have to imagine Rivelli isn’t thrilled to be down inside with all the speed to the outside.
  • Exotic Use #5 Charmaine’s Mia (20-1) I suspect the connections all know to not dead send this one in hopes for the pace to collapse up front. This one still could improve slightly second off a layoff with some serious workouts in between.

Race 8: Mdn $123k 8.5f (T)

On the first pass, there wasn’t any standout horses we could find. Maybe a few trips and a breeding angle will unlock value.

  • Best Value #7 Keepme In Thegame (8-1) Let’s get into the data first before addressing this horse’s past performances. Catherine Day Phillips has a positive ROI ($2.29) and 22% win percent for starters over past 5 years with layoffs 6 months or greater (n=36). In addition, the Dam’s foals are winning at 25% with turf routers among the five foals, one of which includes New Money Honey (grade one winner) and Coconut Shrimp (another stakes placed horse). Onto the good bits of the PP’s. Looking at the past company, this one has been running against some salty competition trying to break the maiden. The previous runnings, although with poor results, contained strong sectional TimeForm figures, putting this horse in a great tactical position to stalk or take the lead. The wide draw doesn’t have me worried either, as the 8.5 turf allows for plenty of time to gain position due to the one turn configuration. To button up this story, I think this horse was sent to Catherine Day Phillips intentionally to let this one grow into a four year old. After dropping a massive bundle of cash on this horse ($435k) and several meek maiden attempts, I would be searching for an expert to turn this one around, too.
  • Next Best #1 Sansa’s Vow (6-1) The figures fit on paper for this one to be up near the front, if not on the lead. BUT tread very lightly with this one. In the last running, this horse did not want to run in a straight line. See that comment that says “Taken up 1st turn”? Based on the head on replay, this horse darted near the fence causing its own bad trip (maybe a future hurdlers?). Further into the race, the stretch drive was a lug fest, 4 paths here, 4 paths there.
  • Beatable Favorite #2 Candy’s Dream (2-1) The last race appears to be an anomaly in terms of results as the figures fit this horse just right, a few ticks below the rest of this bunch. To boot, this one doesn’t even have the highest Beyer Speed figure. Feels like there might be a bounce here.

Wagering Approach: $30 budget

I love pick threes and will be playing a small portion through I Dance Alone with a few logicals. My strongest opinion is in Race 8 with Keepme In Thegame and thus most of my dollar will be tied up there. If that one doesn’t win, I don’t win. 

  • Race 6 Pick Three: $2
    • $0.4 base bet: 8 w 10 w 7 ($0.4 total)
    • $0.4 base bet: 8 w 1,10 w 1, 7 ($1.6 total)
  • Race 7 Double: $8
    • $2 bet: 10 w 7
    • $6 bet: 1 w 7
  • Race 7 Win $5 on #10 Foxxy Belle
  • Race 8 Win $15 on #7 Keepme In Thegame

Meet Stats as of 6/20/2020

  • Meet ROI: -$106.25
  • Wagered $221
  • Won: $114.75

*see ticketmaker.drf.com for more ticket making information

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