Woodbine 7/10/2020 – Coatney Review (Bonus Coverage Bet Back Play)

Emergency Write Up!

Sometimes we have a bet back too good we have to share.

Race 3: Clm $25k 6f (AW)

Speed is drawn on the inside and outside – when that happens, we believe it’s a recipe for a pace duel.

  • Bet Back: #4 Podgora (4-1) So many trip notes here. In the replay, notice the jockey gets the horse away slow with a bit of a stutter (the head on shows nothing but the pan shows it a bit). Then, the jockey pulls HARD on those reigns with hands moving slow as if part of the plan all along (the horse was on a 6 month layoff, so my guess is the trainer asked the jockey to not send, take back, make one run, and get the horse fit). Finally after 15-20 jumps out of the gate, the jockey drops the hands and starts asking the horse to go. This results in a big middle move around the turn trying to move into a hot pace. With better energy deployment and the good post draw, this one should sit second flight in the 2 path and close hard, I love the chances here especially with the call of leading rider Hernandez winning at 23% clip.
  • Beatable Favorites:
    • #1 Snippy (5/2) lightly raced 6 year old has only run a true 6f sprint once (last out) at the lower tag level without much success. Why take co-favoritism for a horse that is very much unproven at the distance and going longer doesn’t impress.
    • #3 Interesting Times (2-1) I don’t trust the year layoff for favoritism. If I was getting 8-1 in this field, that is an interesting prospect. This horse could be anyone’s guess and has only run one number that matches this bunch (5/18/2019) , so why take the short price?

Wagering Approach: $40

Race 3: $35 Win Bet #4 Podgora (anything at or above 7/2 as we don’t love seeing the 0-3 at the distance)

Meet Stats as of 7/6/2020

Just goes to show you can pick winners (17-1 with Skywire last Saturday) and not make money. Money management is the hardest part of this game for me (and I assume most).

  • Meet ROI: -$274.65
  • Wagered $389.40
  • Won: $114.75

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2 comments
  • Nice pick, Drew. The horse definitely outran its odds and came within a few feet of a nice score. Keep the picks coming. You’ve been right there the whole meet.

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