The Recap
Great result for us yesterday. Our idea to tackle the pick three was right, unlocking great value with a 3/5 shot in the anchor leg ($1 paid $99, 3x the parlay value). Sadly, we missed on our first leg. But with the positive ROI on the day, no complaints.
- 6/6/2020 Leg 1 (Race 9) Too much speed for the 5f dash and the race opened the door for closers. Unfortunately we didn’t get our horses up. Some traffic trouble, but no real excuses.
- 6/6/2020 Leg 2 (Race 10) Our best bet with Another Time (paid $15.30) ran to the script we wrote, stalking the pace with a perfect trip. I’m still convinced this horse will win a graded stakes race in 2020.
- 6/6/2020 Leg 3 (Race 11) Our single won, but we were already busted in the pick three.
Race 7: 5f (AW) OC $62.5k
Track configuration is important, don’t forget. For this race, the turn comes up so quick that it can put outside speed horses stuck very wide. That scenario is on display in this race. Tons of speed here drawn outside of #3 Foxxy Belle (let’s go Hammer!): #4 Miss Savvy has to go, #5 Veil will want to press the issue, as well as the #7 Subzero Plus. Expect a few of these horses to have wide trips.
Most Logical #3 Foxxy Belle (8/5) best of the speed and will dead send. The layoff doesn’t feel like an issue with the latest workout. The last win was impressive, getting the wide draw and cruising.
Best Value #1 Hell N Wild (6-1) expect to see 3-1 and being second or third choice. The jockey will get to decide whether to let the speed go or take control of the rail. The shorter distance should help highlight this horse’s speed, something hidden when reading the past performances.
Race 8: 5f (AW) Alw n1x
So much speed signed on from post 7 to the wood. Every single horse has only one way to go, and that’s to send fast. Yesterday showed a few dashes favoring closers, this one sets up perfectly for just that. Plan for chaos.
Most Logical #8 Stormfuhr (9/2) Should get the dream setup to pass horses in late stretch. They layoff is a bit of a question mark, but that’s the same across all entries.
Best Value #3 Devil Magic (20-1) Woke up with first time Lasix. 2nd Lasix outing, should be able to be speed of speed. Workouts look good and trainer capable of getting a runner ready.
Exotic Use #10 Grom (20-1) Plotter style who likely won’t be able to pull of the win, but should have the pace in front to clunk up to hit the board.
Race 9: 5.5f (AW) CLM $25k n2L
Banking on the TimeForm US pace figures showing that there’s one clear loose leader that will relish the distance.
Most Logical #2 Silencium (2-1) I see this pretty simple, gets away from the gate cleanly and zero pace pressure from other horses. Couple good workouts and a 18% first off the bench lets me give this one the nod. In case someone questioned the last start, this horse was drawn out to the 14 post, was away a step or two slow, nudged to settle right behind the first pack, 3 wide move early and half-way through the turn. Emerged from the turn a clear leader and looked to have won the race, until… he didn’t. My guess is that huge early middle move to the lead took all the legs out of this horse. The half furlong cut back, if you can call it that, should help the chances.
Next Best #4 Kid Forester (5-1) Drops down to a class level that should fit well. Stalking trip and will be putting pressure on the top pick #2 Silencium coming down the lane.
Wagering Structure: Budget $36
Since my strongest opinions are the too loose leaders that should have an easy time of it in race 7 and 9, I plan to unlock value with chaos in race 8 and the ability to bet into the blind pool of race 9 (i.e. the odds in the pick three pool on the #2 won’t reflect the even money or less live odds I expect).
Race 7: Weighted All Ticket
- P3 for $4 = 3 w 1,2,6,8 w 2 ($16 total)
- P3 for $1 = 3 w 3-5,7,9-11 w 2 ($7 total)
Race 7: Kill Bets
- P3 for $6 = 3 w 8 w 2 ($6 total)
- P3 for $1 = 3 w 3,10 w 2 ($2 total)
Cover
- P3 for $3 = 1 w 8 w 2 ($3 total)
- P3 for $1 = 1 w 3,10 w 2 ($2 total)
Notes as of 6/7/2020
- Meet ROI: +$79.75
- Wagered $35
- Won: $114.75
